site.btaMedia Review: April17

The upcoming April 19 early parliamentary elections and the anticipated results is a major topic for Bulgarian media on Friday.

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES – ANALYSIS

Capital: “At this stage, we do not have a clear political partner, because all of them, in one way or another, have entered into harmful alliances.” Several conclusions can be drawn from the words of Progressive Bulgaria leader Rumen Radev just days before the parliamentary elections.

One is that if they fail to win an outright majority, the election winners are unlikely to seek cooperation with any of the other four formations considered certain to enter the next parliament. Besides GERB, Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (CC–DB), and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) of Delyan Peevski, this stance appears to extend even to Vazrazhdane, which has not participated in government so far.

Another hypothesis, stemming from the phrase “at this stage,” is that the former president may wait until voting concludes on Sunday, which will show whether other players cross the electoral threshold and could become potential coalition partners. According to various polls, besides the BSP, which is “on the verge” [of entering parliament], MECh and the new project Siyanie are also near the threshold.

Additionally, the blow dealt to EU-hostile, Kremlin-leaning, and MAGA-style populists in Europe by collapse of Viktor Orban’s rule in Hungary may also be a reason for caution - and possibly for revising positions.

A familiar story

Unlike Hungary, where an electoral tsunami delivered a constitutional majority to Orbán’s main opponent, expectations of a similar electoral wave in Bulgaria following the former president’s entry into party politics have not materialized. Together with other factors, this makes Sunday’s vote not very different from elections over the past five years—despite forecasts of significantly higher turnout and the large lead of Progressive Bulgaria in polls.

Once again, the main unknown variable is whether there will be a majority capable of forming a government and initiating reforms in the captured institutions of the judiciary, especially the prosecution service, whose current state has made governance increasingly untenable.

In the new political landscape dominated by Radev’s formation, another key question arises: will Bulgaria’s position as a relatively loyal and predictable EU member shift—contrary to the course Hungary may take after Orban?

In short, despite well-sounding economic proposals and partially declared intentions for judicial reform, it remains unclear once again where Bulgaria will head after the elections and what risks may emerge.

The difficult math

Progressive Bulgaria is expected to be at the center of all configurations in the new parliament, with around one-third of the vote and between 90 and over 100 seats. The chances of an outright majority are not considered high, and depend on three key uncertainties: actual turnout, how late-deciding voters (around 18%) will vote, and how many parties ultimately enter parliament.

The campaign has not clarified potential governing majorities if Radev’s project falls short of 121 seats. Representatives of the main parties avoided giving clear answers about possible coalition participation, and judging by the statements of its leader, the uncertainty has only deepened.

Observers’ hypotheses lean toward avoiding a classic governing coalition and do not exclude new elections, despite the negative impact such a scenario would have on the leading party.

No deal with Borissov and Peevski

Mathematically, the most stable coalition would be between the top two parties – Progressive Bulgaria and GERB, but it is also seen as the least likely. GERB leader Boyko Borissov has signaled openness to such a possibility, saying recently: “We are opponents, not enemies. We did not enter politics to hate each other,” referring to Radev.

However, for Progressive Bulgaria, cooperation with GERB would pose a fundamental problem - not due to ideological differences, but because Radev has defined dismantling the “oligarchic model of governance” as a core objective of his project, a model his voters associate precisely with Borissov and Peevski. “Let it be clear once and for all: there can be no coalition with Peevski or Borissov,” Radev said earlier this month.

No deal with CC–DB either

At the same time, Radev has directed much of his campaign criticism at Continue the Change and the caretaker Government of Andrey Gurov. While this may resemble Borissov’s attempts to weaken CC–DB, it more likely reflects Radev’s personal antagonism toward the party’s founders.

Continue the Change in particular “has many sins toward Bulgaria to be recognized as a coalition partner,” he said in an interview. In response, current party leader Asen Vassilev has been among the few engaging in direct confrontation with the former president.

Even if common ground could be found on anti-corruption and judicial reform, relations between Radev and CC–DB appear highly problematic due to geopolitical differences. The democratic alliance firmly supports Ukraine, opposes Russia, and backs alignment with the EU core - positions reinforced by Bulgaria’s membership in the eurozone and Schengen.

By contrast, Radev and figures in his formation link their positions on closer ties with Vladimir Putin’s Russia not only to potential benefits from Russian gas and oil. In a recent debate, representatives of Progressive Bulgaria avoided clearly stating who invaded Ukraine, described Crimea’s status as an “international issue,” and suggested reconsidering sanctions against Russia.

These signs, whether tactical or not, already point to a possible shift in Bulgaria’s behavior within the EU. Brussels-based Politico has noted that Radev could join Orban’s remaining allies in the European Council, while The Telegraph commented that his victory “would be favorable to Putin.”

