site.btaMedia Review: March 25

Sunday’s developments in the government negotiations between GERB-UDF and Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) dominate Monday’s news media. The ensuing articles and comments by analysts were made prior to the news on Monday morning that Prime Minister-designate Mariya Gabriel withdraws from the government-forming procedure.

POLITICS

24 Chasa’s front-page story reads that Gabriel says she will withdraw her candidacy for prime minister and there will be no negotiations with CC-DB on the next government-forming mandate, while outgoing Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov of CC-DB says perhaps they can still reach an agreement and early elections can be avoided. It is GERB leader Boyko Borissov and President Rumen Radev who are setting the rules, the article reads. 

Commenting on these developments for 24 Chasa, sociologists Stoycho Stoychev said that in this situation, nothing is final and one can hardly make a firm forecast. “I have been saying since March 6 [when Denkov tendered the Government’s resignation] that the ruling majority has been broken and cannot produce a stable coalition and any kind of cabinet and governance,” Stoychev told the daily. However, it is possible that Continue the Change accept GERB’s demands and withdraw their own in an attempt to save the current National Assembly. There is a chance for an agreement to be reached within the second cabinet-forming mandate but it is very small compared to that within the first mandate. The roadmap to the early elections will become clear once Gabriel withdraws her proposed government lineup; then the question will be not whether there will be snap elections but when those elections will take place: together with the European Parliament elections or on another date, the sociologist argues.

Telegraf writes in an inside-page story that the Cabinet has collapsed and snap elections are coming. 

Trud’s front-page article reads that Gabriel has said early elections will be held, but Borrisov is yet to say that.

Commenting on the topic for Trud, political analyst and PR Pepi Dimitrova said that Bulgaria finds itself in a situation of complete helplessness of the key political figures, and that stage has been reached after years of leadership deficit. In this situation, neither the politicians nor the citizens can make a beneficial move, because even if snap elections are held, afterwards the people on the negotiating table will be the same. Still, the hope remains that the situation will be resolved in an acceptable manner. “Nothing is over until it is over,” Dimitrova concluded.

Duma quotes BSP for Bulgaria Deputy Floor Leader Ivan Chenchev as commenting that GERB-UDF and CC-DB have never wanted to lead constructive negotiations; they have constantly been raising condition after condition, each more non-implementable than the last, so as to sabotage the talks. Perhaps their goal is to make people repulsed by politics, he noted. Chenchev was adamant that BSP for Bulgaria will not participate in ruling coalitions and will not support any government whatsoever in the current National Assembly. “This Parliament has run its course. As we told the President, there is no point in him handing BSP for Bulgaria the third [cabinet-forming] mandate. The solution lies in elections followed by the formation of a regular government with a majority united by several undisputed national priorities,” the Socialist argued.

Mediapool.bg quotes Socialist MP Georgi Svilenski as saying that BSP for Bulgaria will not try to form a government on the third cabinet-forming mandate should the President hand it to them. The mandates of GERB-UDF and CC-DB are doomed to fail, he argued. In the next parliament, the Socialists will work with those who wish to solve Bulgaria’s problems, he said but refused to name specific parties. Let it first become clear who will make it into the next National Assembly, he said. The election campaign of every party should be focused not on who coalitions will be formed with but on what the party will fight for, he specified.

Capital.bg writes that if Gabriel withdraws her proposed government lineup, the President will be able to continue the constitutional procedure of handing a cabinet-forming mandate on the second biggest parliamentary group in Parliament, CC-DB. Which means that Bulgaria is headed towards early elections. It is hard to say when these would be held, but there are indications that GERB does not want the snap elections and the European Parliament elections to be held simultaneously (probably on June 9). However, having to vote twice within several weeks would be extremely demotivating for voters. 

Bulgarian National Radio has an interview with political expert Petar Cholakov, who comments that the realistic option is for GERB to negotiate with CC-DB after snap elections are held, because then Continue the Change will have much fewer MPs and, thus, it will be much easier for Borissov and Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) co-leader Delyan Peevski to pressure them. Cholakov further said that he expected a government to be formed on the first mandate, but apparently some interests by both sides are taking precedence. Everything might change if a new political formation gets on the stage, he noted. “The voters are completely disgusted by the circus we have been watching for two months now, so the big opportunity is now,” he argued.

On Nova TV’s morning show, political experts Elena Darieva and Tsvetanka Andreeva commented on whose turn it is to make a move in the negotiations on a new government. According to them, the sharp political tone motivates the parties’ firm supporters. “After such a crisis, the coalitions might get reformatted,” Andreeva argued. Darieva noted that both sides might be keeping their door open to further negotiations, but Bulgarians do not like sitting in a draft. Political experts Daniel Smilov and Hristo Panchougov as well as former energy minister Miroslav Sevlievski commented whether Bulgaria is headed towards a new government or new elections. According to Smilov, GERB-UDF’s cabinet-forming mandate might be fulfilled under certain conditions; society does not want new elections. Panchougov believes that the power holders do not trust each other, and society does not trust them; the politicians themselves do not want snap elections. Sevlievski said that if there is someone to blame for the lack of a government, that is Borissov and Peevski; if GERB’s leader has been absent from the negotiations, one cannot expect these to be successful. 

