site.btaDefence Intelligence Service: If Kremlin Doesn't Change Its Aggressive Policy, Risk of New Armed Conflict Remains High

Regardless of the outcome of the war, Moscow will continue to escalate its aggressive policies. Currently, there is no direct military threat to another country or countries in the region. However, if the Kremlin does not change its aggressive policy, the risk of a new armed conflict in the medium term remains high. Moldova, Georgia, and possibly Armenia are the most threatened, according to the annual report of the Defence Intelligence Service (DIS) regarding the global and regional security environment in relation to Russia's war against Ukraine, published on the Council of Ministers' website. 

The goal of each side is simply to outlast the other. Signs of depletion in the fighting forces are already visible, and initial attempts at initiating peace talks have begun, the report states. 

According to DIS, in negotiations, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s primary goal will be to secure long-term legal guarantees for Russia's security, including maintaining a Russian sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space. Ukraine will be a secondary concern, which will be forcefully subordinated to Russian interests—dependent, without its own identity, independent government, or military-political sovereignty.

The report further states that Russia remains the main destabilizing factor in international security. According to the intelligence service, Vladimir Putin's re-election for a new presidential term has consolidated the use of power in Russian policy. Externally, the Kremlin has intensified the use of hybrid methods of influence, including creating tension within the Euro-Atlantic community and influencing electoral attitudes in European countries, the report notes. 

It is also reported that Russia has continued to restrict freedom of navigation and air traffic in and over the Black Sea by declaring dangerous zones for extended periods, despite its Navy having very limited freedom of action. The danger from naval mines, unexploded ordnance, and various unmanned and remotely controlled systems in the Black Sea waters remains, the report adds. 

The Defence Intelligence Service further states that tensions in the Western Balkans persist, despite the stated desire of the countries in the region to accelerate their European integration. 

Regarding instability in the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Africa, and the processes in crisis and conflict regions, the report notes that migratory pressure on Bulgaria will continue this year. "It will likely be relatively lower compared to 2024, but the risks and threats to national security related to illegal migration will remain. This particularly applies to the danger of infiltration by members and followers of terrorist organizations, as well as individuals connected to pro-Iranian militias (especially the Lebanese 'Hezbollah' and Iraqi Shiite armed groups)," the report states. 

In 2024, the global security environment was characterized by increasing militarization of international relations, the expansion of existing crises, and the weakening of international legal institutions. Information and cyber spaces were actively used to manipulate public opinion and achieve strategic priorities. Destructive hybrid actions against air and maritime navigation, critical infrastructure, and energy connectivity became increasingly frequent, according to the DIS. 

In its report, DIS also notes that based on its analyses, the optimal overall staffing of the service should be increased in order to effectively perform its tasks and acquire, maintain, and develop the necessary capabilities.