Minority government and key judicial vote

According to sociologists, if more than five parties enter parliament, Progressive Bulgaria could seek a smaller partner such as BSP, MECh, or Siyanie. A coalition with BSP and Vazrazhdane has even been discussed by sociologists as an option, based on similarities in economic views and geopolitical orientation.

In a five-party parliament with over 100 seats for Radev’s formation, however, the leading scenario is a minority government seeking broader parliamentary support. While typically unstable, such an arrangement could, if there is sufficient political will, enable initial steps toward judicial reform and curbing political corruption.

For appointing the parliamentary quota to the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), which would then elect a legitimate Prosecutor General, it may be possible to gather the required 160 votes, especially if GERB and MRF – New Beginning together hold fewer than 80 seats.

CC–DB has stated that government negotiations should follow resolution of this issue. According to Ivaylo Mirchev, without such a “test,” nothing meaningful will happen. Asen Vassilev also emphasized the need for concrete parliamentary votes - 121 for ordinary measures and 161 for those related to the SJC, before discussing a government.

GERB leader Boyko Borisov has likewise suggested that his party and Radev could jointly select the next SJC, arguing that Progressive Bulgaria includes people who “think like us.”

“If Progressive Bulgaria has under 100 seats, forming a minority government will be harder. The risk for Radev is to be supported by GERB. Borissov may adopt a ‘suffocating embrace’ tactic, as he did with CC–DB,” sociologist Dimitar Ganev commented.

It appears that Sunday’s elections will resolve only half of the equation of forming a new government. The other half will depend on the choices the winners make—and their willingness to take responsibility.

ELECTIONS - OPINION RESEARCH POLLS

Dnevnik leads with a story about a poll by Alpha Research, according to which at the end of the election campaign, Progressive Bulgaria has increased its lead over GERB–UDF to nearly 15 percentage points, and as of 19 April the main uncertainty no longer appears to be who will come first or second, but whether a sixth political force will enter the next parliament. This conclusion is based on the results of a nationally representative survey by Alpha Research, conducted between 13 and 15 April among 1,000 adult citizens across the country.

Sociologists report growing willingness to vote and expect higher turnout than in the series of previous snap elections. Voter turnout could reach around 60% (over 3.3 million people). In the past week alone, declared turnout has increased by 5 percentage points, Alpha Research managing director Boryana Dimitrova told bTV.

The coalition behind former president Rumen Radev, Progressive Bulgaria, commands the highest support at 34% among those certain to vote. GERB–UDF ranks second with 19.5%, with sociologists noting that higher turnout reduces the coalition’s relative weight.

Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria is third with 11.6% and has so far failed to reach the high support levels seen immediately after the December 2025 protests. “With good mobilization in the final days, they could retain third place,” Dimitrova said. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) follows with 9.4%, although sociologists note that its results have shown strong fluctuations across different localities in past elections, so significant variation cannot be ruled out.

Vazrazhdane is the fifth party certain to enter parliament with 5.8%. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is on the threshold of crossing the 4% entry barrier. The civic movement Siyanie [Radiance], founded by Nikolay Popov, the father of Siyana Popova who died in a road accident, is also showing an upward trend during the campaign, currently polling at 3.2%. “Siyanie is an interesting case. It became recognizable during the campaign. People who are not highly politicized are choosing to support it. It is currently below the threshold, but shifts at the end cannot be ruled out,” Dimitrova told bTV.

A large share of those certain to vote (72%) had chosen their preferred candidate even before the campaign began, Alpha Research reports. Another 16% decided during the campaign, nearly 40% of whom chose Radev, with the rest distributed among other parties.

A further 12% will decide whom to support in the three days following the end of the survey. Among them, Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria, BSP, Siyanie, and again Progressive Bulgaria have potential reserves of support.

Sociologists identify Progressive Bulgaria as the main beneficiary of high voter mobilization and vote redistribution. They note that peripheral voters from parties with solid core electorates, whose relative weight has declined during the campaign, are shifting toward the coalition behind Radev.

At the same time, there is a public expectation for a single political force to secure a full majority and take full responsibility for forming a government, expressed by 49% of respondents. Another 33% favor a coalition government so that parties can exercise mutual oversight.

“A full majority does not appear likely at this stage. However, there is a public expectation for one,” Dimitrova said, noting that such attitudes may not determine whether a majority is achieved but could influence voter decisions in the final days.

The survey was conducted by Alpha Research between 13 and 15 April 2026, funded by the agency itself and published on its website. It covered 1,000 adult citizens nationwide, using a stratified two-stage sample with quotas based on key socio-demographic characteristics. Data were collected through standardized face-to-face interviews conducted in respondents’ homes using tablets.

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24 Chasa: Tensions between Progressive Bulgaria and Continue the Change have escalated sharply in the final stage before the elections, while Democratic Bulgaria has largely maintained a neutral stance, according to political analyst Dimitar Ganev from Trend.

