site.btaSystem for Agricultural Market Information Says Seasonality Drives Food Prices

Seasonality, rather than inflation, is currently driving Bulgaria’s consumer food market, with prices unchanged for 65% of monitored products, the System for Agricultural Market Information (SAPI) said on Thursday. The data, covering the 18th week of 2026 and current as at April 29, include all 28 regions and exclude in-store promotional prices.

The sharpest increases were registered for cabbage, which now sells at EUR 1.12 per kg, carrots at EUR 1.30 per kg, margarine at EUR 2.43 per item, pears at EUR 3.17 per kg, and imported grapes at EUR 5.85 per kg. SAPI said the rise in cabbage prices reflects a normal seasonal gap: winter stocks have been exhausted, while the new harvest has not yet reached the market. Regional differences remain significant, with cabbage in Yambol costing about half as much as in Shumen, mainly because of proximity to producers and lower transport costs.

At the same time, prices fell most visibly for heat-loving crops. Aubergines averaged EUR 2.93 per kg, new potatoes EUR 3.88 per kg, green peppers EUR 4.70 per kg, red peppers EUR 5.21 per kg, and greenhouse tomatoes EUR 3.32 per kg. Greenhouse output and early open-field production in Southern Bulgaria are already weighing on prices, SAPI said. The regional gap is again substantial: tomatoes in Yambol cost about half as much as those in Sofia.

Across the country, the lowest average product prices were reported in Razgrad, Shumen, Silistra, Targovishte and Sliven, while the highest were recorded in Montana, Vratsa, Pazardzhik, Smolyan and Vidin. The difference amounts to about EUR 1 per product, or a location-based mark-up of roughly 19%. SAPI attributed Razgrad’s lower price levels to its proximity to production areas and fewer intermediaries, while Montana’s higher prices reflect dependence on more distant deliveries and lower shop turnover.

Prices of staple goods remained broadly stable during the week. White bread was unchanged at EUR 1.53 per kg, although SAPI noted a rise in Haskovo that may affect the national average in the coming weeks. Sunflower oil also held steady at EUR 2.02 per litre. Eggs, size M, remained at EUR 0.29 each, chilled chicken at EUR 4.37 per kg, and type 500 flour at EUR 0.99 per kg. Sugar rose only marginally, by EUR 0.01, to EUR 1.26 per kg.

SAPI said the data point to a market shaped by the natural production cycle rather than by broad inflationary pressure. Price rises and falls are concentrated in seasonal goods, while the basic food basket remains protected, with bread, flour, eggs, sunflower oil and chicken keeping their prices this week.

For consumers, the agency said the main factor to watch is seasonality. Fruit and vegetables are usually cheapest, freshest and most nutritious at their peak, while the end of a season, as currently seen with cabbage and pears, is a signal to look for alternatives. Regional price differences can also bring real savings, especially for wholesale buyers or households able to organize joint purchases from production areas, where prices may be EUR 1-2 per kg lower.

SAPI also urged consumers to distinguish between temporary seasonal movements and more persistent structural factors. Sunflower oil prices, for example, are influenced by international exchanges and are therefore less likely to reverse quickly, while the fall in aubergine prices is seasonal and may change again within two or three weeks.

SAPI said individual price jumps should not automatically be treated as manipulation. A EUR 0.10 per kg increase in cabbage is biologically normal at this point in the season. Suspicion of manipulation is more justified when the same product is significantly more expensive in one shop than in another in the same city without an objective reason. In such cases, consumers should alert the Commission for Consumer Protection or the Commission on Protection of Competition.