site.btaMedia Review: April 6

POLITICS

With early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria two weeks away, the possibility of a coalition between two of the highest-ranked political entities in public opinion polls, Progressive Bulgaria and Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), is discussed in a comment by political analyst Daniel Smilov, originally written for Deutsche Welle and also published on Dnevnik.bg. According to Smilov, this is the most likely coalition, considering the two entities' stated intention not to join forces with GERB-UDF and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms after the April 19 elections.

Theoretically, the analyst says, it is also possible for Progressive Bulgaria, led by former President Rumen Radev, to try and form a minority government with the support of Vazrazhdane and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (if the Socialists make it into parliament). Another theoretical possibility is that one of the parties wins an absolute majority. But judging at least from the campaign so far and from opinion polls, such scenarios are little likely.

Although the media have covered so many events involving Progressive Bulgaria, journalists have not yet asked them which European party family they seek to join. The choice will be very important and will be indicative of the political line that Progressive Bulgaria is going to follow, the analyst says. He argues that if both Progressive Bulgaria and CC-DB are committed to the cause of building a stronger and more integrated Europe, it will be understandable if they have tactical differences about how this objective can be attained in a difficult international situation, but if the two entities share a common European horizon of values, they can seek reasonable compromises and solutions, Smilov says.

MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

"We are in a crucial 48-hour period," Arab affairs expert Vladimir Chukov said on Monday, speaking on the morning talk show of BNT1, the main channel of Bulgarian National Television. Chukov said intermediaries have suggested that negotiations be held, but the Iranians are expected to accomplish two things before entering the negotiations. "During a period of 45 days they should, first, open the Strait of Hormuz. This is the first condition, not subject to discussion. And second, they are supposed to hand over their enriched uranium," he explained. For its part, Iran demands very strong guarantees that it will not be attacked anymore. "Someone ought to take a step back. At present, no one seems likely to do that. I hope very much that I am wrong," Chukov commented. According to him, the shootdown of two US military jets was made possible by the collaboration of two private Chinese companies with the Chinese Defence Ministry, through which Iran received logistical support, intelligence and satellite information, with artificial intelligence playing a role.

ECONOMY

The Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent the prices of important minerals soaring, but over the last year the steepest surge has been recorded for the price of tungsten, Trud.bg says. The author of the article, Boyan Rashev, notes that "the metal of spacecraft and airplanes" has experienced an annual spike of 557%, with its price rising literally every day over the last month.

Bulgaria has tungsten reserves but does not want to exploit them, Rashev says. Back in the communist era it was known that the country had one of Europe's biggest deposits of that metal, at Grancharitsa, but it was not explored comprehensively until the beginning of the 21st century. In 2009, Resurs 1, then owned by non-ferrous metals company KCM, received a 35-year concession agreement to extract tungsten. The project envisioned an investment of BGN 140 million, which could create highly-paid jobs for a very long time in one of the nation's poorest areas. KCM possessed the technical capacity to refine the concentrate and produce "the metal of war".

The local authorities in the area did everything they could to prevent the implementation of the project, and eventually the central government decided that the country did not need it. In September 2017 the Pazardzhik Regional Inspectorate of Environment and Water expressed a negative opinion of the impact assessment report, making rather strange conclusions. Bulgaria thus lost another opportunity to become an important EU member in an industry of strategic significance, Rashev says.

He notes that the United States is currently looking to support tungsten extraction projects, so that it can gain access to the resource. The Bulgarian government is doing nothing about it, the expert says.

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Bulgaria can reach the standard of living in Spain in 12 years if it manages to avoid four nightmares, says Georgi Angelov, senior economist at the Open Society Institute – Sofia, in an article ranked as "the No. 2 comment of the week" on 24chasa.bg. Angelov cites Eurostat data which show that the poorest EU member states are Latvia, Greece and Bulgaria, with GDP per capita (based on purchasing power parity) standing at 71% of the EU average in Latvia and 68% in Greece and Bulgaria. Ten years ago, Bulgaria was 20 percentage points behind Greece, but now it is at the same level as its southern neighbour. "We shouldn't be too proud of it – after all, it is not very difficult to catch up with a car that stands still," the analyst notes.

