site.btaBulgaria Among EU Countries Hardest Hit by US Tariffs, Analysis Finds

Bulgaria is among the EU countries hardest hit by the US tariffs introduced on April 2, 2025, the Applied Research and Communications Fund (ARC Fund) said on Wednesday.

The findings come from a joint analysis by ARC Fund and the Global Trade and Innovation Policy Alliance (GTIPA) on the impact on the EU and Bulgaria.

The analysis, covering 25 countries, including 10 in Europe, finds that in the first year after the tariffs took effect, from April 2025 to March 2026, EU exports to the US fell by 13.7%, while the EU’s trade surplus narrowed by 35.6%. Bulgaria is among the hardest-hit countries, with exports to the US down 23.7% year on year, while by January 2026 the decline had reached 42% compared with a year earlier. Metals are especially exposed, with copper exports down 65.3% and aluminium down 93.2%, as are precision medical devices, which fell 42.9%.

Despite the shock, Bulgaria’s real GDP grew by 3.1% in 2025, twice the EU average of 1.5%, the analysts said. They noted, however, that growth was driven mainly by services, which expanded by 5.8%, while industry slipped 0.3%, raising concerns over long-term industrial resilience.

At EU level, the bloc responded by diversifying trade ties: provisionally applying the trade agreement with Mercosur from May 1, 2026, advancing talks with India and Indonesia, and striking new arrangements on critical metals. The authors warned, however, that regulatory control alone is not enough to secure digital sovereignty: the intellectual property deficit widened by 14.6%, while the deficit in business services grew by 35.8%. For Bulgaria, the analysis calls for a sector-based approach, higher research and development investment to 1.5% of GDP, faster implementation of the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) mechanism for dual-use technologies, and a decisive crackdown on corruption and poor governance as a prerequisite for attracting constructive capital.