site.btaAllianz Trade: Bulgaria Among Fastest-Growing Economies in Central and Eastern Europe Through 2027

Bulgaria’s GDP is projected to grow by more than 3% annually between 2025 and 2027, making it one of the fastest-expanding economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), according to a new report by trade credit insurer Allianz Trade.

The optimistic outlook is driven by strong domestic demand, supported by rising household consumption and steady wage growth. With a forecast GDP increase of 3.1% in 2025, Bulgaria is expected to outperform most regional peers, trailing only Croatia (4%) and Poland (3.3%). Growth is projected at 3.2% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, positioning Bulgaria as a regional leader by the end of the period.

Alongside household consumption, investment will play a key role in sustaining growth, boosted by EU-funded projects under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and large-scale public spending on infrastructure and defence. The labour market is expected to remain strong, with unemployment dropping to around 3.3% by 2027. Inflation is projected to ease below the regional average, declining from 3.6% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2027.

Allianz Trade analyst Giovanni Scarpato said Bulgaria’s planned eurozone accession in early 2026 would strengthen confidence and stimulate economic activity. “Lower financing costs and stronger monetary supply will further support both consumption and investment,” he noted.

By 2030, Bulgaria’s economy is expected to post an additional cumulative 2.8-percentage-point boost linked to defence commitments, placing it eighth among 20 European countries analyzed.

Bulgaria and other countries in the region posted steady economic growth last year, with the forecast remaining at about 3% annually for the next two years, Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund’s European Department Helge Berger said on Friday. However, Berger noted that this is not enough to sustain convergence with Western Europe.

However, the report warns of global risks. Allianz Trade’s experts foresee limited direct impact from the ongoing “tariff war,” estimating only a 0.2-point reduction in GDP growth in 2026 due to Bulgaria’s small export share to the US. Still, indirect risks remain, from weaker demand among key European partners to supply-chain disruptions and delayed investment decisions amid global uncertainty.

Kameliya Popova, Managing Director of Euler Hermes Bulgaria, which now operates under the Allianz Trade brand, cautioned that rising global insolvencies pose additional challenges. Worldwide bankruptcies are projected to grow by 6% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, stabilizing only in 2027. "In this volatile environment, Bulgarian companies, especially export-oriented ones, should stay alert to risks. Trade credit insurance remains a crucial protection tool," she emphasized.