site.btaMedia Review: April 16

APRIL 19 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

A sociological survey commissioned by bTV and conducted by the Market Links polling agency shows that five parties are expected to enter next Parliament, with one of them clearly standing out above the rest. The survey was conducted among 1,003 respondents aged over 18 across the country between April 7 and 14, 2026, using face-to-face interviews and an online questionnaire.

Leading voter preferences is Progressive Bulgaria with 30.8% support, followed by GERB-UDF with 18%. In third place is Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) with 11.2%, followed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms at 6.5%, and Vazrazhdane at 4.2%. Below the 4% threshold required to enter parliament are Velichie (Grandeur) with 3.1%, Siyanie (Radiance) with 2.3%, Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) with 2%, and BSP – United Left with 2%.

“We expect significantly higher voter turnout. Progressive Bulgaria is drawing support from these newly engaged Bulgarian citizens entering the electoral process,” sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov from Market Links told bTV. “In the current picture we observe, around 15% of voters have not yet decided whom to support. About 90% of the undecided so far appear to be leaning toward Progressive Bulgaria,” Zhivkov added. “We expect a strongly defined leader to emerge – one who claims to bring change to the political governance model,” he concluded.

The survey’s results are widely covered by Bulgarian online media, including Bulgarian National Radio (BNR), Segabg.com, Mediapool.bg, Dnevnik.bg, the 24 Chasa daily, among others.

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In а BNR interview, Tsvetelina Peneva of the Public Council to the Central Election Commission, commented that there are signs Bulgaria has learned some of the hard lessons from organizing previous parliamentary elections.

“For the first time, the provision of the Electoral Code regulating the removal of polling booths in voting rooms and the introduction of standardized voting screens is being applied. We have been saying for two years that the dark booths should become a thing of the past. There were cases of people photographing their ballots,” she said.

She also commented on the tally sheet format. “In the last elections, we observed errors and corrections. We proposed changes to optimize it. We hope it will be easier for members of district election commissions to complete after the end of election day. Training will also be very important. The Central Election Commission has introduced measures stating that replacements of commission members should occur only in circumstances that truly require it and after a written request.”

Peneva also said that all procedures at the Ministry of Electronic Governance were completed early enough to allow for the smooth installation of voting machines. “A verification of the installed software is currently underway. The processes have been carried out with full transparency,” she added.

“It is also important that we go out and vote. When voter turnout is high, the share of controlled voting becomes negligibly small,” Peneva reminded listeners.

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An analysis, published by Segabg.com, tells that election campaign programmes and debates reveal a mix of widely acknowledged problems and potentially risky proposals regarding pensions, social policy, and healthcare. While many parties clearly identify systemic issues, their solutions often repeat long-standing promises without real progress.

There is broad consensus that the formula linking the minimum wage to 50% of the average wage should be revised. GERB-UDF and CC-DB support more flexible mechanisms tied to productivity and economic conditions, while Progressive Bulgaria’s position remains unclear. At the same time, no party proposes raising social security contributions, instead focusing on tackling the shadow economy, though past positions suggest inconsistency.

Pension reform remains largely avoided, with no concrete roadmap despite ongoing discussions. Instead, platforms emphasize general goals like active aging and better social services. However, a controversial proposal from Progressive Bulgaria suggests repealing the recently adopted multi-fund system in private pension funds. Meanwhile, CC-DB has floated the idea of pension increases above the standard indexation rule, despite fiscal concerns.

In healthcare, there is agreement on the need to restructure the oversized hospital system and reduce out-of-pocket payments. Proposed solutions include reforming inefficient hospitals into long-term care centres (GERB), optimizing the hospital network (Progressive Bulgaria), revising clinical pathways, and introducing new financing models. CC-DB emphasizes cost control and better procurement. Despite these proposals, many ideas have been discussed for years without tangible results, Segabg.com concludes.

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Dnevnik.bg publishes an analysis saying that predictions about whether the April 19 elections will produce a regular government remain highly uncertain. Both political actors and observers agree the situation is complex, despite expectations among leading parties that a government will eventually be formed. The main difficulty stems from sharp campaign tensions, especially between Progressive Bulgaria, led by Rumen Radev, and Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria. Although both share anti-corruption goals, their differences, particularly in foreign policy, and escalating mutual attacks complicate cooperation.

A single-party majority appears highly unlikely, continuing Bulgaria’s pattern of fragmented parliaments and unstable coalitions since 2021. Even if Progressive Bulgaria wins convincingly, it is not expected to secure 121 seats. Turnout levels may play a key role, with higher participation potentially benefiting the leading party.

If no majority is achieved, scenarios include a minority government supported issue-by-issue, possibly with backing from smaller political forces such as BSP – United Left. However, potential partners remain cautious due to political risks and upcoming presidential elections.

Another possible area of cooperation is judicial reform, particularly replacing the Supreme Judicial Council, which requires a two-thirds majority of 160 MPs. While both major blocs prioritize this, it is unclear whether it would lead to a governing coalition or only limited parliamentary cooperation.

Before government formation, parliament must first elect a chairperson – a process seen as a key test for forming a majority and complicated by political fragmentation.

