site.btaMedia Review: January 21

POLITICS

In an interview for Bulgarian National Radio (BNR) Assoc. Prof. Alexander Hristov, a media and communications expert and university lecturer, said that Rumen Radev's behaviour suggests that he is acting like a messiah. "It is clear what he will stand against - everything we call the model or the status quo, which is an extremely abstract and very chaotic thing. That's how messiahs talk. The exact words he'll pick to get people excited and vote for his political project aren't that important. What matters more is who he is and what he does. He's there, and people are waiting for him.” Hristov added that Radev has taken on “the role of saviour". The main asset of Radev’s project is Radev himself, according to Hristov, "we saw how the last two messiahs, [There Is Such a People leader] Slavi Trifonov and [former Continue the Change co-chair] Kiril Petkov, burned out very quickly. It is difficult to turn support into votes in elections." Radev's communication behaviour shows that he aims to reach as large an audience as possible, i.e., more voters, the PR expert explained, adding that "in practice, he did not reach out to anyone in his address. He did not say that he would work with any party." According to Hristov, the final result depends greatly on the election campaign that Radev will lead.

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Speaking to BNR sociologist Kancho Stoychev said, “I expect Rumen Radev to announce a people’s movement, not a party.” He predicted that Radev's appearance in the early parliamentary elections will lead to higher voter turnout. "He did not say that he would build a party. In the address we heard, there was not a single word about organizational aspects. This is no coincidence." According to Stoychev, with Radev on the political scene, Bulgaria will return to where it belongs in politics, in Eastern Europe as a way of thinking: "Because we, the people of Eastern Europe, remember the recent past very well. The West has forgotten the past, forgotten the war, forgotten totalitarianism, and left reality behind. And Europe is moving rapidly toward disaster. Eastern Europe is the progressive part of Europe, the progressive part of the EU." According to Stoychev, after the elections, the possibility of GERB leader Boyko Borissov partnering with Radev is greater than that of Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) partnering with the former president. "Borissov is much more experienced and down-to-earth, he does not fall into ideological traps, he is centrist and has the necessary degree of flexibility in the political process. All qualities that CC-DB lacks."

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On bTVs morning programme, sociologists Dobromir Zhivkov and Yuri Aslanov, along with former energy minister Miroslav Sevlievski, outlined expectations for the upcoming elections and Radev’s potential impact. The analysts agreed that Radev’s entry into party politics is unlikely to change Bulgaria’s geopolitical orientation. According to Aslanov, Bulgaria’s long-standing pro-European course enjoys majority public support and cannot easily be reversed by a new political leader. Sevlievski added that despite Radev’s past rhetoric, particularly statements that raised doubts about his stance on Ukraine, he is unlikely to openly promote eurosceptic or pro-Russian positions, as Bulgarian society does not support such a direction and “there is no turning back from the euro”. Zhivkov noted that the caretaker governments appointed by Radev over recent years did not pursue any geopolitical reorientation. While Radev’s rhetoric sometimes resembles that of Hungary’s Viktor Orban, albeit in a milder form, it is unclear whether this will become a core element of his political platform or “merely a way to appeal to a broader segment of voters”. Radev’s political project could attract a large share of voters who currently do not participate in elections or who oppose the established parties GERB and MRF. Sevlievski suggested that Radev’s emergence could marginalize nationalist party Vazrazhdane, while Aslanov predicted that Radev’s move would significantly reshape Bulgaria’s party system. The analysts expect Radev to be a leading political force in the upcoming elections, potentially finishing first, but without securing an absolute majority. His entry into politics is seen as likely to mobilize non-voters and draw support from existing parties, signalling a new phase in Bulgaria’s political landscape.

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Duma daily’s front-page headline says that President Rumen Radev officially submitted his resignation to the Constitutional Court. Immediately afterwards, the court instituted a case, Iliana Iotova will be sworn in as president immediately after the court's ruling. At present, there is no data on how much support Radev’s new party would enjoy, the article reads. The Alpha Research polling agency recalled an old study in which a hypothetical presidential project showed results comparable to those of GERB. However, the study was conducted in a completely different political environment and probably cannot be considered representative. Parvan Simeonov, political scientist and sociologist from the Myara polling agency, predicted good results for Radev's party. He warned that Radev still has to prove that he can be a politician, make compromises, and negotiate, because Bulgaria’s public environment is fragmented and it would be difficult for anyone to mobilize it entirely for a parliamentary vote.

