site.btaMedia Review: May 14

OVERVIEW

All media report on the three Progressive Bulgaria (PB) MPs who resigned from the National Assembly on Thursday. Two of them, Ilko Iliev and Mario Smarkov, will be appointed to the position of regional governors of Varna, on the Black Sea, and Targovishte, North Eastern Bulgaria, respectively.

POLITICS

An article in Mediapool.bg entitled "Radev will have a hard time keeping his own promises in check" reads:

"Anyone who has even skimmed the headlines in recent days has surely read: 'Measures to curb prices: MPs discuss the government's proposals', 'New bills: Fines of up to EUR 100,000 for unjustified price hikes', 'Rumen Radev: Urgent measures are needed to control prices,' and so on. 'The fight against speculation – fishing in troubled waters – is our top priority,' declared the new Chair of the parliamentary Budget Committee, Konstantin Prodanov of Progressive Bulgaria. What is the 'feeling' (another term from the new government's vocabulary regarding prices) that those in power are doing something big, unprecedented, and that any moment now we will see a decrease or at least a stabilization of prices?

"A 'minor' detail. This feeling, however, overlooks the minor detail that if there is a state institution whose mandate is to 'control' inflation in a market economy (to the extent that this is even possible), it is neither the government nor the parliament, but the central bank (in Bulgaria's case, the European Central Bank). Typically, in such situations, the central bank raises interest rates or otherwise restricts lending. The government, of course, can also do something, but it is not state price controls, but rather, for example, controlling the money supply that it itself pours into consumption – through bloated spending on wages and public sector maintenance.

"But since Rumen Radev has no way of raising interest rates in the eurozone and it's unclear to what extent he's willing to cut spending in the 2026 Budget (all measures that would sound incomprehensible to the public), the easiest thing to do is to have his economists come up with – or copy verbatim from German legislation – (according to the admission of Yavor Gechev, the leading agricultural expert at PB) a series of increasingly extravagant measures for direct price control. It sounds bold, innovative. With the caveat that everyone knows it won't work [...] for consumers, because it won't magically fix the prices they perceive as high, but it will work for the government, because it will show that [the government] is taking action and fulfilling its promises. Thus, the only ones to suffer from the whole experiment will be the citizens expecting an illusory control of prices (there are people who postponed their shopping in anticipation of Radev's measures, ed.), but also many businesses for whom legal certainty is of paramount importance."

The article warns that businesses may be unwilling to invest, when watchdogs may fine them by up to EUR 100,000 or by 10% of the revenue for prices that are "unjust", "economically unjustified" or "excessively high".

ECONOMY

Rumen Spetsov, the special commercial administrator for the LUKOIL Group entities in Bulgaria, said in an interview for 24 Chasa that there is no risk of an oil shortage in Bulgaria. Neftochim's supplies are not dependent on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Lukoil Neftochim Burgas sources its oil from the Ceyhan terminal in Turkiye. The problem is the blocked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. There is oil, but transportation costs have increased and account for a very significant portion of the price.

Spetsov reported that the Burgas refinery has enough stockpiles to last at least 90 days. It has been processing different types of crude oil since sanctions were imposed on Russian oil supplies. It has the capacity to blend different types of crude oil, which means that Bulgaria is not dependent on supplies from just one part of the world. The State can source crude oil from Libya, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Norway, however, the price depends on the global market.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

An analysis published by Dnevnik.bg lists several possible risks that may arise from the Rumen Radev government. The text reads:

"1. European administrative lethargy. There is a danger that dialogue with Brussels will be reduced to filling out forms and bureaucratic reporting. Under the guise of maintaining a 'balance' between Washington and Moscow, Bulgaria risks becoming marginalized, voiceless, and ultimately, discredited.

"2. Diplomacy as an appendage. The structure featuring deputy prime ministers without portfolios [...] suggests that the Foreign Ministry may be used as a tool rather than as an institution. Partners in Brussels and in allied capitals will look to Radev and [Deputy Prime Minister Ivo] Hristov for direction, rather than the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. [...]

"3. The new world of business deals. Donald Trump's return legitimizes a form of 'transactional diplomacy' in which foreign policy is a series of deals rather than values. The danger here is that this style could become a convenient excuse for a pivot to the East, disguised as 'pragmatism'. We look to Moscow because economic logic dictates it. This is a serious risk.

"The idea of a pragmatic restoration of economic ties with Russia rests on shaky ground. Moscow today is not a stable partner, but a regime in structural crisis, where assets are redistributed in favor of the loyal, and the war is turning into one man's personal project. Aligning with such an entity is a bet on instability. [...]

"4. Hybrid Vulnerability. A government with an ambiguous foreign policy identity is an ideal target. Bulgaria should not be described by analysts as the weak link in the European information network: a territory where chaos thrives best. Every move on the foreign policy front will be exploited for domestic political radicalization. And although the far-right parties currently appear to be in a state of lethargy, foreign policy could easily become an arena for settling old scores on the domestic political stage. Russia may be desperately searching for its new Szijjarto [Peter Szijjarto, Hungary's former minister of foreign affairs in Viktor Orban's cabinet], who will supply it with information from the EU. Let's hope it doesn't find him in Bulgaria.

"5. 'Hungarianization' in small doses. The risk that Bulgaria will begin to block common European decisions regarding the Russia-Ukraine issue is real, even though Radev is not Orban. Orban, at least at first, was not a run-of-the-mill player. Let's see what Radev will be like. The danger here lies in gradual isolation, which ultimately hits funding and security. [...]

