site.btaAnalyst Suggests Bulgaria, the Balkans Could Serve as Platform for Dialogue with Russia

Bulgaria and the Balkans could serve, if not as direct mediators, then at least as a platform for dialogue with Russia, political analyst Marian Karagyozov from the Institute of Balkan Studies and Center of Thracology at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences said during the conference “Towards Shared Regional Security for Peace, Stability and Cooperation in the Balkans and the Black Sea”, organized by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and the Institute for Economics and International Relations.

Karagyozov drew a parallel between the success of the South-East European Cooperation Process and the current geopolitical environment. He said that 30 years ago there had been relative US dominance, a willingness for constructive dialogue between the West and Russia, and broad consensus in the Balkans regarding European integration. According to him, all of these conditions have since changed, with violations of international law, only fleeting periods of cooperation between the United States and Russia, growing militarization in Europe, and increasing divisions in the Balkans between EU and NATO member states and those outside these structures.

The analyst argued that opportunities and reserves for positive change should be sought. He stressed that Bulgaria and the countries of the region had a shared interest in advocating for compliance with international public law and in opposing double standards, which he described as one of the reasons for declining trust in European institutions. Karagyozov also said that, in recent weeks and months, the question of who should engage in negotiations with Russia had been raised in Europe for the first time. In his words, thanks to their diversified business ties, Bulgaria and the SEECP countries could play a constructive role in facilitating contacts along both East-West and North-South axes.

Addressing defence spending, Karagyozov said that research offered mixed and inconclusive evidence regarding the impact of military expenditure on economic growth. In his view, any assessment of potential benefits should take into account how such spending is financed, how resources are allocated, what indirect costs may arise, and whether the region has an interest in entering a new arms race.

He further suggested that the SEECP framework could be used to explore confidence-building measures and to launch discussions on supplementing existing mechanisms regulating armaments in the Balkans.