site.btaFive Formations Sure to Enter Next Parliament, Shows Gallup Poll

If elections were held today, five formations would win MP seats: Progressive Bulgaria, GERB-UDF, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), and Vazrazhdane, shows the latest nationally representative poll by the Gallup International Balkan polling agency. During the first third of the election campaign, there has been no significant increase in the stated intention to vote in the April 19 early parliamentary elections: nearly 53% of respondents said they would vote, compared to 51% recorded in the previous, pre-election campaign survey. 

The survey was conducted among 820 adult Bulgarians between March 20 and March 30 using the standardized face-to-face personal interview method with data recording via tablets. It is part of Gallup's independent research programme and was funded with its own resources.

The survey shows that if elections were held today, Progressive Bulgaria would win with the support of 27.7% of those who intend to vote, compared to 29.8% recorded in the February survey. The small decrease does not yet give grounds to believe that a stable downward trend is present, the pollsters commented. 

The second-largest political force, with 22.8% of those who have decided whom to vote for, would be GERB-UDF, which is showing signs of some pre-election mobilization.

In third place would be CC-DB with 10.6% of the votes. According to Gallup International Balkan, the party continues to suffer electoral damage from the Petrohan scandal but retains the potential to mobilize a protest vote, which could boost its current result.

In fourth place would be the MRF with 10.4%. In a real election scenario, this party traditionally demonstrates the capacity for electoral mobilization, which could build upon this level of support, the pollsters noted.

The fifth certain participant in the next National Assembly is Vazrazhdane with 6.3% of the votes, which is a slight increase in support compared to the previous survey. According to the polling agency, this is primarily due to their clearer positioning relative to Progressive Bulgaria, which motivates their core electorate.

Several parties are below the 4% electoral threshold and have varying degrees of probability of entering Parliament. BSP - United Left registered 2.9% support, but with a suitable campaign and successful differentiation from Progressive Bulgaria, there is an electoral reserve to overcome the electoral threshold. The Siyanie (Radiance) coalition is gaining visibility on the electoral landscape with 2.9%. According to the survey data, There Is Such a People has 2.8% support, Morality, Unity, Honour 2.7%, Velichie 1.8%, Alliance for Rights and Freedoms 0.9%, and Blue Bulgaria 0.9%.