site.btaDirect and Indirect Effect from Bulgaria's Reduced Exports due to New US Tariffs Estimated at EUR 626.9 Mln

The potential total estimated effect, both direct and indirect, of the new US tariffs from the reduced exports from Bulgaria is estimated at EUR 626.9 million, which represents 1.46% of the country’s total goods exports, Economy and Industry Minister Petar Dilov said during Parliament's Question Time on Friday.

Dilov responded to a question from Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria MP Ivaylo Shotev about the impact on Bulgaria of the commitments made by the European Union under the new trade deal with the US.

Dilov said that, in this regard, the Ministry is conducting a survey among the affected enterprises about the prospects of the markets, their positioning under the new conditions, and the positioning of the competitors of Bulgarian goods on the American market. The goal is to take specific steps to support Bulgarian business, he added.

Bulgaria's exports to the US represent 3.3% of the country's total exports, which suggests that potential direct losses would be relatively low, Dilov said, but added that the country will suffer not only direct losses in exports but also indirect ones. According to him, a significant part of Bulgarian exports to the EU and the rest of the world is related to intermediate rather than final goods, used by trading partners in their exports to the US.

In August, the EU and the US jointly published a written statement about a framework agreement reached in July on trade issues. Key points in the document include a 15% tariff on imports into the US of most EU goods, with specific rates for cars, related to legislative actions by the EU.

In an interview in August, Deputy Minister of Economy and Industry Doncho Barbalov said that the expected drop in Bulgarian exports to the US due to the new tariffs would be around 32.8% or 1.5% of the total exports. The expected negative effect on Bulgaria’s GDP from the imposed tariffs would be about 0.35%. The Ministry’s calculations show that the negative effects on Bulgarian exports are 12.5% of the weighted mean applied tariff, Barbalov said.