site.btaPodkrepa Confederation of Labour Flags Deficit Risks, Calls for Timely, Sustainable Measures

Rising deficit risks this year and next require timely, sustainable decisions that support the economy rather than impoverish people, Podkrepa Confederation of Labour said in a forecast on the 2025 State budget, published on its website on Thursday.

The planned deficit in the 2025 State budget is BGN 7.1 billion. According to the forecast of the trade union, the maximum additional deficit would be up to BGN 5.9 billion more than the limit set by law, provided that revenues do not meet the worst-case scenario and certain expenditure items, such as transfers to municipalities, are exceeded. With such a pessimistic performance of revenues and expenditure, the deficit will grow to BGN 13.0 billion.

In an optimistic revenue scenario, a shortfall of BGN 4.6 billion, and optimistic savings in expenditure of BGN 4.3 billion, the budget deficit will be up to BGN 7.5 billion, very close to the budget target.

In the second optimistic scenario, a revenue shortfall of BGN 3.5 billion is expected, with cost savings of BGN 4.3 billion. In this scenario, the budget deficit is expected to reach BGN 6.4 billion, which is BGN 0.7 billion less than the deficit set by law, the union says. 

Based on the estimates made by the Podkrepa Confederation of Labour, using two methods to forecast the anticipated revenue performance in the 2025 state budget, expected revenues are to be between BGN 46.4 billion and BGN 51.6 billion, compared to the BGN 55.2 billion stipulated by law.

In a realistic scenario, forecasting the implementation of the expenditure part of the budget, the savings would amount to about BGN 2.2 billion, assuming that the government’s transfers to municipalities will be at their 2024 level, given the disasters in the country, the water crisis, and other similar issues. If the planned transfers to municipalities are made and there is no overspending on subsidies, the savings on the expenditure side would be BGN 4.3 billion, the union adds.