site.btaMedia Review: September 16

RISING FUEL PRICES

Fuel prices continue to rise, with diesel becoming EUR 0.03 cents more expensive and petrol increasing by EUR. 0.01 cent as of Wednesday morning, Dimitar Hadzhidimitrov, deputy chairman of the Association of Bulgarian Fuel Traders, Producers, Importers and Transporters, said on bTV.

According to him, this will not be the last increase this week.  “Diesel and petrol prices are expected to rise by at least EUR 0.02 that much by the end of the week,” he estimated. Hadzhidimitrov said the average price of diesel has already reached around EUR 1.95 per litre, while petrol is close to EUR 1.70.

He said the price of crude oil is one of the factors driving the increase. on Wednesday morning, Brent crude briefly rose above EUR 108 a barrel before falling back to around EUR 107.90.

“That is one of the reasons why fuel prices are generally higher. The price of diesel has never reached this level in our country. It is close to EUR 2 per litre — we have never seen prices this high,” he said.

However, he added that there are several factors behind the increase, including a global shortage of diesel, reduced production capacity and the closure of refineries across Europe.

“There are many different factors at play. First and foremost, there is a global shortage of diesel,” Hadzhidimitrov said.

He also pointed to ongoing armed conflicts as another factor driving prices higher. Meanwhile, transportation costs and insurance premiums have increased fivefold, he said.

 “If insurance on a shipment was around 1.5% seven or eight months ago, it has now reached 6% of the value of the cargo. In addition, insurance costs for ships are three to four times higher,” he explained.

Hadzhidimitrov also said that China has begun increasing its oil purchases ahead of the winter season, putting additional pressure on the market. He also pointed to the damage sustained by Russian refineries as another contributing factor.

According to him, diesel prices are rising faster than petrol prices precisely because of the fuel shortage.

“The refining margin for diesel has increased significantly because during the summer the main demand is for petrol and kerosene. Refineries do not produce as much diesel at this time of year. Instead, they rely primarily on their existing stocks so that, when demand for diesel picks up in September, they can bring those supplies to the market,” Hadzhidimitrov noted.

He predicted that the price of diesel in Bulgaria will soon reach around EUR 2 per litre, although he does not expect that threshold to be exceeded by the end of September.

“We will reach that level soon, but I doubt we will go above it, at least not by the end of the month,” the expert said.

He added that if high prices persist, they will lead to additional inflation.

ANALYSTS SAY PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS LACKLUSTRE

“I don’t think there is any chance of a president being elected in the first round,” political scientist Atanas Radev, chairman of the National Youth Forum, said on Bulgarian National Radio.

According to him, the campaign itself is very lacklustre. “It is important to see what kind of campaign actually develops and what messages the candidates will send to people, because this will show whether they will manage to mobilize their core supporters and reach beyond their political periphery. This will determine who the next president will be.”

“There are many people fighting for this country, but few actually working for it,” Radev said on the morning political panel of the national radio.

According to him, one of the key things about the presidency is that the institution embodies the idea that it represents the unity of the nation. However, the question is through what means, and how, the president will achieve this national unity, he added.

“At the moment, at the beginning of the election campaign, we hear people talking about unity, but somehow they are portraying imaginary enemies whom we are supposed to fight. In my view, this more or less does not correspond to reality or to what is actually happening in the country.”

According to him, the context in which the next president will operate must also be taken into account. In his words, “the presidency does not have much room to maneuver” when there is a clear and stable majority and a strong prime minister.

The president can manage a crisis, but how effectively depends on his understanding of the situation, the political scientist noted. He also recalled that the constitutional amendments adopted in 2023 require the president to consult with political parties when forming a caretaker government.

“At a certain point, when the president and the presidency become the center of political power, it disrupts Bulgaria’s political model. Mr [Rumen] Radev very much wanted to become that centre of power, and at the moment, he is the centre of power. And somehow, the discussion about constitutional changes that he advocated for while he was president, particularly strengthening the powers of the presidency, is no longer on the agenda.”