Overall, despite shared rhetoric against oligarchic influence, deep divisions between parties and mutual accusations make coalition-building difficult. Most parties also rule out cooperation with MRF and its leader Delyan Peevski. If all mandates to form a government fail, new early elections remain a likely outcome.

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The Trud tabloid daily has an interview with political scientist Stoycho Stoychev, who comments that the most likely governing scenario after the April 19 elections is a coalition between Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria and CC-DB. Such a partnership could secure a narrow majority of around 121-127 seats, but would face serious challenges, according to him. One key issue is the risk that CC-DB might try to impose conditions on Radev, similar to their past approach toward GERB Chair Boyko Borissov, seeking concessions in exchange for support. It is uncertain whether Radev and his backers would accept such pressure, especially given indications that he aims for stable governance rather than another cycle of early elections. His programme suggests an intention to form a durable government that could last beyond the upcoming presidential vote later in 2026.

Stoychev argues that, in order to reduce dependence on a single partner, Radev would likely seek to expand the coalition with smaller parties. Potential participants could include MECh or, if it passes the threshold, the BSP – United Left coalition, making a broader coalition a plausible outcome.

A “grand coalition” with GERB-UDF is seen by Stoychev as less likely but would offer stability, expertise, and administrative capacity, particularly in managing EU-funded projects. However, such an alliance would be politically difficult to justify, given Radev’s long-standing criticism of Borissov’s governance model. While technically feasible, it would carry significant reputational risks and remains uncertain, Stoychev says.

ENERGY

24 Chasa has a lead interview with environmental management and energy expert Boyan Rashev, who warns of potential fuel and gas shortages if tensions in the Persian Gulf persist, particularly due to damage to key oil and liquefied gas infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. He says a prolonged blockade could lead to global supply deficits, with countries competing for limited resources, while Europe may struggle to secure sufficient imports amid stronger competition from Asian markets.

The expert notes that around 20% of global LNG exports are currently unavailable, while supply chains have been further strained by weather-related disruptions in Australia. He cautiones that the European Union’s reliance on spot markets, unlike Asian countries with long-term contracts, could deepen the shortage. According to him, high gas prices may force difficult choices on its use, prioritizing industrial production over electricity generation. He also warned of possible diesel shortages, which could require political decisions on fuel allocation.

The expert stresses the importance of maintaining refinery operations in Bulgaria, noting that the country is in a relatively favourable position due to its complex refining capacity. However, he warns that broader market disruptions could still affect supply.

He also criticizes EU carbon trading policies, arguing they increase energy costs and burden industry at a time of crisis. At the same time, he cautiones against imposing price caps on fuels, saying they could distort the market and lead to actual shortages.

HEALTH

Prof. Iva Hristova, Director of the National Centre for Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, told Bulgarian National Television that a total of 132 confirmed measles cases have been registered in Bulgaria. The largest outbreak remains in the Vratsa region, with 103 cases. She said that cases have been reported across 11 regions, describing the situation not as a nationwide epidemic but as an outbreak. After Vratsa, the highest numbers are in Pleven (13 cases), Lovech (8), and Sofia City (2), while the remaining cases are isolated.

According to the expert, the disease is spreading mainly among people who have been in contact with already infected individuals. “The virus is extremely virulent and spreads very quickly in environments where people lack immunity,” Hristova warned.

She added that children between the ages of 1 and 14 are the most affected. A key issue, she stressed, is the lack of awareness among parents, alongside strong resistance in some groups to vaccinating their children. Hristova emphasized that there are no scientifically valid reasons to refuse vaccination and said that negative attitudes are largely driven by misinformation.

She also noted that neighbouring countries are seeing a rise in measles cases, particularly Romania, where there has been a major outbreak with over 2,800 cases since 2025.

REAL ESTATE

Interest in luxury houses around Sofia is rising sharply, according to data from the real estate company Unique Estates, which focuses on the high-end property market, as reported on the frontpage of Trud. Demand is strongest for luxury homes in Sofia’s outskirts, including areas such as Lozen, Pancharevo, Kambanite, Bistritsa, and Bankya. Buyers are not only focused on location but also on construction quality. Luxury properties in Bulgaria are mainly purchased by Bulgarian buyers. In the first quarter of the year, there were 20 sales of properties worth over EUR 1 million, the same as in the previous quarter, which is typically the strongest period of the year. The data suggest that the luxury market remains active even after Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone, with buyers avoiding the earlier market “euphoria” and preferring calmer conditions for such high-value decisions.

For budgets of EUR 600,000 – EUR 700,000, buyers most often choose new-build homes due to flexible payment schemes and better energy efficiency, which also leads to more favourable bank financing conditions. There is also growth in transactions up to EUR 300,000, entirely concentrated in new developments in Sofia districts such as Malinova Dolina, Manastirski Livadi-East, and Vazrazhdane, with a 38% increase compared to late 2025. At the same time, the EUR 300,000 – 500,000 segment has declined significantly, with some buyers postponing purchases, switching to renting, or financing through property sales.

A notable increase in luxury property purchases is also reported in Plovdiv, where strong family-owned businesses support demand. Unlike Sofia, where buyers often come from across the country, many Plovdiv residents prefer to remain in the city and invest locally.