site.btaRadev-backed Formation Tops Mid-February Survey, Five Parties Clear Parliament Threshold, Two in Contention

If parliamentary elections were held in mid-February, five political formations could feel secure about winning seats in the newly formed National Assembly, according to data from the independent monthly face-to-face programme of the Myarа polling agency. Two more have realistic chances of crossing the 4% electoral threshold.

The latest survey was carried out among 812 adult Bulgarians through face-to-face interviews, using tablets, between February 9 and 15. The maximum standard deviation is ±3.5 at 50% share values. One percent of the sample corresponds to approximately 54,000 people.

Declared voter turnout stands at 51.5%, which suggests the possibility of well over three million voters casting ballots, the study indicates. Some 1.5% of those who say they intend to vote plan to choose the "I don’t support anyone" option on the ballot.

Among those who say they will vote, support is distributed as follows: a formation associated with Rumen Radev leads with 33.3%, followed by GERB-UDF with 18.9%. Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria gets 12.7%, Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning stands at 10.7%, and Vazrazhdane at 6.8%. MECh garners 3.9%, the Bulgarian Socialist Party 3.7%, and Velichie 2.3%. There Is Such a People and the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms are backed by 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively. The remaining votes go to other smaller formations.

The polling agency stresses that the figures are not an election forecast, but rather a snapshot of current public attitudes, subject to many uncertainties.

Data from a survey released on Monday by Market Links also places a formation led by Rumen Radev in first position among decided voters.