site.btaRomania’s Ruling Coalition Shaken amid Tensions, Fate to Be Decided after Easter

Against the backdrop of a tense international environment and domestic economic difficulties, Romania's ruling coalition is seriously destabilized, and its future is expected to be decided after Easter, judging by recent public statements from its leaders.

The largest party in the coalition – the Social Democratic Party (PSD) – has long been waving the threat of withdrawing from government. At the end of February, it announced it would hold an internal party referendum in which members will decide whether they still support National Liberal Party (PNL) leader Ilie Bolojan as prime minister and the centrist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) as a coalition partner.

The results of the parliamentary elections in late 2024, along with the tense domestic political situation triggered by the annulment of the first round of the presidential election - won by nationalist and populist Calin Georgescu - led to the need for unity among pro-European parties. This came in response to the rising influence of nationalist and sovereigntist forces such as AUR, the Party of Young People (POT), and S.O.S. Romania, led by controversial MEP Diana Sosoaca.

Despite longstanding disagreements and ideological differences - and with the backing of President Nicusor Dan (elected in the rerun of the presidential election last May) - a "pro-European" government was formed, bringing together PSD, PNL, AUR, and the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR RMDSZ). The government also relies on support from national minorities. The coalition agreement envisages a rotation of the prime minister post in April 2027, when a Social Democrat is expected to take over.

On Thursday, PSD leader and Speaker of the lower house Sorin Grindeanu visited Brussels, where he discussed the situation in Romania's ruling coalition and the possibility of PSD's withdrawal with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and members of the Party of European Socialists (PES), Romanian media reported.

Asked whether the internal referendum might be postponed to avoid overlapping crises - both political and related to fuel issues - Grindeanu insisted that the vote will go ahead as planned on April 20, according to Agerpres.

Around 5,000 PSD members are expected to participate in the internal vote. Grindeanu said he has begun meetings across the country with mayors, local representatives, and supporters to present the situation and jointly decide the party’s future course.

Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan said in a video interview on Thursday evening that "the last thing Romania needs is a political crisis". Given the country's economic and budgetary challenges, as well as the broader international context, he stressed that stability is essential.

Romania has long struggled with an excessive budget deficit, which reached 9.3% of GDP at the end of 2024, the highest in the EU. The country has committed to a seven-year plan with the European Commission to reduce the deficit below 3% by 2031.

The government led by Bolojan, which took office in June last year, has already implemented two austerity packages aimed at stabilizing public finances. Romania ended 2025 with a deficit of 7.65% of GDP, with a target of 6.2% set for this year.

Administrative reforms and the restructuring of state-owned enterprises have also been introduced to cut spending, but these measures have sparked protests among various professional groups. At the same time, tax increases have fueled public dissatisfaction, which AUR has capitalized on, becoming the leading political force in opinion polls.

Against this backdrop, Grindeanu's Social Democrats are increasingly signaling that they are preparing to exit the government. During his Brussels visit, he stated that PSD wants the pro-European governance of Romania to continue, "but in a functional form - with a prime minister who inspires trust and hope, not austerity measures."

Earlier in the week, Bolojan noted that it remains to be seen whether the coalition will survive beyond Easter, warning that mutual respect among coalition partners is essential for maintaining public trust and effective governance.

He also said he is not concerned about a potential no-confidence vote and has no intention of resigning.

Meanwhile, the leadership of the reformist Save Romania Union (USR) met earlier this week to assess the situation and the threat of PSD leaving the coalition. According to leaked transcripts cited by Digi24, USR leader Dominic Fritz urged party members to prepare for a no-confidence scenario backed by PSD.

"If your spouse files for divorce, do you still want the relationship? How long will we humiliate ourselves?" Fritz reportedly said.

He warned that if PSD were to bring down the government, it would not be just to remove Bolojan, but also to push USR out of power - potentially through a vote supported by both PSD and AUR.

So far, the three opposition parties from the so-called sovereigntist bloc - AUR, S.O.S. Romania, and POT - have submitted five no-confidence motions, none of which have succeeded. While such motions are frequently introduced, they are often symbolic and do not automatically lead to resignations.

Romania’s parliament has 465 MPs, and at least 233 votes are required to topple the government. The sovereigntist bloc controls around 160 seats, but the balance could shift significantly if PSD, with its 122 MPs, decides to support such a move.

PSD has firmly stated it will decide on April 20 whether to remain in the coalition, with signals so far pointing toward a possible withdrawal, according to local media.

UDMR RMDSZ leader Kelemen Hunor commented that the current governing formula has no viable alternative, warning that a minority government supported by AUR would be a "catastrophe".

President Nicusor Dan also weighed in, describing the tensions as "inevitable and legitimate" in a multi-party system and emphasizing the need for rational dialogue.

Whether the coalition will ultimately collapse remains unclear, but regular coalition meetings - typically held on Mondays - have reportedly been cancelled, according to Adevarul.

Political analyst Radu Delicote warned that a collapse would trigger a domino effect beyond politics, impacting Romania's credit rating, currency stability, and broader economic indicators.

Economic analyst Cristian Paun added that international creditors are closely monitoring developments, and perceptions of political instability are already translating into higher borrowing costs.

"At the moment, Romania does not look good at all," Paun told Adevarul.

Prime Minister Bolojan also stressed the importance of maintaining the coalition, noting that Romania faces a difficult international context and a large deficit, with interest payments alone projected at EUR 60 billion this year.

In his words, stability is not just desirable - it is essential for navigating the challenges ahead.