site.btaPopulation Aged 40-64 at Risk of Rapid Decline Without Urgent Action, Social Policy Minister Warns

Labour and Social Policy Minister Borislav Gutsanov sounded the alarm that Bulgaria faces a sharp decline in its population aged 40-64 unless immediate measures are taken. Addressing Parliament at Friday's Question Time, he cited a Bulgarian Academy of Sciences forecast that a rapid decline in the 40-64 age group will begin between 2030 and 2035 and is expected to continue until 2058 if urgent steps are not implemented.

Meanwhile, the population under 39 will continue to shrink, while those over 65, currently 24% of the total, are expected to keep growing.

"Demographic policy is a priority that cannot be postponed. Addressing the demographic crisis must and can become the next major national goal," Gutsanov said.

In 2024, Bulgaria recorded 53,727 births, 99.4% of which were live births. The fertility rate was 1.72, slightly down from 1.81 in 2023, when it was the highest in the EU. In 2024, deaths exceeded births by more than 47,000, he added.

Migration in recent years has produced a positive balance, with more people returning to Bulgaria than leaving, Gutsanov said. He cautioned, however, that there is no conclusive evidence that this trend is sustainable.

"The main demographic trends are a cause for serious concern," Gutsanov said. "We are seeing a persistent negative natural population growth, deepening regional disparities, an aging population and low birth rates. I am convinced that targeted efforts, active political engagement and expert dialogue are needed for realistic, long-term solutions."

"Addressing demographic challenges in the long term requires a comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach," Gutsanov said, listing all the measures currently in place: child allowances for the first, second and third child, and second-year maternity support. In 2025, over BGN 640 million is allocated under the Family Allowances Act to support families. "Yet we see that these measures are not sufficient," he commented.

The Labour and Social Policy Ministry will work to increase financial incentives and improve support for families with children. A key priority for 2026 will be boosting birth rates by raising maternity benefits and allowances for the first, second and third child. The aim is to increase second-year maternity benefits in 2026 to roughly the level of the minimum wage, while also encouraging mothers to return to work, said Gutsanov.