site.btaExperts Comment on Political Situation after Rumen Radev's Stepping Down as President

Political scientists Atanas Radev and Boris Popivanov and sociologists Boryana Dimitrova and Evelina Slavkova commented in an interview for BTA on whether former president Rumen Radev chose the right moment to resign as president and on how the political landscape in the country is changing.

The resignation

Atanas Radev said that the timing was right in view of the upcoming early parliamentary elections. He added that the former president is benefiting from the aura that the institution provided.

Slavkova said that Rumen Radev chose the last possible moment to resign and embark on active politics. She added that in politics it is difficult to talk about a "right" or "wrong" moment in an absolute sense. It would be more appropriate to talk about different degrees of political cost and benefit. According to Slavkova, if Radev had decided to create a political project after the end of his term, the political effect of such a move would have been significantly weaker. Resigning during his term allowed him to capitalize on his institutional legitimacy, accumulated public visibility, and image as an active political factor, rather than a politician returning after a hiatus. In this sense, the decision can be interpreted as an attempt to make the most of his political resources.

Popivanov also described the moment as opportune. He highlighted the consistency in Radev's behaviour. Popivanov recalled that Radev had announced his bid for a second term exactly one year before the end of his first term, and now he is announcing his bid for the prime minister's post one year before the end of his second term. According to Popivanov, the current political moment is favourable for the launch of a new party project due to the exhaustion of the political cycle that began with the protests in the summer of 2020. According to the political scientist, the hopes associated with both the pro-European liberal line of Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) and the Eurosceptic nationalist line of Vazrazhdane have been severely compromised. In this context, Radev has positioned himself as a figure who publicly announces the end of this period and offers an alternative capable of attracting support from various political directions.

From Radev's personal perspective and from the point of view of his political project, the timing is very appropriate, said Boryana Dimitrova. She noted that the parliamentary political forces have given Radev a kind of freebie by providing him with this opportunity for a flying start. According to her, the situation is favourable for at least three reasons. First, he still enjoys his institutional rating, which is significantly higher than that of other political leaders. Second, the protests have increased social energy, people's desire to vote and have their voices heard. They brought to the fore the messages "mafia - anti-mafia" and "oligarchy - anti-oligarchy," which, although formulated by other political forces, will now also play in Radev's favour. Third, he avoids the need to take a position on key geopolitical issues that concern all European countries, and the uncertainty, at least for a short period of time, will work in his favour.

Change in the political landscape

Atanas Radev said that the former president made a very bold statement, especially considering his address to the nation in which he stated that he will seek "anti-mafia consensus". 

Slavkova outlined several key effects that may come as a result of Rumen Radev's resignation. The emergence of a new political project with a clearly recognizable leader could influence voter turnout by mobilizing apathetic and undecided voters, including people who do not identify with traditional parties and are looking for an alternative outside the established status quo. Slavkova added that such a move would inevitably put pressure on existing parties and could lead to both an outflow of support from certain formations and new coalition configurations. If consolidation around a new political project is successful, it is possible that parliament will be restructured with fewer political forces than in the current highly fragmented landscape. In broader terms, this would reinforce the trend towards the personalization of politics, in which trust is concentrated more in individuals than in party programmes and ideologies.

Popivanov said that the effect of Radev's resignation and the possible creation of his party would spread across the entire political spectrum. This could put smaller parties such as There Is Such a People, the BSP and others in a serious test and unsettle voters who have so far seen CC-DB or Vazrazhdane as the main opponents of the status quo. According to Popivanov, Radev's potential is significant, but expectations of him will be extremely high, with anything less than first place and fewer than 90-100 MPs being perceived as a failure. Popivanov said that, although predictions are premature, this is the first politician since 2009 with a real chance of achieving such a result. As an important consequence of the resignation, Popivanov highlighted the fact that Bulgaria has its first female president in its modern history. Iliana Iotova took office in a highly polarized political environment and with the challenge of having to appoint a caretaker government.

Dimitrova said that the nature of the political campaign will change significantly. According to her, at this stage, Radev's project has a serious chance of attracting voters from parties with similar ideological and value views. Some of these parties will be weakened to such an extent that they will not be part of the next parliament, while others may enter, but overall, the nationalist, nostalgic, and Russophile vote will be represented by Radev's project. According to her, the opposition along the lines of "status quo versus anti-status quo" will create options for a possible future partnership between Radev and some of the opposition parties, but the key here will be the vision for judicial reform. Last but not least, the clash between government decisions and the diverse expectations of voters will show how sustainable this project will be and how deeply it can change the political landscape in the country, Dimitrova concluded.