Bulgarian National Television’s morning show is dedicated to the possibility of snap elections. According to sociologist Vassil Tonchev, there is a 10% to 20% possibility of GERB and CC-DB reaching an agreement. Political expert Stoycho Stoychev said that the current situation has devastated people’s trust in the two political forces, and it is too late for the formations to go back to how things were before; the much more honourable option is for them to run in elections and try to clean up their image. Journalist Vesselin Stoynev commented that Denkov’s proposal made to Gabriel on Sunday to keep the government as it is, was an invitation to salvage the situation in the last minute.

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On bTV’s morning show, diplomat and former foreign minister Nadezhda Neynsky commented on the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. She expects the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin to harden with the argument that the State has to protect its citizens. “It is hard to make analyses immediately after such a tragedy. However, one cannot but notice that a State at war that is government by the special services has failed to register the organization of this terrorist act. These are not people who just bought weapons from somewhere and went to shoot in all directions,” she clarified. According to Neynsky, the western embassies had information about a terror attack being in the works in Moscow and had warned their citizens, but Putin has clearly neglected those warnings. 

The same topic was discussed on Nova TV’s morning show by international security and geopolitics expert Rumen Kanchev and journalists Nikolay Krastev and Chavdar Stefanov. Stefanov commented that Russia’s version is that Ukraine is to blame for the attack, and Ukraine is backed by the United States. There is some credibility in the other versions as well, but there are many contradictions involved in these events and “something does not add up”. Kanchev said he accepts that the ISIL are to blame, and he refused to discuss who is responsible for the attack and why it was carried out; the strategic plans of the conflict in Ukraine are far more important. Krastev commented that the fact that Moscow is currently investigating mostly the Ukrainian version of the attack as the most probable, is their problem; the reality is different.

Discussing the terrorist act, journalist Valeri Todorov said on Bulgarian National Television’s morning show that Russia focuses its attention on a possible Ukrainian involvement, but there are many things that cause confusion. The danger was underestimated. The security guards at the concert hall did not have weapons, so they could hardly have done something more, Torodor argued. Prof Vladimir Choukov, an expert in Arabian studies, commented that those wwho planned the terrorist attack are religious fanatics. The attack was carried out on a Friday, which is a day for prayer; the concert hall is named after Muslim Magomayev, who bears the name of Islam; and a rock concert was to be held at the hall, the expert noted. 

ECONOMY

24 Chasa has an interview with Eurostat Director General Mariana Kotzeva, who says Bulgaria is not at the EU’s bottom in all statistics. This country is at the top of the ranking for high number of female managers and is in second place for lowest public government debt.

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Telegraf has an interview with former labour and social policy minister Hristina Hristova (2003-2005), who talks about the problems in Bulgaria’s pension system. 

The daily also has an interview with macroeconomist Georgi Ganev, who forecasts that Bulgaria will introduce the euro in July 2025. 

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24 Chasa reports that the price of some metals has reach the record-high of three years ago, with copper becoming as precious as gold. Since copper is used in 90% of home appliances, Bulgarian companies are making profits of over BGN 700 million.

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Telegraf writes on its front page that for Easter and the Feast Day of St George in early May, most of the lamb meat on the Bulgarian market will not be local but imported from North Macedonia.

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Dnevnik.bg reports that many foreign tourists may wish to holiday in Bulgaria but will not be able to do so due to the insufficient number of seats available on charter flights. In the last years, the traditional problems of Bulgarian tourism (quality of services, construction works, hygiene) were pushed to the back by a common problem: the anti-pandemic measures and limitations, followed by the war in Ukraine and tourists’ safety concern; the high inflation rate has further aggravated things. This summer, Bulgaria has the chance to restore its sea tourism to the pre-pandemic levels, as evidenced by the early bookings from key markets. However, a new problem has arisen: lack of seats, as tour operators call it. While in the last months of 2023 the number of bookings by foreign tourists from some markets was steadily growing, in early 2024 that number nearly reached zero not because there are no vacancies at hotels but because there are no seats left in charter flights. Tour operators say that due to personnel shortage, some airlines have removed seats so that their available staff would correspond to the number of passengers. Seats are also redirected to destinations with a longer summer season, such as Turkiye and Greece. In sum, some hotel owners at the Bulgarian coast will have a strong summer season, others will not, but the average result will not be a good season.