site.btaPolling Agency: Electoral Attitudes at Campaign Start Outline Five-party Parliament

ESD 17:45:00 09-09-2014
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122 POLITICS - POLLING AGENCY - ALPHA RESEARCH - SURVEY

Polling Agency: Electoral Attitudes at Campaign Start
Outline Five-party
Parliament


Sofia, September 9 (BTA) - Electoral attitudes at the launch of
the parliamentary election campaign are outlining a five-party
Parliament, a national representative survey of Alpha Research
polling agency conducted between August 31 and September 5 among
1,025 respondents showed. The results were published on the
polling agency'Тs website on Tuesday.

After its victory in the European Parliament elections GERB is
on an up-going trend with the support of 36.2 per cent of the
eligible respondents who have decided to vote. In the last three
months the party has increased its advantage over the Bulgarian
Socialist Party (BSP) by 13 percentage points. GERB also has an
additional electoral reserve from about 5 to 7 per cent of the
hesitant supporters, but it depends on the campaign whether this
will be used or not.

The BSP negative trend of the EP vote is not deepening, but it
is still at risk of losing votes. The socialists receive the
support of 22.5 per cent of the voters who are determined to
vote in the parliamentary elections. However, unlike their main
opponent GERB, their options to expand their electoral influence
are highly restricted as they are continuing to garner negative
opportunities to expand their electoral influence as they are
still under the shadow of the previous Oresharski cabinet
governance. The potential risk of a protest vote against the BSP
exists both in the right and in the left. Therefore, the
intrigue before the BSP is what its disappointed supporters will
do - whether they will not go to the polls or will cast their
votes for other left-wing or nationalist formations like ABV,
the Patriotic Front or Tatyana Doncheva's Movement 21.

There is no intrigue in the case of the Movement for Rights and
Freedoms (MRF). It is entering the campaign as the third
political force and will most probably preserve this position
until the end. MRF receives its traditional support of 12.1 per
cent of the determined voters to date, regardless of the serious
image problems and the political isolation it has fallen into
in recent months.

The Reformist Bloc has retained its positions from the EP
elections and is beginning the campaign with the support of 5.2
per cent of determined voters. In the summer months the Block
managed to overcome one of the gravest problems of the right in
recent years, i.e. the fact that it is mainly concentrated in
the capital, and at the beginning of September already had
visible support in nearly half of the constituencies in the
country.

Bulgaria without Censorship is the party which has sustained the
most tangible losses in comparison to the EP elections. It has
preserved its chances of being represented in Parliament but on
a downward trend and with considerably less support (4.4 per
cent of the determined voters).

Another two formations are on the border of passing the 4 per
cent election threshold - ABV (with 3.9 per cent) and the
Patriotic Front (with 3.7 per cent). Ataka remains slightly
below them with 2.9 per cent of the determined voters. The
results for these parties will depend highly on the degree to
which the protest vote against the BSP will be mobilised. The
higher it is the more the chances of one of them to overcome the
4 per cent barrier will be - and vice versa, the survey shows.


On the basis of electoral attitudes at the beginning of the
election campaign, the social scientists from Alpha Research
outlined the following hypotheses about its outcome, according
to the order of probability:

The most probable hypothesis is that of a five-party
Parliament. In addition to the four definite entrants - GERB,
BSP, MRF and the Reformist Bloc - Bulgaria without Censorship
stands the highest chances of representation in the National
Assembly. However, considering how close several other parties
are to the 4 per cent barrier, a "battle" for the fifth place is
also possible. The hypothetical calculation of the number of
MPs only for those parties which pass the 4 per cent barrier
shows: GERB with between 105 and 110, BSP between 63 and 68, MRF
35-38, the Reformist Bloc about 16, Bulgaria without Censorship
about 13.

At such a distribution of forces, there is an opportunity to
form an, albeit fragile, right-centre majority between GERB and
the Reformist Bloc, the social scientists say.

There is a moderate readiness to participate in the elections as
3.2-3.3 million voters have declared their intention to
participate in the forthcoming vote.

According to the survey, the pessimism regarding the development
of the country which marked the governance of the previous
Oresharski cabinet continued to dominate in the beginning of
September. The public is highly at odds in its expectations
about the situation after the elections: 30 per cent think
things will calm down and there will be better governance, while
another 30 per cent are of the opinion that there will be
confrontation and instability again. These public attitudes are
based on both the disappointment from the last BSP-MRF-Ataka
government and on the insecurity and concern about the financial
situation in the country.

At the same time, key state institutions continue to suffer from
a deficit of confidence. Only President Rosen Plevneliev has
improved his ratings in the last few months. Approval of his
work has increased from 25 per cent in April to 28 per cent in
September, while disapproval has dropped from 40 to 34 per cent.

Most of the voters are unfamiliar with the work of the caretaker
government and Prime Minister Georgi Bliznashki. One in two (56
per cent) is not in a condition to express an opinion on this
matter. Those who are familiar with it are at opposite poles: 20
per cent have a positive view of the incumbent cabinet's work
while 24 per cent have a negative one; PM Bliznashki's personal
rating is 21 per cent approval against 23 per cent disapproval.

Two of the institutions with a key role in resolving the
troubled Corpbank problem have accumulated strong criticism over
recent months - the Bulgarian National Bank and Prosecutor
General Sotir Tsatsarov. To date, approval for the BNB has
shrunk to 11 per cent compared to a disapproval of 48 per cent.
The Prosecutor General's approval rating has dropped by 10
points in comparison to April and was 15 per cent (positive)
against 41 (negative) at the beginning of September.

The Corpbank crisis has raised considerable public concern, the
survey shows. Most of the respondents (54 per cent) are afraid
that new problems with the banks and a destabilization of
financial stability are possible. Partial, isolated problems are
expected by 34 per cent of the interviewees and only 10 per
cent are sure the crisis has been overcome.

The public mainly perceives the responsibility for the Corpbank
case as institutional. One in three of the respondents sees
politicians who availed themselves of the opportunity as the
guilty party for the crisis, 29 per cent accuse the BNB and the
lack of sufficient control on its part. As a result, there are
high expectations of transparency at the resolution of the case.
That is why 64 per cent insist that the Corpbank credit files
should be opened to see whether there are public figures who
have benefited, compared to a mere 12 per cent who declare
themselves in favour of preserving the bank secret. The public
is unable to state the best way to resolve the crisis with
Corpbank but it is adamant this should not be done with public
financial resources./SN/BR