site.btaMoldova to Hold High-Stakes Parliamentary Elections, Pro-European and Pro-Russian Forces Compete

Moldova will hold high-stakes parliamentary elections on September 28, the outcome of which will directly affect the country’s EU membership bid. Pro-European and pro-Russian forces are locked in a tight race.

Main contenders

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has alternated between pro-Western and pro-Russian policies. The pro-European camp has been in power since President Maia Sandu took office in 2020, when her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a parliamentary majority in 2021.

PAS advocates closer integration with the West, including EU membership by 2030. It firmly opposed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and accuses Moscow of attempting to influence Moldovan politics through hybrid attacks, disinformation, illegal party financing, and vote-buying.

The opposition Patriotic Bloc, a pro-Russian left-wing electoral alliance, is made up of four parties: the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) the Future of Moldova Party (PVM), and the Heart of Moldova Republican Party (PRIM). The bloc advocates restoring economic ties with the Commonwealth of Independent States and is open to cooperation with BRICS, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and China.

Polling data

A total of 23 political entities are registered for the upcoming parliamentary elections: 15 parties, four coalitions, and four independent candidates.

Recent polls suggest PAS could lose its outright majority in the 101-seat legislature and may need to form a coalition with smaller parties crossing the electoral threshold (5% for parties, 7% for coalitions). The Patriotic Bloc ranks second in several surveys.

Other parties with a chance of entering parliament include the opposition Alternative Bloc, which formally supports European integration, Our Party, which advocates “national reconciliation,” neutrality, and constitutional protection of the Russian language, and the new pro-European League of Town and Municipalities.

Russia's interference

Speaking in the European Parliament on September 9, President Sandu described the elections as the most important in Moldova’s history, accusing Moscow of escalating hybrid warfare by spreading disinformation, illegally funding parties, and buying votes.

In recent weeks, police conducted dozens of raids into illegal financing. On September 22, a total of 74 people were detained in connection with what authorities said was a “Russian-coordinated plot to organize mass protests and destabilize the country”. Some suspects reportedly underwent weapons training in Serbia.

Russia denies meddling in Moldova’s affairs, accusing Sandu’s government of stirring anti-Russian hysteria to win elections. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recently said Sandu’s “regime exerts psychological pressure on the population” and that “the West controls Moldova with an iron hand.” Moscow also criticized Chisinau for opening only two polling stations in Russia.

Pro-Russian opposition groups denounced police actions as intimidation. Former president Igor Dodon (2016–2020), now a leading figure in the Patriotic Bloc, accused Sandu of seeking to drag the country into war with Russia. Russia’s foreign intelligence service claimed the EU plans to occupy Moldova and deploy NATO forces in Ukraine’s Odesa region.

Moldova’s Central Election Commission barred several parties from running, citing links to Moscow and fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, who currently lives in Russia. Shor was convicted in absentia in 2023 to 15 years in prison over the 2014 “theft of the century,” when USD 1 billion disappeared from Moldovan banks. His Shor Party was declared unconstitutional in 2023, and its MPs now sit in Parliament as independents.

At a congress in Moscow this July, Shor presented his new political bloc Victory, saying Moldova’s “only salvation” was unification with Russia. The bloc was banned from participating in the elections.

Russia maintains around 1,500 troops in Transnistria, a breakaway Moldovan region controlled by pro-Russian separatists since the Transnistrian War (1990-1992). According to the latest Transnistrian census, ethnic Bulgarians make up 2.4% of the region’s population. A total of 12 polling stations will open in Transnistria on election day.

Language issue

The Constitution of the Republic of Moldova had long defined the official state language as “Moldovan, based on the Latin script.” Following the adoption of new legislation in March 2023, all references to “Moldovan language” in the country’s education materials and state documents, including the Constitution, were officially replaced with “Romanian language.” 

PAS argued that the change aligns with linguistic and historical reality, as Moldovan and Romanian are essentially the same language. The opposition, mainly the PCRM and Socialists PSRM, strongly opposed the move, claiming it violates the Constitution, which refers to the official language as Moldovan. They argue that the decision disregards national identity and could marginalize citizens who identify with the Moldovan language. The change has sparked political and public debate, with protests and media campaigns from both sides.

The dispute remains a source of public tension. According to the 2024 census, 49.2% of respondents identified their language as Moldovan, 31.3% as Romanian, 11.1% as Russian, 3.8% as Gagauz, 2.9% as Ukrainian, 1.2% as Bulgarian, 0.3% as Romani, and 0.2% as other languages.

The same census shows 83.4% of Moldovans hold only Moldovan citizenship, 15.6% dual citizenship, and 0.9% foreign citizenship. Ethnically, 77.2% identify as Moldovans, 7.9% as Romanians, 4.9% Ukrainians, 4.2% Gagauz, 3.2% Russians, 1.6% Bulgarians, with the remainder Roma and others.

Economy

The war in Ukraine sharply reduced imports of Russian gas, fueling inflation and forcing the government to diversify energy sources. Gas prices remain a major election issue.

Moldova’s economy is heavily reliant on services and agriculture. Key exports include farm products, textiles, and machinery, with Romania, Ukraine, and Italy as main trading partners.

The Economy Ministry forecasts GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects only 0.6%. Regional instability, weaker demand from trade partners, the trade deficit, energy price vulnerability, and possible changes in gas transit contracts weigh on economic prospects.

According to the National Bank of Moldova, annual inflation in July stood at 7.93%. The IMF expects inflation to reach 8% in 2025, while the Economy Ministry projects 6.1%.