site.btaIncreasing Ukraine Imports Negatively Impact Bulgarian Market, EC Report Says

The European Commission presented Thursday a short-term market outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2023. The report is driven by the negative impacts of Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, notably on energy, fertilizer and feed prices, and by the unfolding food price inflation impacting EU consumer decisions, with purchasing power decreasing globally due to the economic slowdown.

The sharply increasing imports from Ukraine created oversupply, downward pressure on prices and saturated logistical chains in Bulgaria, Romania and Poland, while it helped other countries compensate production shortages due to hot and dry weather conditions in summer, the document reads. Imports of cereals, oilseeds, sugar, and certain animal products from Ukraine to the EU increased substantially in 2022. The increase was particularly sharp for poultry meat and eggs, which continued to be high also in early 2023.

EU exports of cereals are likely to be 7.7% lower than last year, mainly due to reduced maize exports linked to a lower availability, the short-term market outlook indicates. On the other hand, EU wheat exports could grow by 9.4%, as well as exports of other small cereals. In contrast, EU cereal imports are expected to increase by 57%, driven by increasing shipments from Ukraine. EU cereal use for feed is expected to be 2.9% lower compared to previous marketing year, since the EU animal production is reduced more than previously forecast. As a result, the cereal ending stocks are expected to increase by 2.4%.

EU exports of live animals increased by 1.2% in 2022, despite a difficult first half of the year and high domestic prices. Romania is expected to further redirect a part of its live animals to Greece and Bulgaria due to the very remunerating prices instead of exporting them to non-EU countries. Overall, EU exports of live animals are set to decline by 3.5% in 2023 due to high domestic prices and the continuing difficult transport situation through the Black Sea.