site.btaMay Inflation Seen at 0.2%, Annual Rate at 7%

Bulgaria’s monthly inflation in May is expected at 0.2%, while annual inflation is projected at 7%, the National Statistical Institute (NSI) said in a flash estimate based on the consumer price index (CPI) on Monday.

In late May, NSI forecast April inflation at 2% month on month and 7.1% year on year. Final NSI data put the figures at 1.8% and 6.8%, respectively.

The March flash estimate was 0.7% month on month and 3.9% year on year. Final data released by NSI in mid-April showed March inflation at 0.9% month on month and 4.1% year on year.

NSI first released flash inflation data on February 3. Flash inflation gives an early reading of inflation before final, detailed statistics are published. It allows Bulgaria to be compared on this indicator with the other 20 eurozone countries after joining the currency union on January 1, 2026.

NSI data show flash inflation was 0.3% month on month and 3.3% year on year in February, while the January readings were 0.7% and 3.6%, respectively. The gap between the flash estimate and final data is minimal, according to national statistics data.

Final NSI data put February inflation at 0.4% month on month and 3.3% year on year. In January, the figures were 0.6% and 3.5%, respectively.

In May 2026, compared with the previous month, the steepest expected price rises are in transport, up 1.2%, restaurant and hotel services, up 0.9%, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, up 0.9%. Price declines are expected in recreation, sport and culture, down 1.9%, and personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services, down 0.3%.

Per NSI's flash estimate, the Small Basket Price Index is expected to fall 0.2% month on month and rise 4.3% year on year in May 2026. Prices of goods and services in the small basket for the lowest-income 20% of households are expected to change from the previous month as follows: services, up 0.1%; non-food goods, down 0.5%; and food products, down 0.1%.