site.btaSnap Presidential Election in Republika Srpska Was Dry Run for Upcoming Regular Vote - FENA Correspondent

A snap presidential election was held in Bosnia’s Republic of Srpska on Sunday, with the candidate of the ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), Sinisa Karan, winning by a narrow margin. The election followed the conviction and removal from office of former Republic of Srpska president Milorad Dodik, who firmly backed Karan both during the election campaign and on election night.

Tijana Grujic, Bosnian news agency FENA correspondent in Banja Luka, said that the election itself is not particularly significant, as the winner is not expected to have the chance to make any changes in the 11 months before the regular elections. Instead, the vote served more as a dry run for the general elections scheduled for October 2026, with the winner’s short term becoming a stage for the SNSD’s election campaign.

"It seems to me that many of the ruling party’s supporters did not turn out to vote," she said. "The SNSD mobilized its voters, but their coalition partners did not. These snap elections were a sort of demonstration, a dry run, before the regular elections in October 2026, when the president of Republic of Srpska will once again be elected."

The latest data from Bosnia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) show that voter turnout on Sunday was 34.79%. In Grujic's words, this may be the lowest turnout in the history of modern Bosnia. Karan received 50.3% of the vote, while the candidate of the opposition Serb Democratic Party (SDS), Branko Blanusa, received 48.37%.

"Right now everyone is calculating - the SNSD, their coalition partners who are thinking about their own position in government, and the opposition as well," Grujic added. "And when I say the opposition, I mostly mean Drasko Stanivukovic, the mayor of [Republic of Srpska's capital] Banja Luka, who also heads the Party of Democratic Progress and the Sigurna Srpska movement, and who has been persistently positioning himself as an alternative and as the leader of the opposition," she noted.

Low voter turnout is usually "a bad sign" for the ruling party, but this time the SNSD has enough time to think through its strategy before the "truly significant" general elections in October 2026, Grujic said. 

Bosnian Serbs voted in the snap presidential election in the Republic of Srpska, which was called after the mandate of former president Milorad Dodik was terminated following a final court ruling sentencing him to one year in prison and banning him from political activity for six years for failing to comply with decisions of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt.

Grujic said that the termination of Dodik’s mandate makes this situation unusual in itself.

"Nothing like this has ever happened before. Once the mandate was terminated, political uncertainty arose over whether the election would even take place. There was constant public speculation - especially from the ruling SNSD - that the election might not happen at all, even though it had already been scheduled, because Dodik had appealed the Bosnian court’s ruling and requested an interim measure that would allow him to finish his term and make an election unnecessary. The decision rejecting that appeal came only a few days before the election," she noted.

She pointed to the weather as another reason for the low turnout.

"At first, people did not know until the last minute whether the election would even take place. Then the snow piled up, and many people simply could not reach the voting sections," Grujic said. 

The FENA correspondent also commented on the SDS's request for a re-vote in the cities of Doboj, Zvornik, and Laktasi due to alleged violations of the electoral process.

"First of all, the CEC has to confirm whether there were indeed violations in those cities and how many voting sections were affected in order to justify a repeat vote," she said. "I am not sure the SDS could win even in a re-vote, but that does not diminish the need to investigate any violations," Grujic added.

She said that the election showed that although Dodik is no longer allowed to run for any public office, he still remains the only true leader in the Republic of Srpska.

"He has a strength that he has always demonstrated in direct elections. Now that he no longer has that option, the SNSD’s position is weaker, because his personal influence among voters is weaker as well. Still, even though he is currently only the leader of the largest political party, the SNSD, he behaves as if he were still the president and people continue to perceive him that way," Grujic noted.

The journalist believes there is an understanding between Dodik and the United States regarding his formal withdrawal from office, the lifting of US sanctions against him and his close associates, and support for maintaining his influence at least until the next elections.

"It appears that Dodik’s plan is to gradually transfer his party responsibilities and power to his son, Igor Dodik, who is officially the head of the SNSD’s organizing committee but is in practice seen as the most important figure in the party after his father," Grujic said.

She also commented on the issue that led to Dodik’s removal and the calling of the snap presidential election - the clash between the authorities of the Republic of Srpska and the Office of the High Representative in Bosnia.

"I believe that it is time for the Office to reduce its influence and even to withdraw gradually. The High Representative’s authority is far weaker than it was ten or twenty years ago, when they could replace ten officials in a single day and impose laws," the journalist said.

She added that Mladen Ivanic, a politician from Banja Luka and former Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, previously proposed relocating the Office from Sarajevo to Geneva. This could gradually diminish the Office's role and eventually lead to its closure, as was envisioned when it was first established, Grujic noted. 

"Politicians in Bosnia remain in power by fueling conflicts and tensions that are often fabricated. That is why it is key to return responsibility to Bosnia’s institutions," Grujic said.

Under the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia (1992–1995), the country is divided into two semi-autonomous entities: the Republic of Srpska, populated mainly by Bosnian Serbs, and the Muslim-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks) and Bosnian Croats live. Each entity has its own government, parliament and police, but the two are linked through state-level institutions, including the judiciary, armed forces, security services and tax administration. The Dayton Agreement also sets out the role of the High Representative of the international community, who has broad powers, including the authority to impose laws and dismiss officials.