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Attempts are being made to undermine the Election Code and steal the vote, Continue the Change MP Bogdan Bogdanov said, speaking on Nova TV’s morning programme. The meeting of the Committee on Constitutional and Legal Affairs, at which amendments to the Election Code were voted on at second reading, lasted more than 14 hours and ended after 4:00 a.m. "They are rushing things. I heard from colleagues that this week, on Thursday or Friday, the report will be submitted to the National Assembly," Bogdanov said. He believes that there are outrageous proposals, such as the election campaign lasting only 20 days. "My colleagues fought to remove the proposal to ban opinion polls on election day," Bogdanov added. He also commented on a potential partnership with Rumen Radev after the elections. "In recent months, Bulgarians have realized that the future of the country is in their hands. There is no need for a saviour, but rather for an active civic position, for resistance to any attempt to compromise the normal development of the country. We have two main priorities: to build a strong Bulgaria with strong, functioning institutions and the rule of law, and to ensure that our country is a full member and partner in building a strong European Union. These priorities are at the heart of our discussions with everyone we could potentially work with," Bogdanov said. He described the president's answers to important foreign policy questions as contradictory. "This does not give us confidence that we could confirm partnership with Radev’s potential party at this moment,” Bogadnov added.

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Varna Mayor Blagomir Kotsev told Bulgarian National Television’s morning programme, “I think this is a major change in the country's political life. We have been talking about the president stepping down for a long time, it is now a fact. For years, CC-DB has been fighting the battle, we have been fighting for years, the battle against the status quo. My case clearly shows what can happen to anyone who stands against this status quo.” Kotsev added that if Radev shows with his actions that “he will be a fighter against the takeover of the state, I think that is good and he is a potential partner." Kotsev explained that CC-DB "have some concerns about what Radev’s foreign policy course will be. Each of us has doubts. I, personally, hope that our positions will coincide because we need allies in the battle against the mafia." Blagomir Kotsev did not rule out the possibility of being asked to stand as a candidate in the presidential elections later this year. He said that if this happens "he will consider this nomination, but it is not on the agenda." He is confident that the coalition will put forward a worthy presidential candidate who could reach the second round and win the election. "The presidential elections are also important. It is important to have a president who will lead this battle. Someone who will be on the side of the people and will not play along with the status quo," Kotsev added.

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Petar Moskov, leader of the Conservative Union of the Right (KOD), part of the Blue Bulgaria coalition told BNR that when a raised fist is a party programme, this does not promise good things for anyone. The president's party does not represent anything new or different in Bulgarian politics. According to him, Radev's position is Eurasian and he could be the leader of a united and stronger left under his leadership. "Radev is not the alternative. The conflict between [Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning leader Delyan] Peevski and Radev is over control of this stifling all human initiative state. Peevski and Radev are not an alternative to this model of a stifling state," Moskov added. According to him, Radev and Peevski are "the different sides of the same thing". Europe is waking up from its rose-coloured dream of being a social home, a multicultural refuge. It must stop being that and return to its predatory nature, and to do so, "we must abandon the liberal lies on the issue," he said. Moskov also expressed his expectation that GERB would say whether they could keep their distance from Peevski, and CC-DB whether they could keep their distance from Radev's movement. 

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Former defence minister Todor Tagarev, speaking to bTV’s morning programme in connection with the resignation of President Rumen Radev and the expectation that Vice President Iliana Iotova will succeed him in office, said that there is nothing wrong with a woman being president of Bulgaria and commander-in-chief of the army, but it is a problem when someone who has received only a handful of votes becomes head of State. According to him, the effect of Radev's entry into politics will lead to the "disappearance of pro-Russian parties" from parliament. He predicted that half of the Vazrazhdane electorate will support Rumen Radev. He added that it is still unclear what direction the outgoing president will take regarding Bulgaria's European future. "He is trying to position himself as an anti-systemic and anti-corruption player, but his experience shows that this is far from the truth. He had three cabinets entirely of his own choosing, and we saw actions that did not suggest fair play, instead, hidden dependencies were noticed. He has proven that he is not pro-European and democratically minded," Tagarev added.

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Business owner Tania Skrinska told Nova TV’s morning programme that the president's appearance on the political scene came as no surprise to anyone. "I expect an increase in voter turnout and a high result for the head of State. Radev will have to respond to two key questions: one regarding the country's geopolitical orientation and the other regarding his attitude towards the eurozone and the adoption of the single currency," Skrinska said. According to her, the public will be looking more closely than ever at the people around the president. "Whether they have connections to the former State Security will also be monitored by his political opponents. Our parliament is divided on the basis of foreign policy positions. The president will not want to form a coalition with anyone. He will try to get the maximum number of votes."

