site.btaWar Is No Longer Unthinkable - EU Defence Commissioner

Speaking at the European Defence and Security Summit in Brussels on Tuesday, EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius said that war is no longer unthinkable. “At the moment in terms of capabilities we have only around 50% of what we need to have according to NATO defence plans,” he added. 

Kubilius said that “we are facing ‘a perfect storm’ in our security and defence readiness situation, which looks like this: War in Ukraine is continuing - without clear perspectives of peace. Putin does not want peace. And diplomacy will not help. […] Russian aggressiveness is increasing. […] Putin will continue to mobilise Russia's war economy and will plan his next aggression [...] This time against the EU; The forthcoming American withdrawal from Europe is a new reality. This does not mean American withdrawal from NATO.” “Such a ‘perfect storm’ means a deep defence crisis on the European continent,” the EU Commissioner said.

In his words, IISS and Bruegel think tanks estimate that the cost to replace US resources are an additional 300,000 military personnel and USD 1 trillion. “The European Union is not at war, but we live in times of war,” he said, adding that “Putin is not planning to stop.” “That's why we now urgently need to get into shape. Get our peacetime European Union ‘body’ ready for defence, and to be fighting fit,” Kubilius said. “We need to understand that between peace times and war times, there is a special defence readiness time,” he noted, adding that ”this is the only way how we can deter aggression.”

Kubilius highlighted the importance of successful defence and space industries, adding that investment in them is crucial both for the defence and for competitiveness of Europe. “Bureaucracy must not be an obstacle to our defence. Both on the EU level and national level,” he said. 

The EU Commissioner said that actions “very much depend on an answer to this question: what kind of war do we need to be ready to fight and to be ready to defend ourselves?” He noted that 80% of targets in Ukraine are destroyed by drones. “Ukraine during this year will produce and will use 4 million drones. Russia – a similar amount,” he added. 

“Looking into the ‘material‘ side of our readiness and also additional need for simplification, later this year we will present an initiative on military mobility,” Kubilius said. “We need a military Schengen to move troops and tanks quickly where they are needed,” he added.