site.btaInternational Monetary Fund Predicts Faster Bulgaria Growth and Higher Inflation

Bulgaria’s economic growth will quicken to 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, the International Monetary Fund said in its World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

Inflation is forecast to reach 3.6% this year and 3.4% in 2026, up from 2.6% in 2023.

Published figures match the expectations set after the IMF’s mission to Bulgaria last September, whose conclusions stated that robust growth is driven by persistently strong private consumption, supported by rapid credit expansion and fiscal relief, while inflation is likely to moderate gradually following levels of around 3.5% this year and next.

The IMF has raised its growth forecast for Bulgaria above its April projections of 2.5% and 2.7%. Inflation estimates have also changed: the forecast for this year has been lowered from 3.7% to 3.6%, while the projection for next year has increased from 2.3% to 3.4%.

The current account balance is projected to remain in deficit in both 2025 (-3.8%) and 2026 (-3.2%), a deterioration from the previous April forecasts of -1.5% and -1.0%, respectively.

IMF projects that unemployment will decrease from 4.2% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026.