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Political scientist Lyubomir Stefanov in a front-page interview for Telegraf daily says that Radev wants to be like Orban and Trump. “We know how close Russia is to him, as well as some other patriots,” Stefanov said, adding, “we know he doesn’t like democracy too much and we know that he obviously holds something against Europe. These are things that a large part of Bulgarians, perhaps even a greater part of Bulgarians, are worried about. And he will have to find a way to tell us about that, or we will have to remind him of what he told us, and he will have to explain whether it’s true or not.” According to Stefanov Radev’s election campaign will possibly resemble that of Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha in 2001, “he will be the blade of the attack, so that questions such as: who are the people in the candidate lists and where did they come from, can’t be asked, which will create the illusion, or continue to keep the illusion, that we’re actually voting for him. This will allow him to have no party platform, since there will be no party of his own; to have no political priorities to relate to the voters, except for the generalized ones. This will allow him to avoid answering unpleasant questions and possibly decline participation in televised debates.”

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24Chasa’s front-page article runs a detailed analysis of who will be leaving the presidential administration together with Rumen Radev, as he needs to have 480 tested individuals on hand to fill his lists of candidates for MPs. The major parties usually register lists with twice as many names as the 240-seat parliament. This ensures that they will not find themselves short of candidates, especially if they have to fill in the executive branch with their elected representatives. There will certainly be a queue of people wanting to be on Radev's lists, but it is also certain that he needs loyal people who have proven themselves in battle. People who will be able to cope in the legislature and who will not undermine Radev's commitment to new laws and a new social contract. Figures that are attractive to the public, against whom smear campaigns will be difficult to organize in the stormy election campaign ahead. Among those who are likely to join Radev is his new endeavours as political leader are the secretary-general to the president Tsveta Timeva, the head of his cabinet Galab Donev, his six secretaries, a large part of his advisors. Probably about half will remain part of Iotova's team, 24Chasa writes. In the regions, preparations for the presidential project are proceeding feverishly, albeit quietly. Radev's people have been clear for months. Zdravko Dimitrov, Plovdiv’s former mayor, for example, is one of the most active. He has never hidden his closeness to Radev, even when he was GERB’s mayor. Plovdiv is key for Radev not only as the second largest city in the country, but also because he lived there in his younger years while he was a pilot and commander of the Graf Ignatievo air base. His closest associates, Koprinkov and Uzunov, are from Plovdiv and they will remain close to him in his new role. Quite a few former military and police officers hope to be included in the presidential project, the newspaper writes. [The President's Domestic Policy Secretary Nikolay Koprinkov, allegedly involved in corruption through public procurement. Plamen Uzunov, legal advisor to the President and former Secretary for Legal Affairs and Anti-corruption, charged in 2020 with criminal conspiracy and misconduct; case closed in 2023 after prosecutors found no evidence of criminal activity.]

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Dnevnik.bg runs a story about the readiness of the potential caretaker prime ministers, in the pool from which the president may choose, to accept the appointment. President Rumen Radev’s resignation has clarified his intention to enter active politics, the story reads, but it has also raised many questions about how the constitutional procedure for appointing a caretaker prime minister and government will unfold. This process directly affects the election date, as the decrees appointing a caretaker cabinet and calling early elections must be issued together by the head of state. If there is sufficient political will, both in the presidency and in parliament, to hold parliamentary elections on March 29, all uncertainties must be resolved within the next eight days. Under the Constitution, there must be a two-month period between the appointment of a caretaker government and the election date. According to the presidency, Vice President Iliana Iotova will conduct negotiations on forming the caretaker government, pending a decision by the Constitutional Court on Radev’s resignation. Once the Constitutional Court rules on the resignation, the formal procedure to appoint a caretaker government will begin. Iotova is expected to consult parliamentary groups and potential caretaker prime ministers from the legally defined list of ten senior state officials. Due to the tight deadlines, selecting a caretaker prime minister and cabinet is proving complex and uncertain. Legal experts note that Bulgaria cannot be left without a government: until agreement is reached on a caretaker cabinet, the current government in resignation remains in office, but elections cannot be scheduled. Consultations with potential caretaker prime ministers suggest willingness from officials at the National Audit Office, while representatives of the Bulgarian National Bank and the Ombudsman’s office have so far shown reluctance. If there is not enough time to form a caretaker government by January 29, April 19 is being discussed as the next possible election date, since the weeks before that include major religious holidays such as Palm Sunday and Easter.

