site.btaWinner in Dutch Vote Clear, but Coalition Government Could Form Without Him

Dutch voters head to the polls on October 29 in early parliamentary elections after the previous coalition government, headed by independent Prime Minister Dick Schoof, collapsed in June. The far-right Freedom Party (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, is expected to remain the country’s largest party in Parliament. Yet shifting support could result in a moderate coalition returning to power.

Unlike Bulgaria, there is no reflection day, or a ban on campaigning on the day before the elections in the Netherlands. On the contrary, the final televised debate, which could prove decisive for undecided voters is on Tuesday night. Fifteen parties will participate in the debate: there are 15 in the current parliament, and according to opinion polls, there will be 15 in the new one as well.

The parties

27 parties run in the elections. The entire political spectrum is represented. There are even some specific formations, two parties are focused on animals: Party for the Animals and Peace for Animals; the Pirate Party; 50Plus, which protects the interests of pensioners; Denk, which focuses on minority interests; the Libertarian Party; the anti-capitalist Bij1; and the Frisian National Party.

The issues that concern voters

According to opinion polls, the main topics in the campaign and voter interests are concentrated on: migration and asylum, the disagreements that led to the fall of the previous government and resulted in the early elections; security in Europe/defence and housing policy (shortage of adequate housing). These were the three main topics of Monday night's televised debate. Other topics which emerged during the campaign included healthcare, inflation and purchasing power, energy costs and even road tolls. Digitalization/online security was also a topic, but not a leading one. Three days before the parliamentary elections, tens of thousands of people took to the streets in The Hague, urging the prioritizing of climate action.

How voters decide

According to analysts, television debates have a serious impact on voters' decisions. A party leader statement on a news programme shifted rankings in one of the latest opinion polls. 

The Dutch generally rely on web-based tools like Kieskompas and StemWijzer, similar to the one Bulgarian voters are acquainted with, Glasovoditel, to "check" where their attitudes lie on the political spectrum, choosing to mark a series of statements prepared after careful analysis of party programs. Social networks, including TikTok, are important, and recently podcasts have also proved popular with politicians.

These elections revealed a problem with artificial intelligence. It turned out that many people are consulting popular chatbots, and according to analysts, they are not a reliable source. The issue even prompted an official warning from the Dutch Data Protection Authority.

Do the Dutch trust their politicians?

A quarter of Dutch citizens say they do not feel represented by any political party, according to a survey by Kieskompas (Election Compass) platform and the Algemeen Nederlands Persbureau BV (ANP) news agency.

Another study, published earlier in October by the Netherlands Institute for Social Research, found that most Dutch citizens feel disappointed and powerless when it comes to politics. Some 59% believe the country is heading in the wrong direction and that politicians are not offering real solutions. The poll found that 60% of respondents gave politicians in The Hague a failing grade.

In the run-up to the parliamentary elections, entrepreneurs are particularly concerned about political instability. Six in ten business owners (60%) do not believe that political parties will be able to form a stable government after the upcoming elections, according to the latest Ipsos I&O poll. Entrepreneurs are also pessimistic about whether national politics will function any better after the elections than it did last year: nearly half (48%) don’t think it will.

What do young people think?

Young people in the Netherlands feel ignored and unheard by politicians, according to an Ipsos I&O poll. More than four in ten (43%) say politicians behave poorly. Young respondents feel that politicians focus more on their own interests than on solving the country’s problems. Very few candidates under 30 have a realistic chance of winning a seat in the new Dutch parliament.

When it comes to age demographics, it is worth noting that the share of voters over 65 in the Netherlands is higher than ever. Over 13 million people are eligible to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections, and nearly 30% of them are over 65, compared to just 18% thirty years ago.

The elections and the Bulgarian community

Whether the Netherlands ends up with a right-wing or centre-left government after the snap parliamentary elections on October 29 makes little difference for Bulgarian labour migrants, says Elitsa Yordanova, who has lived and worked in the country for 25 years. She is the founder of the First Bulgarian School “ABV” in Amsterdam and currently works as a translator and adviser for Bulgarian migrant workers in the municipalities of Amsterdam and Zaanstad.

According to her, “All parties’ platforms include restrictions on the number of migrant workers allowed into the country, stricter measures against exploitation and abuse, as well as incentives to attract more highly skilled workers.”

Ivan Uzunov, founder of the volunteer cultural organization Bulgarian Hub Eindhoven, fears that if a far-right government is formed after the elections, “it will become much harder to access local and cultural funding from municipalities and associations in the region”.

The forecasts

Polls indicate that 15 parties are expected to make it into the new parliament: the Party for Freedom (PVV), GroenLinks [Green Left] - Labour Party (GL-PvdA), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66), the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), JA21, the Party for the Animals, the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), the Socialist Party (SP), Forum for Democracy (FVD), Denk, Volt Netherlands, the Reformed Political Party (SGP), the Christian Union (CU), and 50Plus.

The previous parliament also had 15 parties, but with one key difference: the New Social Contract (NSC), which won 20 seats in 2023, is not expected to retain any this time. Meanwhile, 50Plus, the party representing senior citizens, is expected to return to parliament.

Voter turnout

Dutch voter turnout in parliamentary elections has traditionally been high. Over the past 23 years, it has never dropped below 74%. Turnout was 78.2% in the November 2023 elections and 81.9% in 2017. For comparison, turnout in last year’s European Parliament elections was just 46.18%.

Winners and losers

Every opinion poll suggests that Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom will once again emerge as the winner. However, forecasts predict that the party may win between five and eleven fewer seats than the 37 it secured in the previous 150-seat parliament.

At that time, the far-right party formed a government, but Wilders withdrew his ministers in early June after his proposal to tighten asylum laws failed to gain support from the other three coalition partners.

October 24 polls show that four parties, GroenLinks–Labour, D66, the Christian Democratic Appeal, and the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, could form a government without Wilders. During the campaign, both Frans Timmermans (GroenLinks–Labour) and Henri Bontenbal (CDA) said they were ready to take the prime minister’s post.

What will the new Dutch government look like and will it steer the country in a new direction after a period of far-right rule remains to be seen.

The Dutch tradition of coalition governments

One thing is certain: the new Dutch government will once again be a coalition. The Netherlands has had coalition governments for more than a century, according to some sources as many as 135 years.

A majority in the House of Representatives requires 76 of the 150 seats, but no single party has won an outright majority since 1917, when the current system of proportional representation with party lists was introduced.

What happens next?

After the polls close at 9 p.m. (10 p.m. Bulgarian time), the first exit polls will be released, followed by statements from party leaders outlining possible government coalitions.

But officially, coalition formation in the Netherlands is a lengthy process. Parliament first appoints an informateur to explore potential alliances, followed by a formateur who conducts official negotiations leading to a coalition agreement.

During the campaign, many parties said they would not join a coalition with Wilders. Whether a “cordon sanitaire” will actually form around him, whether a centrist government will emerge, and which smaller parties might take part remains to be seen.

Forming the previous government in 2024, led by Dick Schoof, took eight months. It lasted only eleven. In 2017, it took Mark Rutte 208 days to form his cabinet.