site.btaMedia Review: March 26

The efforts to form a government strongly dominate the Tuesday press and electronic media.

Mediapool.bg writes that after GERB failed in their first mandate to form a government, it seems increasingly certain that the country is headed to new early elections and a caretaker government. In the current situation, the most likely scenario is with GERB getting its own government AND a working parliament until possible early elections are held. The analysis is entitled “As Things Go, GERB Will Get Its Own New Cabinet – Caretaker One to Start with”.  

Another analysis in Mediapool looks at the prospects of having 2-in-1 elections for national and European Parliament. It is entitled “Mission (Im)possible: 2-in-1 Elections?” and says that after GERB’s decision to discontinue talks on the formation of a cabinet with Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria, snap elections look inevitable and the key question is whether national elections will be held together with the European elections on June 9. “To have the two elections held simultaneously, the President and parliamentary parties have until April 9 to complete the constitutional procedure. That, however, seems little likely,” the author writes.

On Bulgarian National Radio (BNR), social analyst Dobromir Zhivkov of the Market Links polling agency said that GERB and Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) will likely do one more attempt to renew the talks and form a government. “Each one of the political forces is ready to invest even in its public messages that it is involved in the negotiations in order to minimize its potential responsibility in the event of a possible failure of these talks and a decision to have early elections. I believe the two parties are still willing, contrary to their declarations and the breaking up of talks on several occasions. A third mandate does not seem likely to produce any result,” he said. According to Zhivkov, polls don’t show any shifts in electoral attitudes in recent months and new elections will likely produce a similar Parliament.

On Bulgarian National Television’s morning show, analysts Boyana Bozadzhieva, Krystian Szkwarek, and Elena Darieva commented on political scenarios now that the first government-forming mandate has failed, including the possibility of snap elections. Constitutional law expert Borislav Tsekov commented that it is theoretically possible to hold snap parliamentary elections and European Parliament elections simultaneously, as long as Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria stop these useless - from a constitutional and political point of view - attempts for a cabinet after they wasted all their chances to participate in a government within this National Assembly. If there is common will to hold the two types of elections on the same date, efforts should be made to finalize the procedures by April 8, he specified. However, he believes that the elections will most probably be held on separate dates, as recommended by the EU. It is best for the snap elections to be held two to three weeks after the European Parliament elections, Tsekov said.

Trud publishes an interview with political scientist Maria Mateeva-Kazakova, who comments on the government-forming negotiations between GERB and CC-DB. In Mateeva-Kazakova's words, the society has witnessed negotiations that lacked coalition culture. According to her, absolute majorities are unlikely to be formed, given the fact that there are no ideological parties anymore, as all parties are formed on an anti-elitist basis around leaders with momentary charisma. "The situation is dynamic, and no firm conclusions can be drawn yet. New assemblages are possible, especially given the apparent role of external factors in catalyzing the negotiation process [...] The mandate has yet to [be handed to] the next political forces. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms has been an active player so far, taking the role of mandate-bearer in seemingly heterogeneous coalitions on other occasions", the political scientist noted.

Capital.bg writes about the increasingly likely caretaker government and questions raised after the recent revisions in the Constitution. The story says: “The more likely the early elections become, the more obstacles pop up around the appointment of a possible caretaker cabinet under the new rules adopted by Parliament and enshrined in the Constitution. The amendments, which affected the President's powers to appoint a caretaker cabinet, were not among the initial priorities. CC-DB had prepared texts to amend only the chapter on the judiciary. However, entering into cooperation with GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), whose votes were needed to support the changes, led to the elaboration of a new model for the appointment of a caretaker government. The self-styled ‘Euro-Atlantic parties’ decided to limit the powers of the head of State. The texts, which the MRF pushed for particularly hard in order to demonstrate that they were defending the state from ’Russian influence’, hide a number of problems. From appointing a cabinet entirely linked to GERB and MRF, which supposedly impartially should prepare the early elections, to the President refusing to appoint the government, which in practice will also prevent setting a date for the elections. The hypotheses are various - some of them too extravagant.”

