site.btaPublic Tension Index Remains High at 6.88 in First Quarter

Public tension in Bulgarian society remains high, with the index measured jointly by the Centre for Analysis and Crisis Communications and the Myara polling agency standing at 6.88 in the first quarter of the year, the two organizations said on Thursday. They publish the index every three months. This marks a slight increase compared to the previous period, when it was 6.76, keeping the indicator in the category of “high index, hard-to-control risks”, the statement said.

The public tension index ranges from 0 to 10. According to the scale, values between 0 and 3.99 indicate low tension with fully controllable risks, between 4 and 5.99 indicate medium tension with well-controlled risks, between 6 and 7.99 indicate high tension with hard-to-control risks, and between 8 and 10 indicate very high tension with an almost unmanageable situation.

Political tension, characteristic of the final months of 2025, has declined, but factors driving anxiety now include both the real and perceived rise in prices, as well as the Petrohan tragedy, which has received significant public attention, the analysis said.

The Centre for Analysis and Crisis Communications and Myara noted that rising prices remain the main driver of public tension. Expectations of further price increases continue to grow compared to previous quarters.

The corruption index, based on data from international organizations, also remains high and contributes to overall tension.

Traditional pre-election tension has also had an impact, characterized by low levels of positive attitudes towards most institutions. During part of the period under review, Bulgaria was in an election campaign, during which trust in the government slightly increased, while trust in other institutions remained largely unchanged, the statement added.

A significant increase has been observed in the share of negative media and social media coverage compared to positive content, according to the two organizations. The Petrohan tragedy has had a noticeable impact on public anxiety, the analysis found.

The number of registered protests during the period is lower, as is the number of participants, but media coverage and online engagement remain high in both volume and intensity.

The previous report indicated that the most significant factors behind peak tension in the last quarter of 2025 were debates and political behaviour surrounding the adoption of the state budget, which triggered large protests. The government’s resignation helped ease tensions, but risks remain, the analysts said.