site.btaMarket Links Poll: Five Parties Likely to Enter Next Parliament
As the end of the election campaign is approaching, it seems ever more likely that the election results will form a five-party parliament, shows a survey conducted by Market Links, published on the polling agency's here website on Wednesday.
The survey was financed and implemented jointly between bTV and Market Links. It was conducted among 1,014 adult respondents across Bulgaria between March 21-27, 2023 in the form of direct personal interviews and an online survey. The data presented are not a projection of the election results of parties and coalitions in the early general elections on April 2.
According to the poll, there is no clear victor in the elections and the outcome of the race will be decided in the last days. The final results will be defined by the undecided voters, as one in seven voters have not yet decided whom to vote for in the elections.
The public has started to calm down in view of the fears from the start of the winter, which were a main method of influence in the last election campaign in September. Optimism, especially about households' financial standing, is gradually returning, according to Market Links' analysis. Despite of this, the overall attitude towards the main political figures continues to be defined by strongly expressed negative feelings.
While it is still uncertain who will win the elections, it seems that the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) will be the third-largest political force in the next legislature. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) could turn out to be the smallest party in the 49th National Assembly, despite the possibility that The Left! coalition and Bulgarian Rise may manage to enter parliament.
The share of undecided voters remains significant. The picture of electoral attitudes shows that the Bulgarian public remains divided between the two main visions for the country's development - the more conservative one, leaning towards a return of GERB's governance model and the liberal and progressive alternative, offered by Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB). The nearly equal projected results and antagonism between the two main political forces [GERB and CC-DB] significantly reduces the chance of forming a regular government in the next parliament.
According to the survey, 23.7% of respondents would vote for CC-DB, followed by 22.3 for GERB-UDF, 13.6% for MRF, 11.4% for Vazrazhdane, and 7.3% for BSP. The Left!, There Is Such a People and Bulgarian Rise seem to be below the 4% threshold for entering parliament with 3.2%, 2.3%, 2.1%, respectively.