site.btaIMF Lowers Economic Growth Forecast for Bulgaria

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for Bulgaria’s economic growth in 2026 to 2.8% from 3.1% in its October 2025 projections, according to the latest World Economic Outlook published Tuesday.

At the same time, the estimate for economic growth in 2025 has been slightly revised upward to 3.1%, from 3% in the previous forecast. For 2027, growth is expected to slow further to 2.5%.

Despite the downward revision, Bulgaria’s projected growth rate remains above the eurozone average, where the economy is expected to expand by 1.4% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027.

The IMF ptojections also point to an acceleration of inflation in Bulgaria to 3.8% in 2026, up from 3.5% in 2025, followed by a slight slowdown to 3.7% in 2027. In the October forecast, inflation for the current year was expected to reach 3.4%.

The revisions for Bulgaria align with a broader trend in IMF projections amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the economic effects of the conflict in the Middle East.

Regarding the external sector, the current account deficit is expected to reach 4% of GDP in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, following a reported deficit of 5.9% in 2025.

The labor market is projected to remain stable, with employment growth of 3.4% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, after 3.6% in 2025.