According to Radev, it is important to pay close attention to the way the presidency communicates and the messages it sends. Speaking about the presidency’s position on peace, he said that none of the other European countries are warmongers and that peace is important to all of them. The real question, however, is at what cost peace can be achieved and how it can be secured, Atanas Radev commented.

He also argued that support from political parties is crucial, as it can determine whether candidates make it through to the runoff. In his view, the parties have largely stepped back from supporting Iotova and Gurov. The campaign, he said, is being driven primarily by the candidates themselves, which makes things more difficult for the candidates.

“The presidency has the potential to become a platform for shaping the national conversation around Bulgaria’s long-term strategic vision,” Radev said. He emphasized that in recent years there has been a lack of meaningful strategic debate about Bulgaria’s vision for 2050 - how the country wants to position itself internationally and what it wants to achieve as a nation.

EX-PRIME MINISTER SAYS GOVERNANCE PROGRAMME LACKS NATIONAL STRATEGY

In an analysis, published by Mediapool.bg, former prime minister Ivan Kostov criticizes the governance programme for the lack of a national strategy.

Kostov argues that in its main aspects, Bulgaria’s national strategy adopted at the beginning of the transition period has been fulfilled. The reforms made Bulgaria a member of NATO, the European Union, the Schengen Area, and the euro area. The country is now part of the political, economic, and defence community of developed European states.

This has exhausted the strategic objectives that, for more than three decades, defined Bulgaria’s direction. An inevitable question therefore arises: what is the next national strategy?

The strategy should be aimed at achieving a desired future for the country, rather than focusing on an unresolved problem from the past and present such as achieving the rule of law.

Since a national strategy cannot be derived from current political priorities, it should be sought outside them, in the most enduring public interest. Therefore, for those in government,improving well-being should always be the most important objective.

This strategy requires those in government to publicly answer two questions: what do they mean by well-being, and how should its actual improvement be measured? 

However, the 2026–2030 governance programme of the cabinet of Prime Minister Rumen Radev does not meet these requirements.

Instead of objectively assessing the current level of well-being in the country, those in government have replaced such an assessment with accusations against their predecessors. They have not set specific target values for well-being indicators that they intend to achieve through their policies.

These are the two major gaps that explain why the 2026–2030 governance programme does not contain a strategy. And without a strategy there is no criterion for determining the direction. Governance becomes reactive, and its horizon is reduced to the term of office of those in power. They may choose not to invest effort in outcomes 10–20 years into the future and instead pursue only immediate political effects. These effects may temporarily improve current well-being, but at the cost of an unacceptable depletion of human, economic, social, and natural capital.

GOVERNMENT SHOULD WORK TO ELIMINATE WORKING POVERTY

Workers’ incomes should, above all, be high enough to ensure that no one can work full-time and still live in poverty, Atanas Katsarchev, chief economist of the Podkrepa Confederation of Labour, said in a Bulgarian National Radio interview.

 “The simplest measure of whether a society is developing in a healthy way is its demographic trend. But as we can see, that trend is not very positive. Our population has declined by one-third since 1990, which shows that the underlying trends are unfavorable.

The second factor is income inequality, which is clearly evident in the country. There is no indication that income inequality is being effectively addressed through tax and social security policies, despite calls from international financial institutions to reform the tax and social security system,” he said.

According to Katsarchev, Bulgaria cannot build a stable middle class with secure and decent incomes without the right policies. He stressed that this is fundamentally a matter of long-term policy choices.

 “These policies cannot be implemented within a matter of hours. What is needed is a long-term vision for the country’s development, as well as consistency and sustainability in whatever model is adopted. Adjustments will inevitably be necessary in response to the rapidly changing geopolitical and economic environment. But we should nevertheless strive to move the country in the right direction. We cannot achieve that simply by cutting costs.”

