site.btaFiscal Council Expects Upgrade of Bulgaria's Credit Rating Next Month Thanks to Green Light for Euro Adoption

Bulgaria's credit rating could be upgraded in the coming month as a result of the approval for joining the euro area, according to an analysis by Bulgaria's Fiscal Council.

Statistics show that over the past 20 years every country that has received approval to join the eurozone has had its credit rating upgraded within one month.

Approval to adopt the euro has always had a positive effect on a country's credit rating, as it opens the way for integration with the world's largest regional economic bloc, says the analysis, which looks at the upgrade in the credit ratings of Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia and Estonia after countries get the green light to adopt the euro.

At the end of May, the international rating agency Standard & Poor's Global Ratings (S&P Global Ratings) affirmed Bulgaria's long-term and short-term foreign and local currency credit ratings at ‘BBB/A-2’ with a positive outlook. The agency said that if the country becomes a member of the euro area, an upgrade could follow. On the other hand, if the prospect of euro adoption becomes less likely, Bulgaria's rating outlook could be downgraded from ‘positive’ to ‘stable’.

The other major international rating agency Fitch Ratings in mid-April this year affirmed Bulgaria's long-term foreign and local currency credit rating at ‘BBB’ with a positive outlook.

Confirmation that Bulgaria has met the convergence criteria, as well as greater certainty regarding the likely timing of euro adoption and improving growth potential, were noted by the agency as factors that could lead to positive rating action.

On June 4, the European Commission and the European Central Bank published their ad hoc convergence reports, which assessed positively Bulgaria's readiness to adopt the euro from January 1 2026. The final decision on euro area membership by the EU institutions is expected in early July.