site.btaStudy Suggests Turkiye Could Split in Two over Millions of Years, No Immediate Risk of Major Earthquake

Turkiye could eventually be split into two due to seismic activity, according to findings from a three-year study led by Prof. Senol Hakan Kutoglu of Bulent Ecevit University in Zonguldak, as cited by the online outlet Haberler.

Radar-based data show that ground movement is occurring in different directions across the country, extending from Karadeniz Eregli on the Black Sea coast through the capital Ankara to Antalya. Researchers have identified a tension zone between the eastern and western parts of the Anatolian plateau, making it possible that, over millions of years, the landmass could split along this line.

According to Kutoglu, the analysis indicates that the eastern part of Ankara is moving northward, while the western part is shifting eastward, creating a transitional "zero line" that also functions as a tension zone. Both minor and major earthquakes have occurred along this line over time.

He explained that if the buildup of tension continues over geological timescales, eastern and western Turkiye could eventually separate, drift apart and break away from one another.

This is the first time such findings have been presented, with the researcher suggesting that the S-shaped tension line may have formed over a period of approximately 4.5 million years.

Scientists also note that, alongside a potential split, there could be a reverse process in which the fault between the eastern and northern parts of the Anatolian plateau closes, effectively bringing the landmasses back together.

Kutoglu warned that the tension line could pose a future risk, as small earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 4 have been recorded along it. The accumulation of energy over millions of years could eventually lead to ruptures along longer fault lines.

However, he stressed that there is no immediate danger of a major earthquake in the near future.