He believes the first step should be to introduce a fairer tax system and a more equitable distribution of the social security burden, with wealthier people shouldering a greater share of the cost.

The economist cited data suggesting that one-third of employers make “off-the-books” payments and officially register their employees at the minimum wage.

As for the minimum wage, he said: “If the government does not want to raise the minimum wage to EUR 692, it could compensate for the difference in workers’ net income by introducing a non-taxable threshold for people earning the minimum wage. This would effectively offset the difference in terms of purchasing power.”

“We hope the government will exercise common sense and find a way to prevent the number of working poor from increasing and to compensate for this shortfall,” he said. According to him, the public interest should be the government’s guiding priority.

BRANCH ORGANIZATIONS OPPOSE NEW FOODS TRACEABILITY REGISTER

Sega.bg reports that more than 10 nationally representative organizations from the food and beverage sector have opposed the enormous administrative burden that a new regulation on the establishment, maintenance, and use of an electronic central traceability register for the supply chain of essential food products will create.

According to them, requiring data to be submitted to such a register for every sale, from the producer or importer, through distributors and wholesalers, to retailers, will impose significant financial costs on companies throughout the supply chain. Rather than helping to keep prices down, they argue, the measure will have exactly the opposite effect and lead to higher prices.

The latest amendments to the Competition Protection Act provide for the creation of yet another state register. Under the new requirements, producers, distributors, and traders will be required to submit a huge amount of information on every batch and transaction involving certain essential food products.

The draft regulation governing the operation of the register was published for public consultation by the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Investments.

The authors acknowledge that the new requirements will result in additional administrative burdens. They have estimated, rather roughly, that the measures will impose an additional cost of approximately EUR 60 million per year on businesses.

According to the affected industry sectors, the costs will be much higher and could force some food producers and processors to cease operations. Initially, a list of 23 essential food products has been proposed. This will affect more than 10,000 operators, including agricultural producers, processors, distributors, and wholesalers and retailers, with small and medium-sized farms and businesses making up the majority, business representatives point out.

The industry organizations strongly call for the draft to be fundamentally revised and for the overall concept of the register to be reconsidered, so that disproportionate administrative burdens do not result in economic damage, higher prices, disruption of supply chains, and reduced consumer choice.

Workers’ incomes should, above all, be high enough to ensure that no one can work full-time and still live in poverty, Atanas Katsarchev, chief economist of the Podkrepa Confederation of Labour, said in a Bulgarian National Radio interview.

 “The simplest measure of whether a society is developing in a healthy way is its demographic trend. But as we can see, that trend is not very positive. Our population has declined by one-third since 1990, which shows that the underlying trends are unfavorable.

The second factor is income inequality, which is clearly evident in the country. There is no indication that income inequality is being effectively addressed through tax and social security policies, despite calls from international financial institutions to reform the tax and social security system,” he said.

According to Katsarchev, Bulgaria cannot build a stable middle class with secure and decent incomes without the right policies. He stressed that this is fundamentally a matter of long-term policy choices.

 “These policies cannot be implemented within a matter of hours. What is needed is a long-term vision for the country’s development, as well as consistency and sustainability in whatever model is adopted. Adjustments will inevitably be necessary in response to the rapidly changing geopolitical and economic environment. But we should nevertheless strive to move the country in the right direction. We cannot achieve that simply by cutting costs.”

He believes the first step should be to introduce a fairer tax system and a more equitable distribution of the social security burden, with wealthier people shouldering a greater share of the cost.

The economist cited data suggesting that one-third of employers make “off-the-books” payments and officially register their employees at the minimum wage.

As for the minimum wage, he said: “If the government does not want to raise the minimum wage to EUR 692, it could compensate for the difference in workers’ net income by introducing a non-taxable threshold for people earning the minimum wage. This would effectively offset the difference in terms of purchasing power.”