The latest polling data point to a slight increase in voter mobilization despite a relatively subdued campaign, with turnout expected to reach around 3.2 million voters. The overall electoral picture remains unchanged, with five parties certain to enter parliament and three - BSP, Siyanie, and MECh—hovering around the 4% threshold.

Whether these smaller formations secure representation will depend heavily on turnout and their ability to mobilize supporters. BSP retains a stable core electorate but could be disadvantaged by higher turnout, while Siyanie shows greater growth potential but lacks a similarly loyal voter base. Analysts note a paradox: a stronger result for Progressive Bulgaria could leave its potential coalition partners outside parliament, complicating efforts to form a government.

Government formation scenarios remain highly uncertain. If smaller parties enter parliament, Rumen Radev could seek their backing for a cabinet. However, if only the five largest parties win seats, the options narrow significantly. Radev has already ruled out cooperation with GERB and MRF, relations with Vazrazhdane appear strained, and tensions with CC–DB have intensified in recent weeks.

The conflist is primarily between Progressive Bulgaria and CC, with criticism on both sides, while figures from Democratic Bulgaria have avoided direct confrontation.

In such a fragmented parliament, the most likely scenario would be a minority government relying on situational support from different parties - an arrangement analysts warn would be difficult to sustain politically.

At the same time, a significant share of the electorate remains undecided. Around 15-16% of voters - more than half a million people - are expected to make their choice in the final days, leaving room for potential shifts in the final outcome.

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Trud: BSP–United Left is on the verge of entering the next National Assembly with 4% support, while Siyanie and MECh are also close to the threshold, polling at 3.6% and 3.5%, respectively. Velichie stands at 2.2%, Alliance for Rights and Freedoms at 1.9%, and There Is Such a People at 1.4%.

The data come from a survey by the Myara polling agency, conducted for the Bulgarian National Radio between 4 and 13 April 2026 among 1,002 adult citizens through face-to-face interviews using tablets. The maximum margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points.

Sociologists stress that the results represent only a snapshot of current electoral attitudes, with hundreds of thousands of voters yet to decide whom to support. Declared turnout stands at 50.7%, higher than before the previous elections, and could exceed 3 million voters.

About 1.7% of those intending to vote say they will choose the “None of the above” option.

The survey also indicates that 5.6% of respondents admit they would consider voting in exchange for payment or another incentive, with the share highest among marginalized communities. However, sociologists note that the real figure is likely higher due to underreporting. At the same time, the relatively low declared level may reflect increased efforts to counter vote-buying, contributing to expectations of a fairer electoral process.

Overall, 41.2% believe the elections will be as fair as previous ones. Among those expecting change, more anticipate an improvement (23.5%) than a deterioration (15.6%), while the rest remain undecided.

Among likely voters, around two-thirds prefer machine voting, compared to 19.1% who favor paper ballots and 13.2% who have not yet decided. The findings broadly confirm Myara’s previous observations, despite the declarative nature of responses.

CAMPAIGN FINANCING

Progressive Bulgaria is the clear leader in campaign donations, having raised EUR 800,000 as of Thursday, followed by MRF – New Beginning, Iva Lazarova from the Institute for Public Environment Development told the Bulgarian National Radio.

She explained that the institute monitors 38 major regional and national media outlets, including television stations, radio broadcasters, and online platforms.

As of the latest data, political participants in the campaign have spent a total of EUR 914,000 on media. Lazarova noted that this is not a particularly high level of spending compared to previous campaigns, pointing to October 2024, when parties spent nearly EUR 800,000.

According to her, the emergence of a new political player consistently projected by pollsters to win the elections may have discouraged other parties from investing more heavily in media campaigns.

Bulgarian National TV has attracted the largest share of campaign spending, receiving around EUR 187,000. It is followed closely by TV Evrokom with nearly EUR 160,000, while Nova TV ranks third with EUR 145,000.

Lazarova added that the total value of state-provided media packages allocated to political formations amounts to nearly EUR 315,000. She noted that the Central Election Commission has not yet published detailed data on how these funds were spent, but this will be tracked through the parties’ final financial reports.

CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION – ELECTION PREPARATIONS

All preparations for the upcoming elections are completed, Central Election Commission (CEC) Chair Kameliya Neykova told Bulgarian National TV, adding that only the final deliveries of accessibility materials remain ahead of Saturday.

Addressing concerns about machine voting security, she stated that voting machines cannot be manipulated. According to her, the Election Code defines strict procedures for certifying machines and software, carried out by the Ministry of e-Government, the Institute of Metrology, and the Institute for Standardization. She added that all systems are encrypted, ports are sealed, and machines are checked by state experts together with technicians from “Ciela Norma” before sealing. Once sealed, external physical interference is not possible

She explained that tactile voting templates for visually impaired voters are being distributed to selected regions. These templates align with the boxes on paper ballots, allowing voters with visual impairments to vote independently after assistance from polling station staff to properly position the template. Braille instructions are also available for reading the ballot.

