site.btaEight Parties Would Enter Parliament If Elections Were Held in July, Shows Gallup Poll

Eight parties would pass the threshold for entry in the National Assembly if elections were held in July, according to a survey by Gallup International Balkan presented on Monday.  The data for the month confirm stable support for the ruling majority and certain decline in the support for some opposition parties.

The nationally representative survey was conducted among 800 adult citizens from July 11 to 23 using the standardized face-to-face interview method. The opinion poll is part of Gallup International Balkan's independent research programme and is funded with the pollster's own resources.

According to the survey, GERB-UDF remains the leading political force with 25.7% support. Sociologists attribute this to the Government's active work, especially its successes in securing funds under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and Bulgaria's inclusion in the eurozone. These factors strengthen voter confidence and consolidate the party's electoral base. The opposition's attempts to erode this support have so far been unsuccessful, Gallup notes.

The other two parties in the ruling majority - BSP - United Left and There Is Such a People (TISP) - are also showing stability, with support at 7.9% and 5.3%, respectively. Sociologists attribute this to the two parties' participation in the Government and their moderate political line.

Immediately after GERB-UDF comes MRF - New Beginning with 17.6% of the votes. This level of support is comparable to the result in the June 2024 elections – 17.06%, immediately before the internal party conflict in the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF). Combined with the actual collapse of the other MRF fraction, the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ARF), which would get only 1.4% of the votes if elections were held today, it appears that the traditional electorate of the MRF is consolidating around MRF - New Beginning, the pollster comment. Given the typically high mobilization of this electoral group in an election environment, the hypothesis is that support for MRF - New Beginning may increase in a real election situation.

The opposition Vazrazhdane party ranks third with 13.2% of the votes, showing stabilization after a previous decline. The exhaustion of the topic for or against the introduction of the euro puts the party in search of new topical causes through which to maintain electoral dynamics, according to the survey data.

Competition from Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) and Velichie - 6.1% and 4.1% support, respectively  - is becoming increasingly noticeable, the pollsters add.

If elections were held in July, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) would come fourth with 12.6% of the votes. The corruption scandals in Sofia and Varna (on the Black Sea), as well as political turmoil, are already having a negative impact on confidence in the party, Gallup notes. It remains to be seen whether CC-DB will experience lasting loss of supporters or will achieve stabilization.

Those who would vote for another formation amount to 4.2% of respondents, and nearly 2% are still undecided. 

In July, there was also some change in public trust in those holding high-ranking state positions. Trust in President Rumen Radev fell to 38.7%. Vice President Iliana Yotova also lost ground, with her approval rating falling to 29% amid widespread disapproval. Approval of Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov rose to 27.4% - a result that reflects public opinion of the Government's policies as a whole. National Assembly Chair Nataliya Kiselova enjoys a 14.3% approval rating.

Among the institutions in the country, respondents trust the Church the most, 46.1%, followed by the banking system,  43.1%, the presidential institution, 42%, the Army, 38.4%, the police, 34.7%, the Constitutional Court, 25.3%, the judicial system, 23.1%, the Government, 20.6%, the prosecution service, 20.5%, the Central Election Commission, 18.1%, and the National Assembly, 13.4%. 

GERB leader Boyko Borissov received the highest approval rating among the leaders of the main political formations, 22.5%, followed by Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov with 17.1%, MRF - New Beginning leader Delyan Peevski with 16.5%, MECh leader Radoslav Vasilev with 14.8%, TISP leader Slavi Trifonov with 13.4%, BSP - United Left leader Atanas Zafirov with 8.7%, Velichie leader Ivelin Mihaylov with 8.2%, Continue the Change leader Assen Vassilev with 7.6%, and Democratic Bulgaria co-chair Atanas Atanasov with 7.4%.