site.btaPositive ECB Assessment with Respect to Possible Euro Adoption by Bulgaria on January 1, 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) Wednesday said it assesses in positive terms Bulgaria’s readiness to join the eurozone from the beginning of 2026. “Bulgaria has made good progress towards economic convergence with the euro area since 2024,” according to the ECB Convergence Report. “This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to introduce the euro as of January 1, 2026 and become the 21st EU Member State to join the euro area,” said Philip R. Lane, Member of the ECB Executive Board. 

The ECB finds Bulgaria to be within the reference values of the convergence criteria and complies with the legal requirements. 

“Achieving an environment that is conducive to sustainable convergence in Bulgaria requires stability-oriented economic policies and wide-ranging structural reforms,” the ECB says. 

What the ECB report says

As regards the price stability criterion, in April 2025, the 12-month average rate of HICP inflation in Bulgaria stood at 2.7%, i.e. just below the reference value of 2.8%. 

The reference value is based on the three best performing Member States in terms of price stability, i.e. Ireland (1.2%), Finland (1.3%) and Italy (1.4%), taking their average inflation over the past 12 months and adding 1.5 percentage points.

Regarding the fiscal criterion, Bulgaria has not been subject to an excessive deficit procedure since 2012. The country’s general government budget deficit stood at 3.0% of GDP in 2024, i.e. at the level of the 3% reference value. Its general government gross debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 24.1%, i.e. well below the 60% reference value, and it has been well below 60% of GDP for the past 20 years. 

As regards the exchange rate criterion, the Bulgarian lev participated in ERM II in the two-year reference period from 20 May 2023 to 19 May 2025. Over the reference period, the lev did not exhibit any deviation from the central rate of 1.95583 levs per euro. Bulgaria has completed almost all of its ERM II post-entry commitments, but further progress is needed to address the outstanding shortcomings in the area of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. 

Long-term interest rates in Bulgaria stood at 3.9%, on average, over the reference period from May 2024 to April 2025 and were therefore below the 5.1% reference value for the interest rate convergence criterion. 

As for the compatibility of national legislation, Bulgarian law is compatible with the Treaties and the Statute of the ESCB, as required under Article 131 of the Treaty.