site.btaSurvey Shows High Mobilization for Early Vote, Radev-led Project Tops Support

Voter mobilization ahead of the upcoming snap elections is high, with 56% declaring firm readiness to cast a ballot, a level that could result in turnout comparable to that of spring 2021, according to data from the Market Links polling agency.

The findings come from a nationally representative survey, jointly financed and conducted by bTV and Market Links. The sample includes 1,019 respondents aged 18 and over across the country. The survey was carried out between February 7 and 13, 2026, using a combination of face-to-face interviews and online questionnaires.

According to the data, between four and six political formations are likely to enter the next parliament.

If elections were held this Sunday, 25.6% of voters would support a formation led by Rumen Radev. GERB-UDF would get 15.4%, Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria 12.5%, Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning 10.5%, and Vazrazhdane 4.5%. Support for MECh stands at 2.5%, the Bulgarian Socialist Party – United Left at 2.3%, Velichie at 1.7%, There Is Such a People at 1.5%, and Alliance for Rights and Freedoms at 0.4%. Another 3.1% would vote for other formations, while 1.7% would choose the "I don’t support anyone" option on the ballot.

Market Links adds that Radev’s long-discussed entry into the competition for executive power has been openly declared but has yet to materialize in a concrete coalition structure, despite preliminary announcements. As no official party name or candidate lists in the multi-member constituencies have been presented, analysts caution that the survey effectively measures projections of a political phenomenon that does not yet formally exist. Nevertheless, experience over the past decade suggests that such polling data can serve as a reliable indicator of current public sentiment. The emergence of a new formation led by Radev would significantly reshape the political landscape and could potentially make it the leading political force in the early elections, Market Links adds.

Trust in institutions remains critically low, with both the government and the National Assembly approaching their most unfavourable ratings in recent years, the analysts say.

The public's perception of a looming crisis is deepening, with negative assessments of the country’s development reaching levels typical of periods of political instability in 2024, according to the survey’s conclusions.

Support for membership in the European Union and NATO remains predominant. However, the data show a noticeable increase in attitudes favouring withdrawal, particularly with regard to the European Union.