"6. Window-dressing democracy. Concerns that there are ministers who are merely 'figureheads' may be unfounded, but they do exist. [...] For a small country, ambiguity is not a strategy; it is a vacuum that the stronger players are quick to fill.

"If a minister isn't bold, he becomes a mere figurehead. Real politics begins to be forged in 'other rooms', far from the spotlight. A cabinet of civil servants rather than bold individuals is a systemic risk. Perhaps the greatest risk of all [would be], if it turns out that ministers have no say on key issues."

WORLD

Security expert Andrey Mihaylov told Bulgarian National Radio that there are no signs of peace in the Ukraine war, but rather a continuing and escalating conflict. He described the global situation as entering a "high-risk phase" where one crisis triggers another.

He said the world is now in a self-reinforcing cycle of risks and instability, regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends or whether it gets frozen.

Commenting on Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade, Mihaylov noted the absence of heavy military equipment and foreign leaders, interpreting this as a sign of both limited military and diplomatic strength.

He also pointed to Ukraine's growing effectiveness in drone warfare, suggesting it is having a measurable impact on Russian infrastructure and exports, particularly oil products.

According to him, defence industries will continue to grow in importance, while technology transfer is becoming both a military and political tool. He also said Russia is facing internal pressure, diplomatic isolation, and economic weakness, though he warned that its military capacity should not be underestimated.

ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE

An alert submitted by the NGO Institute for Road Safety and published by Trud warns that documents concerning projects for routine road repairs and maintenance worth hundreds of millions of leva have disappeared from the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works website. The documents disappeared only a day after the new government was sworn in, which, according to the NGO, means that this was a "trap" for the new minister, Ivan Shishkov, set by the administration, which is accustomed to operating behind closed doors.

SOCIETY

24 Chasa cites data from Eurostat, according to which only four European Member States had fewer prisoners per capita than Bulgaria in 2024. Those four are Finland with 57 prisoners per 100,000, the Netherlands with 67 [Editor's note: That number is 87, according to the article in 24 Chasa, however, it is 67, according to the data reported on Eurostat's website], Denmark and Germany each with 70. Bulgaria had 85 prisoners per 100,000. On the other end of the scale are Hungary with 193, Poland with 191, and Latvia with 187. The average rate across the EU was 113.

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An op-ed entitled "Gambling is a massive scourge, and it is high time it was banned" by historian and political analyst Kristian Shkvarek was published by Trud. The text reads:

"After I called for a complete ban on gambling in Bulgaria on Monday, a surprising number of people jumped down my throat, arguing that this industry generates significant revenue for the budget, provides jobs, and funds sports.

"Wonderful arguments. Let's apply them practically with a single, albeit extreme, example, making a hypothetical calculation of all the economic benefits we would reap if, starting tomorrow, we allowed the legal sale of heroin and fentanyl in school canteens.

"Instantly, kids would go crazy buying the cool, new products containing fentanyl and heroin. Sales would be huge. The school stores would report record profits, which would also go to each school's budget. There would be money for renovations, for gyms, for classrooms. Money would flow into the budget, and a large, new, profitable industry would be created in the country, employing many people. The direct economic benefits will be clear and undeniable.

"But somehow, we are all aware of how much greater the indirect economic, health, social, and other harms to society as a whole will be. They will overshadow any direct economic benefit from the industry, triggering a new drug epidemic in the country. That is why, we would never even consider such a decision.

"[...] Yes, of course, there will always be illegal gambling and people addicted to it, even if you ban it. Just as there are people addicted to heroin and fentanyl today. But the difference between current levels of use and what would follow if we legalized them tomorrow or made them available in school cafeterias is enormous. That difference with gambling will disappear if we ban it.

"It's one thing for every neighbourhood to have five gamblers who gather in a dark basement to play illegally. It's another thing entirely for every corner of the neighbourhood to have a gaming hall, a casino, and the inevitable quick-loan office right next to them.

"Only a particularly foolish person cannot think long-term about the colossal differences between a scourge being shunted into basements and it being legally widely accessible and promoted to the point of becoming a culture ingrained in the fabric of society."

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The Bulgarian National Television (BNT) reports that activists from the Nevidimi Zhivotni [invisible animals] NGO gathered in front of the National Assembly to protest the inhumane conditions in which calves are raised, specifically, the implementation of veal crates. The NGO's petition to abolish these crates has gathered more than 150,000 signatures.

ENVIRONMENT

Trud reports that Tryavna Municipality will establish a crisis taskforce to address the damages caused by the severe hailstorm on Tuesday. Hailstones the size of eggs struck the north-central town, shattering car windows and damaging roofs.

In an interview for BNT, Nikolay Stanchev, Chair Association of Bulgarian Insurers Board of Directors, said that insurance is the most effective form of protection for farmers. He stated: "[...] In recent years, we have observed an increasing frequency of natural disasters, and these are not limited to hailstorms and storms. We are also seeing wildfires in the summer. Unfortunately, the level of insurance coverage for property insurance in general, and agricultural insurance in particular, is still not as high as it should be." The expert said that in the case of uninsured land, damage caused by frost due to ice, hail, or natural disasters is covered either by the farmers themselves or by the State, if subsidies have been granted. He described this practice as extremely inefficient.