site.btaMedia Review: May 5

ROMANIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

The news media comment on the strong showing of George Simion, who won nearly 41% of the vote in the first round of Romania's presidential elections on Sunday. The next president will be elected on May 18.

Trud.bg reports that Nicusor Dan, with around 21% of the votes, will run against Simion in the second round. Segabg.com reports that Bucharest's Mayor, independent candidate Nicusor Dan, won 86,786 votes more than third-placed Crin Antonescu (often dubbed the "Romanian Boyko Borissov"), largely thanks to ballots cast abroad. Former prime minister Victor Ponta came in fourth with 13.05%, while Elena Lasconi, once seen as a front-runner, won just 2.68%.

Mediapool.bg leads with a story headlined "Ultranationalist Simion Wins the First Round" with 40% of all votes cast in Romania. Simion is the leader of the second-largest party in parliament, the Alliance for the Union of Romanians. He opposes military aid to Ukraine and same-sex marriage, and is a supporter of US President Donald Trump.

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Journalist Vladimir Mitev from the Romanian Service of the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR), analysed the situation before the run-off election. Romanians are showing their disappointment with recent years of governance in two ways: first, by supporting the sovereigntists; and second, by supporting the mayor of Bucharest, who has a certain reformist stance and is close to the NGO sector. Mitev said Nicusor Dan has the aura of a successful Romanian: "He is a winner of international Olympiads and has developed his own businesses. Behind him stand younger people, connected to civil society, as well as some from the IT sector. But just Bucharest and Cluj-Napoca would not be enough. Simion might win the sovereigntist vote for Victor Ponta to earn a total of over 55%. Some supporters of the ruling coalition's candidate, Crin Antonescu, may also end up supporting Simion."

Dan is faced with a difficult task, but there are things that work in his favour, the journalist said: "He has international contacts and was much more globally connected from an early age. He advocates continued support for Ukraine and closer ties with the Weimar Triangle (Poland, Germany and France)."

Mitev commented that for now, George Simion is trying to fully capitalize on his perceived closeness to Calin Georgescu. At the same time, Simion's party is a member of the European political family of Giorgia Meloni and the Polish sovereigntists, who are anti-Russian. There are signs that Simion is taking a more moderate and less anti-European line. It is yet to be seen if this is purely tactical, or if there will be an attempt to rehabilitate Georgescu, which will also face strong resistance.

POLITICS

Capital.bg reports that in four months, the National Assembly has adopted and gazetted only 15 legislative acts, including four  ratifications of international treaties and three laws related to the budget. All in all, law-making took the form of eight amendments to laws. In the first four months of the year, Parliament cost taxpayers some BGN 11 million per month. Despite minimal law-making, MPs' salaries keep rising. The base salary is about BGN 4,500, being set at three times the average public sector wage, with pay for seniority and committee participation adding around BGN 1,200. On top of that, each MP receives an extra two-thirds of their salary, about BGN 4,500 for hiring assistants and meetings with constituents. Altogether, a member of parliament earns between BGN 11,000 and BGN 14,000 per month. In addition to the MPs, Parliament also maintains an administration, a library, and the publication of the State Gazette. Its budget for 2025 is just under BGN 131 million, or nearly BGN 11 million per month.

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24 Chasa will serialize experts' opinions on the legislative changes that should be made before the next elections in Bulgaria. Some experts argue that AI, high-tech fraud and the need to amend too many laws are obstacles to admitting video recording of the vote counting as evidence in court. The strongest advocates for such a change are the parliamentary parties Velichie, Vazrazhdane and MECh. Velichie even entered Parliament thanks to footage from the vote counting and media reports based on it, which prompted parties to appeal to the Constitutional Court. Given that now a court-appointed expert must verify the authenticity of the recording and identify the people in it, MPs cite a shortage of qualified experts and say that courts rarely accept video evidence. Instead, the government is focusing on the training of election commissions, as at least half of the tally sheets are usually completed with errors. This has led to a proposal to set up counting centres. Meanwhile, GERB is in favour of getting new voting machines which will count the ballots at the time they are cast, and the Socialist Party has not taken a definite stance but favours resolute steps towards greater transparency. In contrast, the MRF-New Beginning is largely against revisions to the Election Code, arguing that the increased number of election commission members should do the job.

