site.btaMediana Poll: Bulgaria Enters New Political Crisis

The country is entering a new type of political crisis, according to a poll by Mediana, the polling agency said. The previous crisis was a product of confrontation between parties and their inability to reach a minimum consensus and form a government. In the end, the parties reached some sort of consensus, which, however, came into sharp contradiction with the will and expectations of the majority of voters, who declared - "This is not our government!", the agency said.

At the same time, the answers to the question "Who would you vote for if the elections were today?" show that the same parties that are in the National Assembly now would be voted in. 23.3% would vote for GERB - UDF, 18% for Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), 15.4% for Vazrazhdane, 12.9% for the Movement for Rights and Freedom (MRF), 9% for the Bulgarian Socialist Party, and 5.4% for There Is Such a People (TISP).

The survey was conducted between July 18 and 24, 2023 among 976 people (18+ years) through direct standardized interview and is representative of the adult population of Bulgaria. The survey is a research project of Mediana Agency and was self-financed by the agency.

President Rumen Radev enjoys the highest trust among the respondents, and among the political leaders with the highest support are Boyko Borissov, Korneliya Ninova and Kostadin Kostadinov.

On the question "Which of these politicians would you say are really good politicians" Radev was picked by 53 respondents, GERB leader Boyko Borissov by 29, BSP leader Korneliya Ninova and Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov by 23 each. TISP leader Slavi Trifonov was mentioned by 18 respondents, followed by the MRF's Mustafa Karadayi - 17. A total of 47% of the respondents said that the government of Nikolay Denkov disappointed them, 20% were of the opposite opinion and said that the government gave them hope. 33% said they could not judge.

The survey also examines attitudes towards the introduction of the euro, Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the threat of a world war. 

The results show an increased anxiety about the danger of a global, world war. In just three months, people who believe that there is a serious danger of a world war (in which Bulgaria will also be involved) has increased by 16% and now it is almost half of the adult population - 47%.  

The reaction of the Bulgarian society to this growing anxiety and fears is summarised by Mediana as a pronounced tendency towards isolationism - distancing Bulgaria from the conflict in Ukraine, distancing Bulgaria from the one-layered "good-worst" assessment (and in this sense distancing Bulgaria from the main narrative of the EU and NATO), distancing Bulgaria from the eurozone. Roughly speaking, public opinion is consolidating around the understanding "The world is shaking, it is going bad - now is not the time to stick tightly to anyone!", the polling agency concluded.

Only 26% of adults assess Russia's aggression as unprovoked and unjustified (36% think that Russia was provoked to attack); 65% think that Bulgaria should not give arms to Ukraine (17% are in favour); 60% think that in this conflict Bulgaria should support neither Russia nor Ukraine and should be as neutral as possible (19% are in favour of supporting Ukraine; 9% think that we should support Russia).

Regarding the euro (eurozone), public opinion is also in sharp dissonance with the stated intentions of the government. Only 21% think it is good to replace the lev with the euro in the next two to three years, against 59% who say, "Now is not the time"! Half of the adults think that it is mandatory to hold a referendum on the euro and only 11% think that a referendum should not be held (which is the decision adopted by the ruling majority in parliament). The reason for rejecting the referendum is easily explained to the public - "they want to take us where we don't want to go, without taking us into account" (60% of potential referendum participants would vote against, against 23% for).