site.btaOECD Projects Global Growth Slow Down to 2.9% in 2025/26, Growth in Bulgaria by 2.6% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026

Global economic prospects are weakening, with substantial barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, diminishing confidence and heightened policy uncertainty projected to have adverse impacts on growth, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) latest Economic Outlook, published on Tuesday on the institution's website.

GDP in Bulgaria is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2025 and by 2.3% in 2026, driven by household consumption growth, which is supported by continued high income and credit growth, as well as higher government investment with EU funds. Exports will grow slowly, reflecting the weaker growth in other EU economies. Inflation is expected to rise and wage pressures are to remain high. The risk that the stable wage growth will impede the slowdown in inflation exists, the OECD warns.

Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, based on the assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May will be maintained.

The slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada, Mexico and China, with other economies expected to undergo milder downward adjustments. Growth by the end of 2025 is expected to be unsatisfactory, with global GDP increasing by only 2.6% by the fourth quarter of the year, and by only 1.1% in the United States.

Inflationary pressures have resurfaced in some economies. Inflation is estimated to be slightly higher by the end of 2026 than projected at the end of 2024. Inflation among OECD member countries is expected to reach 4.2% in 2025, compared to 3.7% in the December 2024 forecast and 3.2% in 2026, compared to the previous estimate of 2.9%.