FINANCE

Interviewed by Trud, financial expert Nikola Filipov talks about the economic risks and opportunities facing Bulgaria in the context of US-EU trade relations, the adoption of the euro and pension reform. According to Filipov, the introduction of the euro is expected to lead to a short-term rise in prices due to rounding when national currency prices are converted into euro prices, which could be mitigated through effective regulation. Artificial intelligence and the IT sector are seen as key drivers of future economic cooperation with the US, while multi-fund systems are emerging as a crucial step in the reform of the pension system.

Having participated in the Trump Business Vision 2025 event on April 27, Filipov said the US President is expected to take a firm stance towards Europe. Imposing tariffs on European goods is a key pillar of his economic doctrine, so unless some form of agreement is reached between the US and Europe, his approach is likely to remain uncompromising. The expert does not believe a trade war would have a direct negative impact on Bulgaria's economy since exports to the US accounted for just 2.5% of total exports of goods and services in 2023. The indirect effects could be more significant through possible tariffs on Germany, which accounts for 13.6% of Bulgaria's exports. If a prolonged trade war occurs, Bulgarian companies that supply or subcontract for the German industrial sector could see a decline in orders.

Filipov does not expect real risks following the adoption of the euro because even now, Bulgaria's economy is fully integrated with the European one. To him, it is a negative that adopting the euro will make it easier to finance budget deficits through borrowing. Potentially higher interest rates on debt financing would serve as a brake on the accumulation of new debt. After joining the eurozone, interest rates will not rise substantially, which will allow the government to continue relatively easily with inflationary deficit spending of public funds.

Commenting on the mulled pension reform, Filipov said multi-funds would allow insured persons to invest their contributions in their individual accounts under the second and third pillars based on their risk profile and insurance cycle, in order to achieve higher returns and larger funds in their individual accounts at retirement.

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24 Chasa has an analysis of the advantages offered by voluntary pension funds. Unlike universal pension funds, voluntary funds are more liberal in their investment strategies and have achieved a return of 153.08% between April 1, 2002 and December 31, 2024.

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Segabg.com quotes BTA's interview of April 30 with Bulgarian National Bank Deputy Governor Petar Chobanov, who said that 25% of household savings and 32% of business deposits are held in euro. This suggests that, despite the highly aggressive anti-euro campaign led by the Vazrazhdane party and political and economic circles close to the Kremlin, Bulgarians are showing pragmatism and confidence in the euro, the daily comments. Vazrazhdane's attempts to block Bulgaria's entry into the eurozone have taken a farcical turn. During a visit to Washington, DC, three party members suggested to Congressman Keith Self that Bulgaria should peg its currency to the US dollar. In a Facebook post, the party claimed that this move would enhance Bulgaria's financial independence and strengthen ties with the United States. Keith Self reportedly promised to look into it.

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Interviewed by the BNR, Petar Ganev, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Market Economics, said Bulgaria should calmly await the convergence report that will determine whether the euro will be adopted on January 1, 2026, which now seems very likely. Commenting on concerns about price increases linked to the euro, Ganev said the past couple of years had seen a spike in inflation unrelated to the adoption of the euro. In late 2022, inflation hit 20%, and food prices surged by 28%. Now, annual inflation is around 3-4%. Wage growth continues to outpace inflation and the euro is unlikely to have a direct effect on salaries. In the long term, a major benefit of euro adoption would be the elimination of currency risk, which would support an improved credit rating, higher economic growth and stronger wage increases, according to Ganev.

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In an analysis in Trud, financial expert Dimitar Chobanov questions the timing of the Finance Ministry's dual-tranche bond offering totaling EUR 4 billion on international capital markets on April 28. This issuance was the first of its kind among countries with credit ratings similar to Bulgaria's, meaning that there was no prior benchmark to gauge investor sentiment. Another important factor working against the chosen timing is the date June 4, when the ad hoc convergence reports which will assess Bulgaria's preparedness to join the Eurozone are due. Credit rating agencies have repeatedly indicated they would consider upgrading Bulgaria's credit rating if the reports are favourable. That would lower the required return on Bulgarian government bonds, effectively reducing borrowing costs. A delay of less than two months could have made a difference, says Chobanov. However, domestic factors likely weighed in favour of issuing the bonds, particularly the need for funds in May to cover payments on existing bonds totalling around BGN 2 billion.