On bTV’s morning show, Veselin Todorov, head of the company that owns the voting machines, said that it would be problematic to hold snap elections only a week after the European Parliament ones on June 9, because there would not be enough time to prepare the machines. He specified that big partial local elections might be held on June 23, because several court cases will be concluded by then contesting the October 2024 election results in some municipalities, including in Sofia. The partial local elections can be early general ones, he added. A public procurement procedure has been announced for the voting machines for June 9 but only for the European elections. In his words, there is no problem in adapting the voting software to 2-in-1 elections.

On bTV’s morning show, Prof Alexander Marinov, former head of the Strategic Council with the President, commented that the appearance of one or several new political formations will significantly change the situation, and that will happen in the coming elections. These new formations that have the chance to make it into the next parliament are yet to reveal themselves but will do so the second snap elections are scheduled. He said he does not see a political project of the President. An interesting new project is the Bulgaria Can civil association set up by Kuzman Iliev in late February. Iliev is an economist and journalist who in the April 2021 elections was a nominee of VMRO from their civil quota.

ECONOMY

Mediapool.bg reports major trends identified in the annual report of the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission. It says that the electricity from coal dropped by almost a half, including by 46% for plants running on lignite coal sicj as the Maritsa Iztok plans and 51% for plants burning brown and black coal. The production of hydro-energy dropped by 21% and the output of the Kozloduy N-plant contracted marginally, by 0.23%. All of the above led to a 22% decrease of the electricity going into the power grid.

All papers report that the Ministry of Finance has launched an information site dedicated to the introduction of the euro in Bulgaria. The website aims to be a reliable source of accurate, timely and up-to-date information, to collect all important news, decisions and events in one place, related to the introduction of the single European currency in Bulgaria. Citizens and businesses will also find short and accurate answers to the most frequently asked questions, Duma writes. 

Mediapool.bg writes that there was a slight decline in housing prices in Sofia and Plovdiv in the last quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter, according to the National Statistical Institute (NSI). In other cities the trend is of a slowdown of the increase in prices. On average across the country, housing prices rose by 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. On an annual basis, however, the appreciation was 10.1%, the NSI data show.

WAR IN UKRAINE

In a BNR interview, French writer and journalist Ariane Chemin, who was until recently Le Monde's special correspondent in Ukraine, said that truth dies first in war. "Apart from the war and the missiles that fall, just as scary is the war of misinformation that runs in parallel". Asked whether journalism stands a chance against propaganda, Chemin said that it is increasingly difficult. "We have to fight back," she insisted. "When I am on the ground and the Ukrainians say to me, 'Go to Paris and tell them we need funds to defend ourselves from the attack' - I don't know what to say to them".

HEALTH CARE

Trud daily frontpages an article, saying that prices of medical examinations without referrals to specialists in various medical institutions have risen by up to 60%. If the patient is seeing a habilitation specialist - a professor or associate professor, the price of the examination ranges between BGN 100 and 150, and if an ultrasound or other device examination is performed, the price often reaches some BGN 250. In March 2023, examinations by habilitation specialists cost between BGN 80 and 100.

On its front page, Duma reports that the Federation of Trade Unions in Health Care at the Confederation of Independent Trade Unions and the Podkrepa Medical Federation will organize protest on Tuesday in front of the building of Sofia Municipality a protest with demands for an increase in the salaries of nurses who work in nurseries and health clinics in educational institutions in Sofia. Sofia has experienced a serious shortage of nurses in nursery groups in recent years.

SOCIETY

Duma quotes an Alfa Research study commissioned by the Bulgarian Donor Forum, which indicates that 52% of Bulgarians made various donations last year.  A slight decrease in donors is noted, but this is expected, since in 2022 there was a significant increase due to the start of the war in Ukraine and severe floods that affected 9 villages of Karlovy Vary.  The data show that only 3% of Bulgarians make regular monthly donations. The sums set aside on an annual basis for donations are kept at identical levels to the previous year - most often in the range of BGN 5 to BGN 50, followed by those over BGN 100. Some 84% of the donations are financial, the rest are in goods and voluntary work. Health and social causes once again continue to strongly dominate all others, followed by education, animal protection, culture.