site.btaBulgarian Finance Ministry Forecasts 3% Economic Growth in 2025

Bulgarian Finance Ministry Forecasts 3% Economic Growth in 2025

Bulgaria’s economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, followed by a slight slowdown to 2.7% in 2026, according to the Finance Ministry’s Autumn Macroeconomic Forecast published on the Ministry’s website.

The Ministry maintained its 2025 growth outlook compared to the summer forecast and raised its 2026 projection by 0.2 percentage points.

Between 2027 and 2028, GDP growth is projected to range between 2.5% and 2.4%, slightly higher than the spring forecast, which projected growth of 2.4% to 2.2%.

Annual inflation accelerated to 4.1% in September 2025, based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Inflation is expected to ease to 3.9% by year’s end, with an average annual rate of 3.6%. By the end of 2026, consumer price growth is projected to slow to 3.3%, reflecting a moderation in wage growth and household consumption. Core inflation components, particularly services, will continue to drive the overall price index. Average annual inflation in 2026 is expected to remain close to 2025 levels, reaching 3.5%.