site.btaPolitical Changes Lead to Decline in Social Tension in Q2 2026 - Poll

Political changes and the holding of elections have led to a decline in social tension in Bulgaria during the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous two quarters. The index, measured jointly by the Center for Analyses and Crisis Communications and the Myara Agency, stood at 6.22, according to the two organizations, which report the index every quarter. For comparison, the index was 6.88 directly before the elections.

The Social Tension Index ranges from 0 to 10. A value from 0 to 3.99 is considered low with fully controlled risks. A value between 4 and 5.99 is moderate with well-controlled risks. Anything between 6 and 7.99 is considered high with risks that are difficult to control, while values from 8 to 10 suggest a situation that is close to unmanageable.

The decline indicates some easing of public sentiment, but the index remains high. Expectations for the new government are high, and concerns regarding inflation, corruption, prices, and traffic accidents also remain high. The coming months will show whether the decline will become a sustainable trend, noted Alexander Hristov, Chair of the Center for Analyses and Crisis Communications, and Parvan Simeonov, head of Myara.

According to the study, there were no major social or political upheavals that would lead to a buildup of risks, but by some measures, the situation is stabilizing more quickly than by others. To some extent, tensions are also fuelled by international events, which inevitably affect Bulgaria as well.

Regarding political and economic indicators, the easing of tensions is primarily due to the increase in positive attitudes toward key institutions, which resulted from the election outcomes. There has been some improvement in expectations regarding the economy and personal finances. Although the new government was formed relatively recently, citizens have high expectations for prompt decisions; however, concerns about inflation and levels of corruption in the country remain high.

There has been a significant decline in the proportion of negative media coverage compared to positive coverage, a trend also influenced by the current social and political situation. On the other hand, negativity on social media remains high, a sign that public sentiment is stabilizing with a certain delay. The number of registered protests and their participants has decreased significantly, and there has been no substantial escalation or sharing of calls to action on social media, the analysis noted.