site.btaBosnia and Herzegovina in 2025: Deepest Post-War Crisis and Stalled European Path

Bosnia and Herzegovina is closing out 2025 amid its deepest post-war crisis and a stalled European integration process, while 2026 arrives with expectations of escalating political tensions ahead of the country’s regular general elections.

New conflicts instead of European path

The country entered this year with expectations that its European path would be unblocked, but after March 2024, when the European Council gave its political approval to opening accession negotiations, the Bosnia and Herzegovina authorities have still failed to take concrete steps to launch the process.

The start of negotiations was expected to carry particular symbolic weight in a year marking the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the 30th anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide - the most powerful reminder of the war of the 1990s and the tragedies that accompanied them.

These expectations, however, proved unrealistic, as turbulent political developments pushed the country into a new phase of conflict, even bringing it to the brink of armed confrontation.

The trigger was the conclusion of a court case against then-President of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska entity, Milorad Dodik. In February, a Bosnian court found Dodik guilty of failing to comply with decisions of the international community’s High Representative and sentenced him to one year in prison and a six-year ban from holding public office.

Dodik’s sentence, which became final in June, sparked strong reactions in Republika Srpska, where the local parliament adopted a series of laws aimed at banning the activities of state judicial institutions and police agencies on the territory of the entity. In response, the Bosnian Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into Dodik and two of his close associates over the adoption of the controversial laws, on suspicion of committing a crime against the constitutional order. They were declared wanted, and arrest warrants were issued.

This chain of events nearly led to a direct clash between state police forces and the police of Republika Srpska, which were protecting Dodik. Ultimately, this was avoided after Dodik agreed to testify before prosecutors, who subsequently dropped the investigation once the disputed laws were repealed.

Dodik was forced to repeal the controversial legislation under pressure from the current US administration, which later lifted sanctions against him. Washington, however, did not intervene directly in the unfolding crisis.

As a result, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitutional crisis evolved into a full-blown political crisis and was described by Bosnian and Serbian politicians alike as the country’s most serious crisis since the end of the war in 1995.

Early presidential elections ahead of general elections

Meanwhile, in November Republika Srpska held early presidential elections, just one year before Bosnia and Herzegovina’s scheduled general elections. The vote was narrowly won by the candidate of the ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), Sinisa Karan, with a margin of around 2 percentage points.

With 100% of ballots counted, Karan received 50.39% of the vote, or 222,182 votes. He was followed by Branko Blanusa, the candidate backed by the main opposition Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), who received 48.22%, or 212,605 votes. The opposition contested the results, and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Central Election Commission scheduled repeat voting in 136 polling stations due to identified irregularities in the electoral process.

Given that the newly elected president of Republika Srpska will serve for less than a year, many experts described the early elections as a rehearsal for the general elections scheduled for October 2026, when voters will once again elect a president of Republika Srpska.

Against this backdrop, all attempts before the end of the year to adopt two legislative reforms demanded by the EU - a prerequisite for opening accession negotiations — proved unsuccessful. Nevertheless, at the last moment, the European Commission gave a positive assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Reform Programme, a key step toward unlocking up to EUR 976.6 million under the EU’s Reform and Growth Facility.

As a result, Bosnia and Herzegovina, together with Kosovo, is exiting 2025 as one of the two countries at the back of the EU integration queue, while political tensions continue to rise as October 2026 approaches, when citizens will be called to choose their representatives in the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina.