site.btaTrend Exit Poll Shows Shift in University-Educated Vote between Presidential Election Rounds

Support among voters with higher education shifted between the two rounds of Bulgaria's presidential election, with Iliana Iotova overtaking Andrey Gurov in this demographic group in the runoff, according to polling agency Trend.

While Gurov led among university-educated voters in the first round with 39%, compared with 31.7% for Iotova, the balance reversed in the runoff, with Iotova receiving 50.2% against 46% for Gurov, Trend's exit poll data showed.

The agency said that although the main socio-demographic divisions remained largely unchanged, there were significant shifts in the voter profiles of the presidential candidate pairs of Iliana Iotova and Kiril Valchev, and Andrey Gurov and Georgi Kandev.

The exit poll, commissioned by Nova Broadcasting Group and Euronews, also revealed changes in voting patterns in Sofia, while differences between the candidates' supporters in terms of age, place of residence and previous political preferences remained evident.

Although Gurov maintained a substantial lead in the capital, the gap between the two candidates narrowed from 29.3 percentage points in the first round to 21.9 percentage points in the second. At the same time, the proportion of Sofia residents among Gurov's voters declined from 31.8% to 27.4%, Trend data showed.

Gurov received the support of 53.4% of voters aged 18 to 29, compared with 38.9% for Iotova. Among voters aged 30 to 39, Gurov secured 49.8%, against 43.4% for Iotova.

Iotova received 60.8% of the vote among people aged 60 to 69 and 61.9% among those aged over 70.

Overall, 35.4% of Iotova's voters were aged over 60, compared with 25.8% of Gurov's electorate. Conversely, voters under 40 accounted for 34.6% of Gurov's supporters, against 22.5% of Iotova's.

Gurov held a substantial lead in Sofia, receiving 59.3% of the vote against 37.4% for Iotova.

In regional capitals, Iotova led with 54.6%, compared with 40.5% for Gurov. Her largest lead was in smaller towns, where she received 61.8% against 33.5%. She also led in villages, with 55.1% compared with 36.1% for Gurov.

Nearly half of Iotova's voters (46.5%) lived in regional capitals, while another 39.8% lived in smaller towns and villages. Among Gurov's voters, 27.4% lived in Sofia, compared with 13.7% of Iotova's electorate.

Among voters with higher education, Iotova received 50.2%, against 46% for Gurov. Among those with secondary education, she led with 56%, compared with 37.2%.

According to the data, 58.1% of Gurov's voters had higher or post-secondary non-tertiary education, compared with 50.6% of Iotova's supporters.

Iotova attracted more than 70% of voters who had supported Kostadin Kostadinov and Ivelin Mihaylov in the first round a week earlier. However, Trend noted that only slightly more than half of Kostadinov's first-round voters participated in the runoff.

Among voters who had supported Radostin Vasilev in the first round, 45.6% backed Gurov and 38.9% supported Iotova.

The data also showed that 76.9% of those who voted for GERB-UDF in the April parliamentary elections supported Gurov in the runoff, as did slightly more than two-thirds of Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) voters.

Of all those who voted for Gurov, nearly one-fifth (19.8%) had supported GERB-UDF in April, while another 6.4% had voted for MRF.

Looking at the composition of the two electorates, 57% of Iotova's voters had supported Progressive Bulgaria in April, while 8.8% had voted for Vazrazhdane and 7.3% for BSP-United Left.

According to Trend, these figures point to different political configurations behind the two candidates, with Iotova's support more heavily concentrated among Progressive Bulgaria voters and Gurov drawing support from a more diverse range of political parties.

More than half of voters had made up their minds about the runoff before the election campaign began.

A total of 52.3% said they had decided whom to support before the start of the campaign, 18.6% during the campaign and 18% between the two rounds. Another 8.4% made their choice on election day itself.

Among Iotova's voters, 54.6% had decided before the campaign, compared with 52.8% of Gurov's supporters.

A further 18.8% of Iotova's voters and 15.9% of Gurov's voters made their decision between the two rounds, according to Trend's exit poll.