WATER SUPPLY

24 Chasa reports on an inside page that the water available to farmers in Bulgaria for irrigation has reached critically low levels. The reservoirs managed by the Environment and Water Ministry, which are used for irrigation, are only 38% full, according to the Ministry's daily report as of May 2. In comparison, a year earlier, they were 45% full. The daily cites BNR as saying that Bulgaria will continue to supply Greek farmers with irrigation water from the Arda River for another five years following a decision of the Bulgarian Cabinet and the signing of a declaration.

Greek media reported that on May 2, Foreign Ministers Giorgos Gerapetritis of Greece and Georg Georgiev of Bulgaria signed a Joint Declaration, which ensures the provision by Bulgaria of a sufficient quantity of water for five years, allowing the uninterrupted operation of the irrigation system and agricultural production in the border region of Evros after the expiry of the 60-year intergovernmental Agreement. By then, Greece is expected to have modernized or built new reservoirs.

24 Chasa says the Greek government has declared that it will take the necessary steps to reimburse Bulgaria for the cost of the water supply, but it is still unclear how this will be done. Meanwhile, the Kamchia reservoir near the Black Sea has a very low inflow. It is only 39% full, which is why Varna and Burgas are restricting water use to avoid shortages during the peak tourist season. Between June and September, the required amounts are twice as high as during the rest of the year.

WASTE PROCESSING

24 Chasa has interviewed Nikolay Savov, Director of Sofia's municipal enterprise for waste treatment, who says thousands of discarded receipts show that waste from neighbouring municipalities is transported to Sofia's waste treatment plant. It is operating slightly above its capacity of 410,000 tonnes per year, but there are no major issues with waste intake. The city has stepped up entry checks and now inspects every incoming truck for industrial waste, as required by environmental authorities. Municipal services are responsible only for household waste, not industrial waste, construction debris, furniture or tires. 

A current challenge is the illegal disposal of car tires during seasonal changes. Although there are organizations which recycle them, authorities have not coordinated their collection, leaving the waste plant to manage the overflow, similar to a recent issue with medical waste.

Each day, the facility receives 1,000-1,200 tonnes of waste. The plant produces about 180,000 tonnes of RDF fuel annually (roughly 500 tonnes daily), of which 300 tonnes are sent to contractors. The remaining 100-150 tonnes cannot be processed due to the limited capacity at RDF-burning installations in Bulgaria. Up to 300 tonnes of non-recyclable waste go to landfills daily, well under the permitted 450 tonnes. In 2024, roughly 50,000 tonnes of construction debris ended up in household bins, making recycling impossible.

ENVIRONMENT

Nova TV reported that oil-based formations had been spotted on the beach in the southeastern town of Pomorie. The Regional Environmental Inspectorate in Burgas has ordered the municipality to clean up the contaminated areas. Pomorie Mayor Ivan Alexiev said there were "oil clumps" along the shoreline, and their accumulated quantity amounted to one and a half buckets. He said this was a natural process in May when the sea brings up formations from the bottom.

SOCIETY

Interviewed by the Bulgarian National Television (BNT), psychologist Rosen Yordanov talked of a breakdown of social relationships. He was commenting on recent protests or aggressive conduct targeting doctors and police officers. "People are now dissatisfied with specific persons: if I go to the hospital, the doctor will not be engaged enough. If I have a problem that requires police involvement, they will not be committed enough." In his view, interpersonal relationships have deteriorated since the pandemic, which is also seen in politics in the proliferation of small parties and repeated elections.

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Investigative journalist Slavi Angelov told bTV the police are failing to cope with drugged and drunk drivers but are receiving a big pay rise at a time when the increase in maternity benefits has been put off. "In the last three years, public trust in the police has collapsed by 20%, based on a study in 2024. The current figures may be even more alarming, he said.

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The media report that incidents involving electric scooters are becoming increasingly frequent. bTV said a 14-year-old is in life-threatening condition after an incident in Varna Region. In just one day, three people in Silistra Region were hospitalized after falling from e-scooters. BNT reported that a large-scale police operation was carried out in downtown Sofia targeting reckless riding of e-scooters and electric bicycles.

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On Monday, the hospital in the western town of Pernik was joined by the first midwives dispatched from Sofia, who are expected to help save the maternity ward from closure. Monday also marks the International Day of the Midwife, said bTV.