“We hope the government will exercise common sense and find a way to prevent the number of working poor from increasing and to compensate for this shortfall,” he said. According to him, the public interest should be the government’s guiding priority.

YOUNG BULGARIANS LEAVE HOME LATER THAN EU PEERS ON AVERAGE

Young Bulgarians leave their parents’ homes at an average age of 27.9, almost two years later than the European Union average of 26.3, according to Eurostat data for 2025.

Bulgaria has nevertheless seen an improvement in this regard. In 2023, the figures showed that Bulgarians were leaving their parents’ homes at an average age of 30.

For nearly 20 years, the average age at which young people in the European Union leave the parental home has remained around 26. The latest figures show only a marginal decline compared with previous years.

In 2025, Croatians were the latest to leave home, at an average age of 31.5. They were followed by Greeks and Slovaks, at 30.9. Young people in Spain and Italy also remained in the parental home until an average age of 30.2.

Finns were the earliest to leave home, at 21.4, followed by Danes at 21.8. In Estonia and Lithuania, young people left their parents’ homes at an average age of 22.7.

Eurostat data show that in countries where young people leave the parental home at a later age, the employment rate among people aged 20 to 29 was below the EU average.

Bulgaria is among the countries with relatively low employment among young people under 29. The average employment rate for this age group in the EU is 65%, while in Bulgaria it is around 90%. The lowest employment rate is recorded in Italy, where fewer than half of people under 29 are employed.

ANALYSTS SAY PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS LACKLUSTRE

“I don’t think there is any chance of a president being elected in the first round,” political scientist Atanas Radev, chairman of the National Youth Forum, said on Bulgarian National Radio.

According to him, the campaign itself is very lacklustre. “It is important to see what kind of campaign actually develops and what messages the candidates will send to people, because this will show whether they will manage to mobilize their core supporters and reach beyond their political periphery. This will determine who the next president will be.”

“There are many people fighting for this country, but few actually working for it,” Radev said on the morning political panel of the national radio.

According to him, one of the key things about the presidency is that the institution embodies the idea that it represents the unity of the nation. However, the question is through what means, and how, the president will achieve this national unity, he added.

“At the moment, at the beginning of the election campaign, we hear people talking about unity, but somehow they are portraying imaginary enemies whom we are supposed to fight. In my view, this more or less does not correspond to reality or to what is actually happening in the country.”

According to him, the context in which the next president will operate must also be taken into account. In his words, “the presidency does not have much room to maneuver” when there is a clear and stable majority and a strong prime minister.

The president can manage a crisis, but how effectively depends on his understanding of the situation, the political scientist noted. He also recalled that the constitutional amendments adopted in 2023 require the president to consult with political parties when forming a caretaker government.

“At a certain point, when the president and the presidency become the center of political power, it disrupts Bulgaria’s political model. Mr [Rumen] Radev very much wanted to become that centre of power, and at the moment, he is the centre of power. And somehow, the discussion about constitutional changes that he advocated for while he was president, particularly strengthening the powers of the presidency, is no longer on the agenda.”

According to Radev, it is important to pay close attention to the way the presidency communicates and the messages it sends. Speaking about the presidency’s position on peace, he said that none of the other European countries are warmongers and that peace is important to all of them. The real question, however, is at what cost peace can be achieved and how it can be secured, Atanas Radev commented.

He also argued that support from political parties is crucial, as it can determine whether candidates make it through to the runoff. In his view, the parties have largely stepped back from supporting Iotova and Gurov. The campaign, he said, is being driven primarily by the candidates themselves, which makes things more difficult for the candidates.

“The presidency has the potential to become a platform for shaping the national conversation around Bulgaria’s long-term strategic vision,” Radev said. He emphasized that in recent years there has been a lack of meaningful strategic debate about Bulgaria’s vision for 2050 - how the country wants to position itself internationally and what it wants to achieve as a nation.