site.btaConsumption in Bulgaria Remains Stable in 2025 but Expected to Weaken - Coface Analysis

Private consumption in Bulgaria remained stable in 2025, but is expected to weaken amid higher prices following the expiration of inflation-stabilizing measures, while political instability and coalition negotiations could delay the reforms needed to unlock EU funds, according to an analysis of government risk and business climate by trade credit insurer Coface.

At the same time, eurozone accession in January 2026 is expected to reduce trade costs and support investor confidence.

Coface's assessment of Bulgaria's country risk remains at B (moderate risk), reflecting ongoing uncertainty regarding the economic and financial prospects, as well as the potential for political tensions, in addition to significant exposure to climate and sovereign risks. The business climate rating remains A3 (satisfactory), with the observation that, despite a relatively open domestic market, the business environment remains secure, although difficulties in collecting receivables and certain institutional weaknesses may persist.

The key strengths highlighted by the analysis are a diversified and sizeable agricultural production base, tourism potential, low production costs, low public debt, and Schengen and eurozone membership. The identified weaknesses are the fragmentation of the political landscape which complicates the creation of a stable government, inefficient public services and judicial system, high levels of corruption and organized crime, and a large informal economy.

For 2026, Coface forecasts a very slight slowdown in global growth (+2.6%), compared to (+2.8%) in 2025, amid geopolitical, financial and social risks.