site.btaEP Rapporteur on Serbia Tonino Picula: No Conditions for Free Elections, Social Polarization Is the Alternative

Interviewed by BTA, the European Parliament's rapporteur on Serbia, Croatian MEP Tonino Picula, said the only way for Serbia to emerge from its deepening crisis is to hold elections, but conditions for free and fair polls are currently lacking, and the alternative is further social polarization.

His remarks come amid 10 months of mass protests following the collapse of a recently renovated train station canopy in Novi Sad, which killed 16 people. Protesters blame corruption and negligence for the tragedy, and their demands for a transparent investigation and for those responsible to face criminal liability have escalated into calls for early elections.

"Serbia cannot resolve this situation primarily because its democratic institutions are seriously compromised. In democratic countries, internal conflicts are addressed through elections, and the winner assumes responsibility for improving the situation. This does not happen in Serbia, even though the country has held elections almost every year and a half in the past five to six years," Picula said.

He noted that the student protests are unusual, highly fluid, and they have not been eliminated in the usual ways the regime neutralizes political opponents - through bribery or by ignoring them. "Serbia has been in a state of undeclared emergency for almost a year now," he added.

Picula also stressed that while the European Parliament has been a consistent critic of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party government, other EU institutions, notably the European Commission, have "viewed the Vucic regime rather favourably, ignoring developments in Serbia for a long time and giving relatively positive assessments, even proposing the opening of negotiating chapters".

The European Commission has long tried to frame the issue of negotiations with Serbia as a legal and technical matter rather than a political one, Picula noted. However, developments over the past six months appear to have led to some shift in attitudes towards Vucic's Serbia, he said.

According to him, Serbia has the lowest level of alignment with the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy, and it is the only European country, alongside Turkiye and Belarus, that has not imposed sanctions on Russia following its aggression against Ukraine. "It is absurd for us to adopt a 19th package of sanctions against the regime of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, while not sanctioning the leader of a candidate country who publicly declares he will never impose sanctions on Russia."

"President Vucic, who is asked about everything in Serbia, has no intention of joining the EU. What he is interested in are financial resources and various forms of support for Serbia, which would likely collapse economically without the EU and trade with the EU," Picula said, noting that the EU is Serbia's largest investor and donor.

In his view, elections would be the most viable path out of Serbia's deep crisis and sharp polarization. But at present, even the holding of elections in Serbia is a polarizing issue.

"It seems to me that [the opposition] is looking for another solution, namely, a technical expert government. This solution was tested successfully in North Macedonia, thanks to the intervention of the European Parliament," Picula said, adding that such a technical government would need to last at least nine months to create the conditions for free and fair elections, because no such conditions exist at the moment.

According to him, the alternative to elections is further social polarization and conflicts, "which may suit part of the Serbian regime's intentions to try to crush resistance through a programmed and growing use of force".

Picula also commented on calls by part of the Serbian opposition for the EU to impose sanctions on the Serbian President, as well as on the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Serbian Parliament.

"The European Parliament has not taken a position on this issue yet, but it would likely support a tougher policy towards the Serbian government, the President and all those contributing to the escalation of violence and assaults on citizens. The European Commission holds a different view," Picula said. "So there is still no consideration within the Commission, and probably not within the European External Action Service either, that Vucic should be sent the only message he understands, namely, a cut-off of financial resources."

According to the European Parliament's rapporteur, Serbia's still incomplete transition to a functioning democracy remains a problem, while its unresolved issues also have a regional dimension. "What Serbia fails to resolve at home, it exports as problems to neighbouring countries, where the Serbian Orthodox Church has a strong influence and where a segment of the Serbian population acts politically through its parties in those countries. We are talking first and foremost about Bosnia and Herzegovina, and of course Montenegro and Northern Kosovo," Picula said.

Twenty-one years ago, on the eve of the EU's major enlargement, the [EU-Western Balkans] Thessaloniki Summit clearly stated that the Western Balkan countries have a European future. Since then, only Croatia has joined the EU. All the others have gone through turbulence - progress and stagnation - but none has moved closer to full membership, Picula recalled. "This transition continues today. And if it has lasted more than 20 years, it is hard to say that it will end tomorrow. I think the claims that some of these countries will join the EU before the end of the European Parliament's and the Commission's term sound overly optimistic, and that is due to the situation the EU itself faces, since it too must be prepared to admit new member states."

According to the rapporteur, there is significant scepticism among influential EU Member States, which are currently focused primarily on consolidating the existing Union. Only after that will they be able to consider expansion with new members.

"Twenty years ago, there were ten candidate countries that later joined; today, there are ten candidates again. Ten candidate countries are knocking on the EU's door: the Western Balkan countries, Moldova and Ukraine, as well as Turkiye as a special case. The real question is: the waiting room is full, but when will it start to empty? That is uncertain," Picula said.