But when can Bulgaria catch up with the leading countries of Eastern Europe and get closer to the rich Western economies? – he asks. He says that in 2014 Poland was at the same level as Bulgaria is now: 68% of the EU's average GDP per capita, meaning that Bulgaria is 11 years behind Poland. If Bulgaria catches up at the pace of Lithuania, it can manage in six or seven years, and reach the group of the moderately wealthy countries in 14-15 years. Over the last 10 years Bulgaria has been developing a little faster than Poland and Lithuania, and if the pace is maintained, Bulgaria can reach 75% of the EU average in four years, 80% in seven years, and 90% in 12 years. In other words, in 12 years' time Bulgaria can join the group of the EU's moderately wealthy, probably alongside such countries as Poland, Spain, Czechia, Lithuania and Slovenia, Angelov argues.

Along the way, Bulgaria should beware mainly of running into a self-inflicted crisis, he warns. There are such examples in the region, the analyst says. Greece sank due to a debt crisis, and economic growth in Romania slowed drastically as a result of huge deficits. Excessive lending and a banking crisis knocked down Spain and Cyprus a decade and a half ago, while Slovakia, Hungary and Czechia were hit not only by the war in Ukraine and domestic problems, but also by their excessive dependence on the auto industry, which was affected by US tariffs and competition from China, Angelov says.
 

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The northern section of the Bulgarian Black Sea coast usually welcomes many tourists around Easter, but now business owners expect considerably lower visitor interest and a drop in bookings, 24chasa.bg says. In the Golden Sands resort, expectations are that tourists will be around 20% fewer than in earlier years. Hoteliers attribute the fall to the early timing of Easter, which Orthodox Christians will celebrate on April 12, a cooler weather and economic uncertainties due to the tensions in the Middle East. They also note that Bulgaria is insufficiently advertised as a travel destination for the Easter holidays, the website says, quoting Nova TV.

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A public procurement procedure, at the end of which BDZ Passenger Services will award a contract for the maintenance of Siemens Desiro multiple unit passenger trains supplied to Bulgaria years ago, has sunk deep into legal mire, SegaBG.com says. The procedure was stalled in late January on a claim by Siemens Mobility, which said that the application deadlines and conditions were inadequate. The Supreme Administrative Court is expected to rule on the request to suspend the procedure, and the Commission on Protection of Competition is yet to express a substantive opinion.

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Bulgarian technology company Green Innovation, operating under the brand name Hydrogenera, has concluded a major international contract to supply a 2 MW hydrogen system. The project has been funded with a German government grant, SegaBG.com reports. The system will be commissioned in Ukraine and will target industrial customers in Germany. The aim is to build a sustainable transborder supply chain for hydrogen of exceptionally high purity (99.999%).

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Traffic congestion around schools, caused by parents driving their children to class during rush hour, can be tackled by introducing a new traffic system known as school streets, Dnevnik.bg says. The system has been implemented successfully in many European cities, according to the website. It notes that a bicycle infrastructure expert was recently appointed at the Transport Department of Sofia Municipality. His job is to coordinate all units and activities to connect bicycle lanes into a single network. The expert, Dilyan Gavrailov, is a transport engineer who has spent 10 years designing cycling paths and school streets in London.

Gavrailov tells the website in an interview that he will apply his work experience from the British capital to Sofia. He says London's bicycle lanes are narrower than those in Sofia. "We are privileged to have wider boulevards in Sofia, but we need good planning and alternative transport solutions," he says. Explaining how a system of school streets works, Gavrailov says that streets in front of schools are closed to cars, including parents' cars, for a couple of hours or the whole day. He adds that, at the beginning, everyone in the school is happy with the new arrangements except for the parents affected by them, but with time, the change is becoming increasingly popular. Admitting that it is not so simple to close a street in front of a school, the expert says that, nonetheless, the approach will be applied in Sofia, starting from the city centre, where multiple modes of transport are available such as underground railway, tram and trolleybus. 

CULTURE

Bulgaria has huge potential in the field of cultural heritage, particularly in the framework of UNESCO, but it is not being utilized, says Irena Todorova, Executive Director of the UNESCO Regional Centre Sofia, interviewed by Trud.bg. Todorova is adamant that Bulgaria has everything it needs to be a leader in the Balkans, especially as regards the protection of cultural heritage. The country has the necessary institutional infrastructure and capital and participates in a number of international organizations and forums, but lacks political and administrative capacity to systematize the process, she says. According to Todorova, culture is at the bottom of the political programmes of the parties running in the April 19 early parliamentary elections.