site.btaGeopolitical Shifts, Security in Southeast Europe in Focus of Opening Panel at Sofia Economic Forum 2026

The sixth edition of Sofia Economic Forum 2026 opened on Tuesday with an in-depth discussion dedicated to geopolitical shifts and their impact on Southeast Europe. The debate focused on the role of the United States, the future of transatlantic relations, the importance of China, and the tasks facing the European Union (EU) amid a changing international order and security architecture.

Participants in the panel included former President of Bulgaria (2012–2017) Rosen Plevneliev, French Ambassador to Bulgaria Marie Dumoulin, Vice President of the Atlantic Club in Bulgaria Elena Poptodorova, and Plamen Tonchev, Head of the Asia Department at the Institute of International Economic Relations (IIER) in Greece. The discussion was moderated by Vessela Tcherneva, Deputy Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Rosen Plevneliev placed strong emphasis on peace and democracy, stressing that sustainable peace is possible only where rules and institutions exist. "Peace has never been and cannot be achieved through a deal," he said, adding that decisions taken by individual strong leaders at the expense of third countries do not lead to lasting stability.

According to him, the world is entering a difficult historical period that will shape the future development of the international system. Plevneliev argued that the United States can no longer serve as a teacher of democracy and expressed the view that the EU remains the most successful peace project in the world. He called for the protection of democratic values, human rights, and the European model of quality of life, and he urged greater understanding of the broader global picture in order to safeguard peace.

French Ambassador Marie Dumoulin, whose mandate in Bulgaria began four months ago, said that the accumulation of geopolitical shocks is creating lasting uncertainty and undermining the stability of the global order. In her view, Europeans must build their policies on a solid foundation and strengthen the strategic autonomy of the EU.

Dumoulin described Russia’s war against Ukraine as the most serious geopolitical shock for the EU, also noting the effects of trade conflicts and increased US tariffs on the European economy, including their indirect impact on Bulgaria through economic ties with Germany. She stressed the need to develop a common European defence industrial capacity, alongside continued investment within NATO.

Elena Poptodorova, Vice President of the Atlantic Club in Bulgaria, described the current state of international relations as a "perfect storm", shaped by wars, customs restrictions, unresolved regional issues in Southeast Europe, disparities between EU Member States and non-member countries, and the ongoing redefinition of relations with the United States.

Plamen Tonchev said Europe is facing a "triple shock": the return of war to the continent, changes in transatlantic relations, and China’s growing economic influence. According to him, Europeans relied on three flawed assumptions - cheap Russian gas, guaranteed security from the United States, and China as a risk-free market and source of investment.

"Instead of criticizing Trump’s America, Europe should also look for the fault within itself. We should and should have done our homework," Tonchev said, challenging both the audience and fellow panelists.