site.btaExpected Drop in Bulgarian Exports to U.S. Due to New Tariffs Around 32.8%, or 1.5% of Total Exports - Deputy Economy Minister

The expected decline in Bulgarian exports to the United States due to the new tariffs is around 32.8%, or 1.5% of Bulgaria’s total exports, said in a BTA interview on Thursday Deputy Minister of Economy and Industry Doncho Barbalov, who was contacted in relation to the entry into force of 15% tariffs on imports from the European Union imposed by the U.S. The anticipated negative impact on Bulgaria’s GDP from the imposed tariffs is about 0.35%.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump agreed on a trade deal to avert tariffs of 30% on imports to the US snapping into place in end-July. EU exports are now set to face single, all-inclusive tariffs of 15% on most products – higher than customs duties before Trump returned to the White House, but much lower than his threatened 30%. The tariffs go into effect on August 7.

According to calculations by the Bulgarian Economy Ministry, the negative effects on Bulgarian exports amount to a weighted average tariff of 12.5%.

Deputy Minister Barbalov pointed out that the EU is the only trade partner of the U.S. with a two-phase tariff determination. This means that if the previous tariff was between 0% and 15%, it now becomes 15%. If it was already above 15%, the rate remains unchanged. Barbalov noted that this approach has both advantages and disadvantages for Bulgarian exports.

Based on actual export data from Bulgaria to the U.S. in 2024, the average weighted tariff now stands at 12.51% for Bulgarian goods, Barbalov said. For example, medical equipment, which previously had a zero tariff, will now face a 15% tariff. Similarly, sunflower seeds and essential oils, which previously had a tariff of 1.7%, will now be taxed at 15%, effectively a 13.3% increase. However, there are also goods on the so-called “exemption list”—such as petroleum oils and antibiotics—which are not subject to the new tariffs. These help reduce the overall weighted tariff burden for Bulgarian exporters to the U.S.

Barbalov also reiterated Bulgaria’s and the EU’s long-standing position calling for a revision of the 50% tariffs on steel, copper, and aluminum, or at least the introduction of quotas, so that Bulgarian producers are not forced to pay what he described as essentially prohibitive tariffs.

Due to the significant volume of exports, the product groups expected to be most affected by the new tariffs include medical, surgical, and dental instruments and devices, as well as sunflower seeds.

The government’s support for mitigating the negative effects of the U.S.’s new customs policy focuses on compensating for the drop in exports to the U.S. by diversifying toward third countries. Barbalov recalled a recent annual meeting with Bulgaria’s trade representatives abroad, attended by Minister Petar Dilov. The Deputy Minister emphasized that it was agreed to prepare sectoral analyses jointly with businesses and to identify priority sectors for Bulgarian exports. The goal is to leverage the network of trade representatives to promote Bulgarian production and seek new markets.

At the EU level, negotiations continue with other major economies to expand the Union’s exports, and protective mechanisms are being developed to address the influx of cheap imports from third countries.

Bulgaria is considering opening new trade offices. "We will try to open one in South America," said Barbalov, noting that apart from Cuba, Bulgaria currently has no trade representation in that region. Bulgaria already has a trade representative in Indonesia, with which the EU is in advanced negotiations for a political free trade agreement, the Deputy Minister noted.