site.btaAnalysis Shows Losses to Bulgarian Budget from Unregistered Fuel Exceed BGN 550 Mln in 2024

Losses to the Bulgarian budget from the consumption of unregistered fuel exceeded BGN 550 million in 2024, according to a joint analysis released on Monday by the Bulgarian Petroleum and Gas Association, the Center for the Study of Democracy, the National Revenue Agency and the Customs Agency.  Despite a slight decrease in financial losses after the peak of the pandemic, the analysis reveals that the grey sector in the fuel industry in Bulgaria remains significant.

In 2024, 12.39% of the fuel consumed in Bulgaria was unregistered. This equates to 659 million litres for which no taxes were paid. The analysis estimates that the damage to the budget resulting from unpaid excise duties and VAT total BGN 578 million in 2024.

Diesel accounts for the largest share of the illegal fuel market in Bulgaria – 612 million litres, meaning that 16.32% of its consumption is in the grey sector. The share of gasoline is significantly smaller at 5.79%.

Experts reject the idea that most illegal fuel originates from duty-free petrol stations in Turkiye or from the misuse of subsidized agricultural fuel.

A key conclusion of the study is that illegal sales are carried out through high-turnover petrol stations by bypassing the National Revenue Agency's electronic systems with fiscal memory, as well as through departmental facilities in various economic sectors (e.g. construction and equipment).

The analysis shows that the number of vehicles in Bulgaria is steadily growing, reaching 3.83 million in 2024. However, people are driving less, resulting in a decline in average mileage. A key factor in fuel consumption is the increase in transit traffic, with almost 45% more foreign vehicles passing through the country than in 2019.

According to the Bulgarian Petroleum and Gas Association, this is the second large-scale study of unregistered fuel in Bulgaria since its pilot analysis in 2020, and it aims to provide the most complete and objective assessment of the market.