site.btaWith PM Gone and President Ousted, Republika Srpska Faces Leadership Legitimacy Crisis

The Prime Minister of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska, Radovan Viskovic, resigned this week, prompting a government reshuffle. The move raised numerous questions, ranging from why a reshuffle is necessary before regular elections, to whether ousted President Milorad Dodik will be the one making key decisions about the new government, and how legitimate those decisions would be.

"As a ruling coalition and party, we always analyze the situation. The West has been waging a hybrid war against Republika Srpska for 30 years now," said Dodik, quoted by the Bosnian edition of regional TV outlet N1. "We believe we must overcome this with broader consensus."

He noted that the decision came after consultations, including with the outgoing Prime Minister Viskovic, who will now take on a new role as head of the state-owned highways company in Republika Srpska. Dodik added that Viskovic would again be nominated for a key post after the next parliamentary elections.

Since the end of the 1992–1995 interethnic war, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been divided into two semi-autonomous entities: Republika Srpska, populated mostly by Bosnian Serbs, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, mainly inhabited by Bosniak Muslims and Croats. Each entity has its own government, parliament, and police, while the two share common state-level institutions such as the judiciary, armed forces, security services, and tax administration, as defined by the Dayton Agreement that ended the war.

After Viskovic’s resignation was announced, Dodik declared that he wanted the government to gain new legitimacy. “This government did everything to maintain economic stability in Republika Srpska under nearly impossible conditions,” he added.

As no parliamentary elections are currently scheduled in Republika Srpska, the new government appointments are expected to be handled by the president. However, the rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina implies not only adherence to laws but also to final court rulings, N1 pointed out. Therefore, decisions made by the removed president should not be considered legitimate, the outlet added.

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Central Election Commission (CEC) decided to terminate Dodik’s mandate a few days after an appellate court confirmed his earlier sentence: one year in prison and a six-year ban from holding public office for failing to comply with decisions made by Christian Schmidt, the High Representative of the international community in Bosnia. Dodik filed an appeal, which was rejected.

On Tuesday, Bosnia’s Foreign Minister Elmedin Konakovic announced that Dodik’s diplomatic passport would be revoked, and he has 15 days to return it. The CEC is expected to call early presidential elections in Republika Srpska, to be held within 90 days. The elected president will serve until general elections scheduled for October next year. However, neither Bosnia’s nor Republika Srpska’s constitution clearly outlines who should serve as acting president until then, according to Radio Free Europe (RFE). A potential solution would be for one of Dodik’s two vice presidents to be appointed on a temporary basis, but this can only happen if Dodik himself nominates a deputy.

Both the court and the CEC have failed to respond to RFE's inquiries about who is responsible for enforcing the court’s ruling banning Dodik from public office.

Despite the court ruling, Dodik continues to reject both the sentence and his removal from office - even though he applied to pay a fine in lieu of prison time. When the sentence was announced by the court of first instance, he challenged the legitimacy of Bosnia’s courts and prosecutors. Still, he did appear in court, labeling it as “biased,” and testified before the prosecution. During the same period, Republika Srpska’s parliament passed laws to create its own judicial system, including provisions for prosecuting those who cooperate with state-level institutions. However, these laws have not yet been enforced.

In the meantime, Dodik toured several cities in Republika Srpska on Tuesday, acting as the entity’s president, effectively denying the CEC’s decision to remove him.

A vicious cycle is emerging: Dodik refuses to recognize the decisions of Bosnia’s institutions, and in turn, those institutions annul his actions, writes Klix. At the same time, the ousted president enjoys broad support from most of Republika Srpska’s institutions, including the police and security services.

According to Klix, Dodik does not oppose holding early presidential elections in Republika Srpska, as he does not expect serious opposition. However, the planned government reshuffle complicates matters far more than the elections, presidential or parliamentary. After Viskovic’s resignation, only the president has the right to nominate a new prime minister. As Dodik has officially been removed from that role, he no longer holds this authority.

If Dodik still nominates a new prime minister and the parliament approves them, it would be considered unconstitutional, N1 noted. In such a case, Bosnia’s Constitutional Court could initiate proceedings against Parliament’s decision, but it remains unclear how effective that would be, given Dodik’s ongoing rejection of past court and prosecution rulings. Constitutionally, Republika Srpska is left politically paralyzed, with no legitimate president and with an outgoing  government.