site.btaMarket Links Poll: Five Political Forces Enter Next Parliament, Four Stand Chance

An opinion poll, conducted by Market Links  and co-financed by bTV, indicates that five political formations would enter the new Bulgarian parliament, while four others remain near the 4% threshold, show the survey’s results, which were circulated to the media on Thursday.

The national quantitative study was conducted between April 7 and 14, 2026, among 1,003 respondents over the age of 18 through face-to-face interviews and online surveys.

According to the projected results, Progressive Bulgaria leads with 38%, followed by GERB–UDF with 19.8%, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) with 13.1%, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) with 7.5%, and Vazrazhdane with 5.6%.

Close to the 4% threshold are Velichie with 3.4%, Siyanie (Radiance) with 3.1%, Morality, Unity and Honour (MECh) with 3.1%, and BSP - United Left with 3%.

Based on this configuration, Progressive Bulgaria would secure 109 seats in Parliament, GERB–UDF - 57, CC-DB - 37, MRF - 21, and Vazrazhdane - 16.

With 38% support and 109 seats, Progressive Bulgaria would emerge as the leading political force, surpassing the early results of both There Is Such a People and Continue the Change from their 2021 emergence, and coming closest in nature to GERB’s 2009 performance, according to the analysis.

The poll suggests GERB – UDF would maintain a similar number of voters but lose share, CC-DB would partially recover from 2024 losses, while Vazrazhdane would be among the most affected by the rise of the new political formation.

Rumen Radev is presented as the only politician with a positive net approval rating, and more than half of undecided voters are expected to support Progressive Bulgaria.

The study also notes that voters are less focused on forming a stable government and more oriented toward changing the model of governance. Supporters of Progressive Bulgaria are largely skeptical about coalition participation, while those voting for GERB-UDF and CC-DB are more open to it.

Expected voter turnout is estimated at 54% (around 3.3–3.5 million people), which would be a five-year record, driven by protest mobilization and Rumen Radev’s personal appeal.