In addition, Neykova noted that the Ministry of e-Government has developed QR codes for each electoral district. These will be displayed at polling stations, enabling voters with smartphones to access information about candidates and, if they choose, select preferences using accessibility features.

Each polling station will also receive a device for video monitoring, along with instructions. A QR code must be scanned to activate the system, and the device must be positioned correctly; otherwise, the system will flag an error and the setup must be repeated.

Neykova also said that the mobile application used for results processing functions as an electronic tally sheet and is publicly available on the CEC and regional commission websites, allowing anyone to review how data is entered.

JUSTICE 

Mediapool runs a podcast interview with caretaker Interior Minister Emil Dechev.

“Almost the moment I open my mouth, information starts leaking. This is a serious problem not only for this institution, but for many others as well,” Dechev said, describing the situation with information leaks in the Interior Ministry. He said he does not rule out even being wiretapped.

“I expect anything. When I took office, I was aware that all sorts of things could happen to me – likely pressure, attempts at intimidation, including the opening of pre-trial proceedings, even being charged as a defendant. That does not worry me,” Dechev added.

He also said that so far he has not been summoned for questioning over the report filed against him by MRF – New Beginning leader Delyan Peevski to the prosecution service. The report alleges that Dechev pressured officers from the General Directorate for Combating Organized Crime (GDCOC) to summon Peevski for questioning.

The police started working in response to an alert by Bulgarian European Prosecutor Teodora Georgieva, which alleges pressure exerted on her by a politician sanctioned for corruption [apparently referring to Peevski, who has been sanctioned by the US under the Magnitsky Act], as well as links between acting Prosecutor General Borislav Sarafov and the now-disappeared [alleged power broker figure in the judiciary] Petyo Petrov, known as “The Euro.” The Interior Ministry also presented data indicating that Sofia City Prosecutor Emilia Rusinova had traveled abroad together with Petrov.

After Peevski’s report, the prosecution service headed by Rusinova seized from GDCOC the case file related to Georgieva’s report. No explanation was provided. There has been no official confirmation so far that this was done because of Peevski’s complaint.

Dechev also warned that provocations during the elections cannot be ruled out. According to him, a scenario similar to the “Kostinbrod affair” of 2013 is possible.

“In my view, this is entirely realistic given our recent history. Since it has happened before, why should we exclude it now,” the Interior Minister said.

The Kostinbrod affair took place on the day of reflection ahead of the 2013 elections. With the active involvement of then TV7 director Nikolay Barekov, it was announced that a large number of ballot papers had been found stored at a printing house in Kostinbrod where ballots were produced. The implication was that these would be used to rig the vote. It was later clarified that these were printing rejects (waste produced during machine calibration).

The prosecution launched an investigation in which the only defendant was former prime minister Rosen Zhelyazkov. He was acquitted on first instance, and as no appeal followed, the ruling entered into force.

PROGRESSIVE BULGARIA MP CANDIDATE – INTERVIEW

bTV runs an interview with Progressive Bulgaria MP candidate Ivan Demerdzhiev, in which he says that comparisons between Rumen Radev and Viktor Orban are speculative and unfounded.

He argued that Radev has built a consistent public image over his nine years as president and is unlikely to change course. “I have not seen him as anyone’s Trojan horse, but as someone who strictly defends the national interest within the EU and NATO,” Demerdzhiev said.

Commenting on criticism over an agreement signed by the caretaker government with Ukraine, Demerdzhiev said such long-term commitments should be made by a regular parliament rather than a caretaker cabinet, especially amid domestic challenges such as rising fuel and electricity prices and broader geopolitical tensions. He added that, in its current form, he would not have signed the agreement.

Demerdzhiev expressed confidence that Progressive Bulgaria is gaining stronger support than indicated by polling data, citing direct contact with voters during the campaign. He pointed to large campaign events and nationwide outreach led by Radev as evidence of growing backing, adding that the party expects to secure the majority it is aiming for.

He reiterated that potential coalition partners are limited, stressing that parties associated with the recent governing arrangements and early elections are excluded. He specifically ruled out cooperation with figures such as Delyan Peevski and Boyko Borissov, accusing them of representing an “oligarchic model” incompatible with the party’s goals.

Demerdzhiev also raised concerns about significant budget expenditures made by the outgoing government earlier this year, warning that the resulting deficit would pose a major challenge for the next administration.

On economic policy, he defended his party’s program as detailed but flexible, emphasizing plans to curb the outflow of public funds and attract both foreign and domestic investment.