JUDICIARY

Segabg.com reports that the Bulgarian Judges Association (BJA) is calling on the Supreme Court of Cassation (SCC) to open an interpretative case to determine whether Borislav Sarafov remains a legitimate acting Prosecutor General after July 21, 2025. Interpretative rulings have the force of law and are binding on all courts. The request was submitted last Monday to Supreme Court of Cassation President Galina Zaharieva. The demand is based on contradictory court practice regarding Sarafov’s authority to request the reopening of criminal cases after that date. Many courts have ruled that he is no longer acting Prosecutor General and have therefore refused to consider his requests, which, according to the Judges Association, leads to missed opportunities to correct serious legal violations in criminal proceedings. Other judges, however, accept that Sarafov remains legitimate because the Prosecutors College of the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) has adopted such a position. The dispute stems from legal amendments adopted last year, which limit the term of an acting Prosecutor General to a maximum of six months. Sarafov has been acting Prosecutor General since June 2023, following the dismissal of the former officeholder Ivan Geshev. As the law entered into force on January 21, 2025, his six-month term is considered by many to have expired on July 21, after which the SJC should have appointed a new acting Prosecutor General. Instead, the Prosecutors College of the SJC ruled that the limitation applies only to the next acting official, effectively allowing Sarafov to remain indefinitely. A regular procedure to elect a new Prosecutor General cannot be launched either, because the mandate of the SJC itself expired back in October 2022. The Judges Association has submitted a list of relevant court rulings to the Supreme Court, showing that the majority of judicial panels consider Sarafov’s mandate to have ended after July 21. Although the SCC’s Criminal Chamber has internally adopted a position that Sarafov lacks legitimacy after that date, this decision is not an interpretative ruling and therefore is not legally binding on other courts. Meanwhile, the issue of Sarafov’s legitimacy is also before the Constitutional Court. The case was initiated by the Varna Court of Appeal, which is asking the Constitutional Court to strike down the six-month limitation, arguing that the Supreme Judicial Council’s inaction has created an unacceptable legal vacuum. Public protests against Sarafov are also continuing, with another demonstration scheduled in front of the Palace of Justice.

NATO

National and international security expert Ivaylo Ivanov told BNR that NATO without the US won't be easy but is possible. "If the US withdraws, and this American administration destroys NATO with its actions, Europe must work, so that it will be ready to build a new defence system with Canada, the UK, and Norway, who are not members of the EU. This will require effort. There is no doubt that we cannot continue to act in this way without making an effort and without making some sacrifices and remaining capable of defending ourselves on the international stage against countries that are absolutely unscrupulous and ready to use all possible means to achieve their interests. If we do not agree to this, a rather sad future awaits us." According to him, Donald Trump is on the verge of doing what all Soviet leaders since Stalin have tried unsuccessfully to do - destroy NATO. "There is no doubt that the annexation of Greenland in some way, whether through economic coercion or directly through the use of military force, will truly spell the end of NATO, because this organization was created on the principle that countries will defend each other, and the aggressor will be outside NATO," the expert said. According to him, Europe must begin to discuss the issue of nuclear weapons, because this will be a very long and very difficult debate.

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Mediapool.bg carries a story about the United States’ plans to withdraw some troops from NATO’s Eastern Flank. There are currently no indications that the American military presence in Bulgaria will be reduced. Significant changes will take place in Romania, where the US presence is much larger and will be cut in half, leaving about 1,000 troops. In Bulgaria, there are approximately 250 US military personnel, and sources cited by Mediapool do not expect this number to decrease. Under a 2006 agreement between Bulgaria and the United States, up to 2,500 US troops can be stationed in the country, with an additional 2,500 allowed for short-term deployments of up to 90 days. In practice, the US presence in Bulgaria rarely exceeds 450 troops, except during occasional military exercises. Bulgaria and the US jointly use the Novo Selo training range, the Graf Ignatievo and Bezmer air bases, and a logistics centre near Aytos. US forces are also part of a NATO multinational battlegroup stationed in Bulgaria, which numbers around 1,000 troops. Similar NATO battlegroups are deployed in several other Eastern European countries. Italy is the lead nation of the NATO battlegroup in Bulgaria. Following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, plans were made for the battlegroup to potentially expand into a brigade if necessary. As part of this effort, Bulgaria and Italy plan to jointly build and use military facilities in the Kabile military area near Yambol. Bulgaria has significantly delayed renovation and expansion of the barracks there, relying partly on NATO funding.

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Trud daily’s front-page headline says that Trump pushed gold and silver prices up. The threat of the US imposing tariffs on eight European countries has affected the market and the precious metal jumped past USD 4,700 per ounce. Yet, economic experts say, the newspaper adds, financial markets are reacting not so much to the threat of a 10% tariff on the eight European countries targeted by the US but to the breakdown of transatlantic relations as a whole.